In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, April 3rd
NATO Moves Toward Long-Term Ukraine Support, Georgia-Ukraine Relations Hit New Low, and other stories.
NATO Moves Toward Long-Term Ukraine Support
NATO is poised to take on a more direct role in coordinating long-term military support for Ukraine, as the alliance grapples with the realities of a protracted war and potential shifts in US policy. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has proposed a plan for NATO to manage the supply of weapons, ammunition, and equipment to Ukraine, aiming to ensure “reliable and predictable security assistance” and reduce reliance on ad-hoc, short-term commitments.
While the move would not involve NATO directly providing lethal aid, it represents a significant evolution in the alliance's involvement. Under the plan, NATO would assume some coordination responsibilities from the US-led Ramstein group, though the top military commander would remain the same. However, the proposed $107 billion, five-year fund has met resistance from some members, with Hungary voicing opposition to NATO's increased role. Stoltenberg expressed confidence in addressing these concerns, emphasizing that the plan does not involve a NATO combat presence in Ukraine. As negotiations continue ahead of the July summit, the final shape of the proposal remains uncertain, with some urging caution on making promises that may prove difficult to keep.
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US Casts Doubt on Binding Nature of Gaza Ceasefire Resolution
The US State Department's characterization of the recent UN Security Council resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza as “non-binding” has ignited a debate among legal experts and diplomats. While US spokesperson Matthew Miller asserted that the resolution does not impose new obligations, representatives from China, Mozambique, and the UK, as well as the UN Secretary General's office, have maintained that Security Council resolutions are binding under international law.
The US stance reflects an attempt to selectively interpret international law to advance its interests and protect Israel. This approach risks eroding the normative power of the international legal system and reinforcing perceptions of international law as an instrument of political power for the US and its allies. The dispute centres on the interpretation of the UN Charter and the language used in the resolution. Some argue that only resolutions explicitly referencing Chapter 7 of the charter or using the term “decides” are binding. However, scholars like Yale's Asli Bâli and Washburn University's Craig Martin contend that the resolution's “demand” for a ceasefire creates a clear obligation for member states to comply. They point to previous resolutions treated as binding and enforceable despite lacking the word “decide.”
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India Balancing Strategic Partnerships and Vulnerabilities
India is reevaluating its foreign policy priorities amid heightened strategic vulnerabilities. As outlined by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, India has forged an unprecedented strategic partnership with the West, particularly the US, driven by the recognition of Washington's unparalleled global influence. Simultaneously, India's complex relationship with China, characterized by border disputes and occasional clashes, underscores the importance of strategic engagement with the US to ensure border security.
However, these geopolitical upheavals have introduced new challenges. India's heavy reliance on Russian arms and ammunition faces uncertainty as Moscow struggles to maintain supplies due to its own war demands. Russia's growing economic ties with China further complicate the dynamics, making it unlikely for Moscow to prioritize India in a conflict scenario. Moreover, India's potential strategic partners, including the US and Israel, may face limitations in providing arms support due to their engagements in Ukraine and Gaza, respectively. India's perceived alignment with the West has also alienated it from the Global South, potentially undermining its standing among developing nations. As India navigates this shifting landscape, it must carefully calibrate its foreign policy to address emerging vulnerabilities and maintain its global influence.
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Ukraine's Power Grid Battered by Russian Strikes
Ukraine's electricity system is reeling from another wave of targeted Russian attacks, yet the country's grid operator insists a total collapse remains unlikely. The latest strikes damaged five of six power plants operated by Ukraine's largest private utility, DTEK, which reported losing 80% of its generation capacity. Another utility, Centrenergo, said one of its plants with 10 generation units was completely destroyed. The attacks also hit distribution networks, forcing rolling blackouts in three regions.
Despite the extensive damage, Ukrenergo head Volodymyr Kudritsky remains defiant, asserting that Ukraine is “definitely not one step away from collapse.” He suggests that protecting the system will require rethinking the generation mix, potentially replacing large, vulnerable power plants with smaller, dispersed facilities. As Russian strikes grow more precise and concentrated, Ukraine faces a daunting task in maintaining reliable electricity supply. The war has also spurred interest in decentralized solar power, though challenges persist in scaling up capacity amid the turmoil of war.
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Limits to Deterring Non-State Armed Groups
Recent US strikes against Houthi bases in Yemen and Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria highlight the challenges of deterring non-state armed groups (NSAGs). While these actions temporarily reduced attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, they failed to alter the groups' long-term hostile intent, as evidenced by subsequent attacks. The limited effectiveness of such interventions raises questions about the applicability of traditional deterrence strategies to NSAGs.
NSAGs' resilience stems from their local support base, adaptability, and skill in exploiting external attacks to bolster their narratives. Efforts to deter them through force often prove counterproductive, driving recruitment and anti-Western sentiment. Moreover, despite military pressure, many NSAGs continue to accumulate sophisticated weaponry and consolidate power as alternatives to the state. Engaging with NSAGs' local concerns and objectives, such as the Houthis' desire for a settlement in Yemen, may offer more promising avenues for modulating their behaviour. While distasteful, the alternative is persisting with a strategy that delivers more comfort than effect to the US and its allies.
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Georgia-Ukraine Relations Hit New Low
Tbilisi and Kyiv are at odds over their respective approaches to Russia's war in Ukraine, with tensions reaching a new nadir. The latest flashpoint came as a Georgian parliamentary initiative supporting EU accession for Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine failed to secure backing from the Ukrainian delegation. Ukrainian representatives cited Georgia's ambiguous stance on the war and its alleged assistance to Moscow in circumventing sanctions as reasons for withholding support.
The rift has been exacerbated by Georgia's ruling party objecting to the inclusion of former Georgian officials, now working for Ukraine's government, in delegations to Europe. Tbilisi argues this undermines the rule of law, as some of these individuals have been sentenced to prison in Georgia. Ukraine has laid out conditions for normalizing relations, including releasing ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili, suspending Russia flights and ceasing sanction-avoidance facilitation. As Moscow actively exploits these divisions to weaken regional solidarity behind Ukraine, the Georgian government's apparent openness to expanded cooperation with Russia risks deepening the falling out with Ukraine.