In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, April 2nd
Russian Crude Flows Resume to India Despite Sanctions, A Glimpse of Southeast Asia's Shifting Allegiances, and other stories.
Russian Crude Flows Resume to India Despite Sanctions
Russian Sokol crude oil is flowing to India again despite tightened U.S. sanctions, with four tankers currently anchored near or heading towards Indian ports. The shipments, totalling around 4 million barrels, mark a resumption of the trade after Indian refiners shunned Sokol cargoes late last year amid difficulties caused by the sanctions, which targeted Russian state shipping firm Sovcomflot.
The Sokol trade appears to have restarted via third-party traders offering discounted cargoes, according to refinery executives. However, uncertainty remains over whether the shipments will successfully discharge, as one of the tankers involved, the Vostochny Prospect, is linked to Sovcomflot. Indian processors previously pledged to refuse oil carried on Sovcomflot ships to avoid falling afoul of U.S. sanctions. The developments highlight the evolving dynamics of Russian oil flows and sanctions enforcement, as Asian buyers continue to take advantage of discounted supplies.
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Seoul and London Forge a Strategic Partnership
South Korea and the United Kingdom are forging closer ties. The recent signing of the Downing Street Accord, elevating the bilateral relationship to a “Global Strategic Partnership,” reflects a convergence of interests and a shared commitment to upholding the rules-based international order. The partnership encompasses cooperation across various domains, including security, economy, digital governance, and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence.
The deepening South Korea-UK partnership has the potential to extend beyond the bilateral realm and shape the broader dynamics of the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions. Joint military exercises, defence industry collaboration, and the establishment of high-level dialogues signal a growing alignment between the two middle powers. As they strengthen ties with common allies like the United States and engage with multilateral forums such as the G7 and NATO, Seoul and London can play an outsized role in an era of intensifying great power competition. Their inclusive approach towards China also positions them as potential bridge-builders in a polarized geopolitical environment.
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Belarus Turns to India and Mongolia as Sanctions Bite
Belarus is intensifying its diplomatic outreach to countries in the Global South, particularly India and Mongolia, as it seeks to diversify its economic partnerships and mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik's recent visits to the two Asian nations underscore Minsk's pragmatic, non-ideological approach to foreign policy, prioritizing economic considerations over political alignments.
During his talks in New Delhi and Ulaanbaatar, Aleinik focused on expanding trade, investment, and technological cooperation in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure. Belarus views India's large market and growing influence in forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS as key opportunities. Similarly, joint projects in firefighting equipment and bilateral trade facilitation were high on the agenda in Mongolia. These efforts reflect Belarus's broader strategy of engaging emerging markets to offset its dependence on Russia and counter the effects of Western sanctions. While this economic reorientation poses significant challenges, Minsk sees it as the only viable path forward in the current international landscape.
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UNRWA on the Brink
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) is on the brink of collapse due to a severe funding crisis, exacerbated by recent US legislation blocking aid until 2025. The decision comes after Israel made accusations that UNRWA employees facilitated attacks in Gaza last October, leading to a pause in funding from the United States and other top donors. The timing couldn't be worse, as mass starvation sets in across Gaza following months of intense Israeli bombardment.
No other organization has the capacity to fill the void left by UNRWA, which has provided essential services to Palestinian refugees since 1949. The agency's history is one of navigating complex geopolitical tensions and periodic Israeli criticism, but the current crisis is unprecedented in scale. Israel's government is now actively working to undermine UNRWA, blocking aid shipments and denying visas to its staff. With Gaza on the verge of collapse and regional stability at risk, outside powers face a critical test in ensuring the survival of this humanitarian lifeline. Failure to do so could have disastrous consequences for millions of Palestinians and the broader Middle East.
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A Glimpse of Southeast Asia's Shifting Allegiances
A recent survey by the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute reveals a significant shift in Southeast Asian perceptions of the US-China rivalry, with a majority of respondents now preferring alignment with China over the United States. The survey, which polled individuals from the private and public sectors, academia, and research institutions across the 10 ASEAN countries, found that 50.5% would choose China if forced to pick sides.
This shift is particularly evident in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Laos, where strong economic ties and investments from China, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, have contributed to Beijing's growing influence. However, the survey also highlights that most Southeast Asians prefer not to choose sides, with 46.8% emphasizing the need for ASEAN to prioritize its resilience and unity in the face of pressure from both superpowers. The findings illustrate China's increasing economic and political clout in the region, with the majority of respondents viewing it as the most influential power in both domains. The survey results suggest a competitive geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia, as countries navigate the intensifying US-China rivalry while seeking to maintain their strategic autonomy and regional cohesion.
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The Moon as a New Geopolitical Frontier
The moon's potential as a source of valuable resources and strategic advantage is driving renewed interest in lunar exploration and development. Recent theories suggest the moon, formed from a chunk of Earth during a planetary collision long ago, may be rich in minerals that are vital to the global economy. Its frozen water reserves and capacity to capture vast amounts of solar energy could also support industrial activities and energy transmission back to Earth.
Beyond the economic incentives, the moon holds significant geopolitical and military importance. A well-defended lunar base could serve as a platform to dominate near-Earth space, with the ability to intercept attacks and house offensive weapons. The concept of “He who controls the moon controls Earth” underscores the strategic value of the ultimate high ground. As technologies advance, the notion of humans living and working on the moon to exploit its resources and strategic position, akin to European colonial expeditions seeking wealth, appears increasingly plausible. The pursuit of lunar resources and the extension of geopolitical competition to space may define a new era in human history.