In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, March 7th
In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, March 7th
Russian Peacekeepers in Transdniestria Face Isolation and Expulsion, The Race for Control of the Space Littoral in Modern Air Warfare, and other stories.
Russian Peacekeepers in Transdniestria Face Isolation and Expulsion
Transdniestria, the breakaway region of Moldova, may be the site of the next conflict in the former Soviet Union. The small force of Russian peacekeepers and other Russian troops protecting the region is now in a strategically desperate position, cut off from Russia by a hostile Ukraine and hopelessly outnumbered by the Ukrainian army as even the Moldovan government has called for the Russian force to be expelled.
The Transdniestrian issue is extraordinarily complicated, and the small force of Russian troops protecting the region is in a strategically desperate position. A conflict in the region would likely trigger a major escalation by Russia elsewhere, and an economic blockade of the region would also bring it to its knees. Despite the complexities, the dangers of the Transdniestrian issue have best been highlighted by numerous bomb attacks and political instability.
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New Zealand’s Foreign Policy in Flux
New Zealand's foreign policy is changing, as indicated by the comments of the country's new triumvirate of ministers, led by Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, and including Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Defense Minister Andrew Little.
Hipkins has taken a more ideological stance, promising to maintain support for Ukraine's defense of its homeland. Little's comments suggest that New Zealand may be considering sending light armored vehicles to Ukraine, while a Defense Policy Review is expected to recommend greater defense spending and closer cooperation with other countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Major spending decisions may be just months away, with the government's first budget since Hipkins took over as prime minister scheduled for May 17.
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US Defense Secretary in Iraq to Discuss the Future of US Troop Presence
The future of the US troop presence in Iraq was discussed during a meeting between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Austin stated that the remaining 2,500 troops in Iraq were prepared to stay at the behest of the Iraqi government. Sudani seeks a balanced approach to regional and international relations based on common interests and respect for sovereignty.
The stability of Iraq is crucial for the region's security, according to Sudani. While Iraq's security situation has stabilized, the central government remains dependent on outside support, making Iraq a site of contention between Washington and Tehran. US officials claim that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to arm and fund proxy militias in Iraq, posing a threat to US and coalition forces in the region. Austin also met with the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government Nechirvan Barzani to discuss the US troop presence in the country.
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Japan’s H3 Rocket Fails After Lift-off
Japan's attempt to launch its next-generation H3 rocket failed after liftoff, dealing a blow to the country's space and national security programs. The Japanese space agency (JAXA) ordered the rocket to self-destruct after the vehicle's second-stage engine failed to ignite moments after lift-off.
The H3's failure, coming three weeks after an aborted launch due to a separate glitch, was a setback for Japan's space program and possibly for its missile detection program. The rocket was carrying an Advanced Land Observation Satellite, tasked primarily with Earth observation and data collection for disaster response and map making, and an experimental infrared sensor designed to detect North Korean ballistic missile launches. The H3 rocket was built to enhance Japan's independent access to space and bolster its chances of capturing a bigger share of the global launch market from rivals. Its failure will have an impact on Japan's future space policy, space business, and technological competitiveness.
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The Race for Control of the Space Littoral in Modern Air Warfare
In recent years, the world has seen a shift in the way nations approach warfare. The emergence of new technologies has led to the development of novel tactics and strategies that aim to gain an asymmetric advantage. This is particularly true in the realm of air warfare, where traditional air superiority is no longer enough to guarantee victory. Recent events have highlighted the importance of gaining control of the airspace above and below the altitudes of conventional air superiority.
The recent downing of a Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon over the Atlantic Ocean has drawn attention to the emerging contest to control the space littoral — the airspace at altitudes between about 60,000 feet and 330,000 feet. While the use of high-altitude spy and military balloons is not new, the combination of technological advancements and commercial processes has enabled balloons guided by artificial intelligence to cheaply access and persist in the space littoral. The emergence of high-altitude balloons as a potential threat in the space littoral highlights the need for nations to develop new strategies and technologies to ensure air and space superiority. The contest for control of this new battlefield is likely to intensify in the coming years, with implications for the balance of power and stability in the world.