In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, March 30th
The UK Joins CPTPP Framework, China Conducts Historic Yuan-settled Energy Deal with the UAE, and other stories.
Ukraine's Adaptive Cyber Defence Proves Successful
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has highlighted a remarkable achievement in the field of cyber defence. Ukraine's layered and adaptive defence has proven to be a successful countermeasure against Russia's well-resourced and highly capable cyber offensive. This success story is the result of several factors, including international support, public-private partnerships, and strong leadership.
Ukraine has received significant international assistance in its cyber defence efforts, including from the United States, the European Union, and NATO. This support has helped Ukraine to strengthen its cyber infrastructure, enhance its cyber security capabilities, and provide training and support to its cyber defenders. Furthermore, public-private partnerships have helped Ukraine to develop new cyber security technologies and improve its cyber intelligence capabilities. The country's leadership has prioritized cyber security and appointed experienced cyber security professionals to key positions.
Read more about this story here.
The UK Joins CPTPP Framework
The United Kingdom's efforts to expand its trade relations outside of the European Union have taken a major step forward with its acceptance into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). While the economic impact of the deal may be limited in the short term, it marks a significant win for the UK, granting it access to markets beyond Europe and reducing its dependence on trade with the European Union.
The CPTPP's decision to welcome the UK as its first new member since its inception five years ago is a clear sign of the organization's efforts to expand its reach and promote free trade in the Asia-Pacific region. The agreement will also require the UK to adhere to the CPTPP's strict regulations, including various dispute mechanisms and phytosanitary standards. Following the formal announcement of the agreement, key documents will be translated into other languages before final signing takes place.
Read more about this story here.
Japanese Defence Firms Unveil Laser Anti-drone Weapons
The display of laser systems by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) and Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) at the DSEI Japan 2023 show marks a significant step forward in Tokyo's efforts to develop advanced defense capabilities. The prototypes of both systems were designed to shoot down incoming unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), providing Japan with the ability to counter a potential drone swarm attack by China. MHI officials stated that the company has been conducting outdoor field tests on its laser energy-based counter-unmanned aircraft system (C-UAS) for the past two years, while KHI is developing a more powerful 100-kilowatt vehicle-mounted shoot-down system.
Directed energy weapons (DEWs) are seen as a cost-effective alternative to traditional missile defence systems, as they require minimal stockpiling of ammunition and are cheap to fire. In contrast, traditional interceptor missiles can cost hundreds of millions per missile. Additionally, the development of advanced missiles, such as hypersonic ones, has prompted Japan to pursue directed energy programs, such as those on display at the DSEI Japan 2023 show. However, it is still unclear when a practical, higher-powered missile defence system will be developed, leaving Japan reliant on directed energy technologies to provide a reliable defence capability against potential drone-based threats.
Read more about this story here.
China Conducts Historic Yuan-settled Energy Deal with the UAE
China has conducted the first ever yuan-settled energy deal involving some 65,000 tons of Emirati liquified natural gas (LNG). China's yuan-settled energy deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a significant development in the country's ongoing efforts to promote its currency as a viable alternative to the US dollar in international trade.
This transaction was conducted through the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange by China National Offshore Oil Corporation and France's TotalEnergies. China has been in discussions with countries in the Middle East and North Africa about conducting trade using the yuan, and several countries in the region have expressed interest in this approach. The move towards yuan-settled trade is partly driven by a shortage of US dollars, as well as a desire to improve trade relationships with China. Chinese President Xi Jinping has encouraged Gulf countries to make use of the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange to carry out energy transactions in yuan, and it remains to be seen whether this trend will continue to gain momentum.
Read more about this story here.
Debate Surrounding the Efficacy of Aid for Ukraine
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has sparked a debate among NATO policymakers over the effectiveness of the aid provided to Kiev. The discussion centres on whether the aid has been well spent and if NATO members should continue to provide support to Ukraine. While some argue that NATO has no option but to support Ukraine due to the significant threat posed by Russia, others contend that a prolonged war in Ukraine has dangerous hidden costs.
The costs of a prolonged war in Ukraine, such as the risk of a direct Russian-NATO war, escalation risks, mounting casualties, and geopolitical and climate costs, may outweigh the benefits. Aggressive diplomacy and negotiations, even if arms supplies continue, may be the most viable path available to Ukraine and its backers. In contrast, some argue that the West have no viable option but to fully support Ukraine, and to continue to do so until a decisive defeat of Russia is achieved. While the debate continues, the conflict in Ukraine shows no sign of abating, and public support for aid to Ukraine is waning, raising questions about the future of the NATO’s involvement in the conflict.
Interesting. Food for thought: The problem of aid to Ukraine is not that of efficacy in defeating Russia but rather, the very real issue of aid corruption. Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in Europe, and we should not fool ourselves into relying on just the goodwill of Zelensky and his government.