In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, April 9th
Turkey Restricts Exports to Israel, Iraq Works to Revive Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline, and other stories.
Turkey Restricts Exports to Israel
Turkey has announced restrictions on exports to Israel in 54 categories, including iron and steel products, jet fuel, construction equipment, bricks, chemicals, and pesticides. The move comes as Ankara faces increasing domestic pressure to demonstrate its opposition to the ongoing war in Gaza. The Turkish Ministry of Trade stated that the export curbs would remain in place until Israel agreed to a cease-fire in Gaza and allowed more humanitarian aid into the territory.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan accused Israel of impeding Turkey's attempts to airlift aid to Gazans, prompting the decision to take “step by step” measures against Israel. While the export restrictions are more symbolic than impactful, given that Turkey exported $5.4 billion worth of goods to Israel last year, they highlight Ankara's increasingly assertive position against Israel. This stance is partly aimed at appeasing the government's constituents, who have expressed dissatisfaction with Turkey's response to Israeli military actions. In response to the Turkish move, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced that Israel would ban certain Turkish imports and leverage ties with US associations to discourage investment in Turkey. Israel also requested that the United States impose sanctions on Turkey, though this reliance on the United States underscores the limits of its ability to engage in a trade war with Turkey.
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Hezbollah Threatens Intervention in Potential Iran-Israel War
In a significant escalation of rhetoric, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has vowed to intervene should a broader conflict erupt between Iran and Israel in the aftermath of last week's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The attack, carried out by Israel, resulted in the deaths of seven members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Nasrallah's televised address described the attack as a “turning point” and warned that Hezbollah would take action without constraints if Israel attacks Iran, following Tehran's response.
Hezbollah's potential intervention in a wider Iran-Israel conflict would likely have a major impact, given the group's status as the world's most heavily armed non-state actor, with an estimated arsenal of up to 200,000 missiles and rockets. The movement's allies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen could also join the fray, further complicating the situation and potentially drawing the United States into the conflict. The Israeli military may be overstretched in a full-fledged war with Hezbollah, making it unlikely for Israel to succeed without direct US intervention. As tensions continue to rise along the Israeli-Lebanon border, with Israel announcing a new offensive phase in its operations against Hezbollah, the risk of a broader regional conflagration looms large.
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EU and US Deepen Support for Armenia's Western Shift
The European Union and the United States are actively encouraging Armenia's geopolitical reorientation towards the West, which has been underway since 2018. This support was demonstrated by significant aid packages pledged during a high-level meeting in Brussels, with the EU offering €270 million over four years and the US committing an additional $65 million to bolster reform in Armenia and reduce ties with Russia.
The EU and US's proactive engagement in Armenia has drawn sharp criticism from Russia and Azerbaijan, who view the move as a destabilizing force in the South Caucasus region. Moscow labelled the aid package as “irresponsible and destructive,” warning of potential negative consequences, while Baku expressed concern that the EU's support for Armenia could compromise its ability to mediate a lasting peace settlement between the two countries. The West's increasing involvement in Armenia's geopolitical realignment has implications for the region's balance of power and the ongoing peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. As Yerevan seeks to deepen its ties with the EU and the US, navigating the competing interests of regional powers and managing domestic pushback will remain a key challenge.
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Iraq Works to Revive Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline
Iraq is working to repair the long-shuttered Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which could allow Baghdad to export up to 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to Turkey by the end of the month. The move is likely to strain relations with both foreign oil companies operating in the region and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), as it provides an alternative route to the currently closed pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdish region.
The revival of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which has been inoperable for a decade due to attacks by militants, would enable Baghdad to reassert control over a significant portion of the country's oil exports. This development could force foreign companies to negotiate directly with the federal government to sell their oil via the restored pipeline, potentially undermining the KRG's authority and revenue streams. The dispute is a complex web of political and economic interests in Iraq's oil sector, with the KRG heavily reliant on oil income and Baghdad seeking to maintain its sovereignty over the country's natural resources. As negotiations between the two sides have stalled, the reopening of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline could provide Baghdad with increased leverage, while also risking further instability in the region if a mutually acceptable resolution cannot be reached.
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Ukraine's Air Defence Challenges Strain Alliance Cohesion
Ukraine is facing a growing shortage of air defence missiles that threatens to undermine its ability to protect key infrastructure and maintain battlefield momentum. President Zelenskiy's warning of a potential depletion of missile stocks is a plea for increased Western support, particularly in the form of advanced Patriot systems. However, Ukraine's allies are grappling with their own constraints, as emphasized by German Foreign Minister Baerbock's revelation of Germany's nearly exhausted Patriot stockpiles.
This tension points to deeper challenges in alliance cohesion and burden-sharing as the conflict drags on. While the United States and its NATO allies remain committed to supporting Ukraine, differing threat perceptions, resource constraints, and domestic political considerations complicate the coordination of a robust, sustained response. Moreover, Russia's pivot to a strategy of attritional warfare aims to exploit these fissures while eroding Ukraine's resilience and NATO resolve over time. As Ukraine's air defence requirements mount, the strain on finite missile stockpiles raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the current approach and may force difficult prioritization decisions.
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Indonesia Signs $2 Billion Deal for French Scorpene Submarines
Indonesia has signed a contract with France's Naval Group to purchase two Scorpene submarines in a deal valued at around $2 billion. The most notable aspect of the agreement is that both submarines will be built in Indonesia by state-owned shipbuilder PT PAL at its facility in Surabaya. This represents a significant step forward in Indonesia's efforts to develop its domestic defence industry capabilities through transfers of technology.
The Scorpene deal consolidates the increasingly close defence ties between France and Indonesia, building on existing contracts such as Dassault's $8 billion agreement to deliver 42 Rafale fighter jets to the Indonesian Air Force. However, the submarine program also carries risks, as Indonesia's Scorpenes plan to use a relatively new lithium-ion battery system, with Indonesia serving as a test case for Naval Group. While the localization of production aligns with Indonesia's strategic goals, the program could prove more costly and complicated than initially envisioned, as evidenced by Malaysia's troubled experience with a similar Naval Group littoral combat ship deal. The success or failure of the Scorpene program will have significant implications for Indonesia's military modernization and industrial development ambitions.