In Geopolitics Today: Monday, April 8th
Mexico Cuts Ties with Ecuador After Embassy Raid, Russia Seeks Petrol Reserves from Kazakhstan, and other stories.
Mexico Cuts Ties with Ecuador After Embassy Raid
Mexico has severed diplomatic relations with Ecuador after Ecuadorian police stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, who had been granted asylum. Foreign Minister Alicia Bárcena blasted the move as a flagrant violation of the Vienna Convention and said Mexico would take the case to the International Court of Justice. President López Obrador slammed Ecuador's actions as an egregious breach of Mexican sovereignty.
The embassy assault has sparked a major diplomatic crisis, with Mexico evacuating its personnel and Ecuador defending the raid by claiming Glas posed a flight risk. Nicaragua joined Mexico in severing ties, while other Latin American states and the United States have only denounced the move to varying degrees so far. The incident lays bare the raw tensions between the two nations, inflamed by Mexico's denunciation of the election that brought Ecuador's President Noboa to power. As the crisis deepens, it threatens to further roil the region and establish a dangerous precedent of disregard for long-standing diplomatic protections. The looming court battle will test the power — and limits — of international law to constrain state aggression.
Read more about this story here.
Azerbaijan Pivots to Central Asia
As Russia's invasion of Ukraine reshapes the geopolitical contours of Eurasia, Azerbaijan is repositioning itself as a strategic bridge to Central Asia, a region that has emerged as a key battleground in a new “Great Game” between Russia, China, and Western powers. Baku, long focused on resolving the Karabakh conflict, is now seeking to diversify its foreign policy and economic ties, with Central Asia offering a promising avenue for partnership based on shared Turkic roots, cultural affinities, and economic interests.
Azerbaijan's pivot to Central Asia is being driven by a confluence of factors. The Organization of Turkic States (OTS), of which Azerbaijan is a key member, is evolving from a platform for cultural exchange to a more robust framework for political and economic integration. Joint infrastructure projects like the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route are gaining strategic significance as the EU pledges billions to develop alternative connectivity routes bypassing Russia. As a vital link in this Europe-Asia transport network, Azerbaijan is poised to play a central role in shaping the region's connectivity. Baku's growing engagement with Central Asia is a two-way street. For Azerbaijan, deepening ties with Central Asia offers a path to geopolitical diversification that avoids the risks of aligning too closely with either Russian-led Eurasian structures or Western power blocs. Azerbaijan, it seems, aims to become an indispensable player in the unfolding geopolitical competition over Eurasian heartland.
Read more about this story here.
Russia Sees Opportunity in Africa's Growing Nuclear Energy Demand
As Russia seeks to expand its economic partnerships, it is prioritizing nuclear energy exports to Africa, where many nations are turning to atomic power to meet rising electricity demand and industrialization goals with reliable energy. Rosatom, Russia's state nuclear company and a major player in the global market for fuel, enrichment, and plant construction, has recently inked agreements with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Algeria, complementing its landmark $30 billion deal to build four reactors in Egypt.
This confluence of interests creates opportunities for mutually beneficial collaboration between Russia and African nations. Russian financing and expertise can help accelerate the deployment of nuclear power plants to expand energy access on the continent. The long-term nature of these projects, exemplified by Egypt's $25 billion loan from Russia to be repaid over 35 years, establishes Russia as a committed partner in Africa's nuclear energy build out. However, leaders will need to weigh the benefits of Russian partnership against potential risks, such as overreliance on a single supplier. Policymakers may seek to diversify their nuclear collaborations to ensure resilience and maintain negotiating leverage. They will also need to consider the possibility of secondary sanctions exposure in deals with Russian firms.
Read more about this story here.
Ethiopia Faces Mounting Crises
Nearly two years after the formal end of the Tigray war, Ethiopia is grappling with a patchwork of destabilizing conflicts that threaten to unravel the country's fragile peace. In Amhara and Oromia, the nation's two most populous regions, anti-government insurgencies have rendered vast areas ungovernable, while much of the north teeters on the brink of famine. Despite the urgent humanitarian crisis, with an estimated 30 million people in need of food assistance, aid efforts remain woefully inadequate to avert widespread suffering.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has pursued an aggressive foreign policy that has strained relations with Ethiopia's neighbours. Bolstered by financial and military support from the United Arab Emirates, Abiy has stoked tensions with Somalia over the status of Somaliland, intervened in Sudan's civil war, and engaged in a war of words with former ally Eritrea. These moves have drawn in regional powers like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, which are now funnelling arms to various factions, raising the spectre of a broader proxy conflict in the Horn of Africa. As Ethiopia's internal crises multiply and regional tensions flare, the country's federalist system is under unprecedented strain, with Ethiopia's patchwork of conflicts threatening to escalate into a wider unravelling.
Read more about this story here.
Russia Seeks Petrol Reserves from Kazakhstan
Russia has requested Kazakhstan to establish an emergency reserve of 100,000 tons of petrol, ready to supply if required, as Moscow grapples with potential fuel shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries. Reuters reports that a deal to tap into Kazakhstan's reserves has already been agreed upon, though Russian and Kazakh energy ministries have not officially confirmed the arrangement. This move comes as a consequence of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining capacity.
The request to Kazakhstan is indicative of the severity of Russia's fuel supply concerns. In March, Russia imposed a six-month ban on petrol exports to prevent acute shortages, though exempting members of the Eurasian Economic Union like Kazakhstan. However, the ban could be expanded if the situation deteriorates further. As of April 5, Kazakhstan's reserves stood at 307,700 tons of Ai-92 gasoline, 58,000 tons of Ai-95 gasoline, 435,300 tons of diesel, and 101,000 tons of jet fuel. Russia's pursuit of these reserves, along with supply assistance from Belarus, is a clear indication that its fuel supply chain is under strain as a direct consequence of the war with Ukraine and the resulting damage to its refining infrastructure.
Read more about this story here.
Taiwan Accelerates Unmanned Surface Vessel Production
Taiwan is ramping up the production of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) to bolster its asymmetric warfare capabilities against a potential Chinese invasion. Taking inspiration from Ukraine's effective use of USVs against Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Taiwan aims to deploy swarms of these low-cost, remotely-controlled vessels to target incoming warships during an amphibious assault. The National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology has initiated a $25 million program to develop and produce at least 200 USVs by 2026, with the private sector also contributing to the effort.
While USVs offer advantages such as cost-effectiveness, minimal operating expenses, and the ability to overwhelm enemy defences through sheer numbers, they are not a silver bullet solution. USVs must be used in conjunction with other asymmetric weapons like naval mines and anti-ship missiles to effectively counter an invasion fleet. Additionally, USVs face vulnerabilities such as harsh maritime conditions, potential cyberattacks, and jamming of their communication links. Despite these challenges, Taiwan's investment in USV technology underscores its strategic shift towards asymmetric warfare capabilities as it seeks to deter or defeat a numerically superior adversary.