In Geopolitics Today: Monday, September 9th
US Cements Lasting Military Control in Central Pacific, Central Asia-Afghanistan Trade Surges, and other stories.
US Cements Lasting Military Control in Central Pacific
The United States has solidified permanent military control over Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia through renegotiated Compacts of Free Association. These agreements grant the US “strategic denial” rights across a vast oceanic area, allowing Washington to prohibit other countries' military access. In exchange, the US provides $7.1 billion in funding over 20 years and visa-free residency in the United States.
This arrangement, unprecedented in its concession of sovereignty, faces minimal opposition from compact state leaders, who now prioritise economic assistance over autonomy. US officials openly acknowledge their unilateral right to maintain military control even if compacts are terminated. The agreements include mechanisms such as Mutual Security Agreements and defence vetoes that ensure US control persists regardless of compact status. This shift marks a departure from previous negotiations where compact states sought to safeguard their sovereignty, signalling a new phase in US-Pacific relations with long-term implications for regional security architecture.
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European Navies Struggle to Protect Critical Maritime Infrastructure
European navies face mounting challenges in protecting critical maritime infrastructure amid rising threats and dwindling legacy capabilities. Recent incidents, including damage to undersea pipelines and cables in northern European waters, have highlighted vulnerabilities. While NATO has increased maritime patrols and established a dedicated centre for undersea threats, navies are struggling to introduce new surveillance and monitoring technologies.
The UK Royal Navy exemplifies these difficulties. Its new Multi-role Ocean Surveillance Ship and mine warfare prototype face delays due to equipment issues and personnel shortages. Meanwhile, legacy platforms have significantly decreased, with research and surveillance fleets reduced by 50% since 2022 and mine-countermeasures vessels by 56% since 2016. Across Europe, research and surveillance vessel numbers have dropped 13% since 2014, with a 25% decline in northern waters. As navies transition to new technologies like uninhabited underwater vehicles, they will be working to balance protecting vast networks of critical maritime infrastructure with other pressing demands, both near and far.
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Middle East Powers Gain Ground in South Caucasus
Russia's long-standing dominance in the South Caucasus is eroding, creating space for Middle Eastern powers to expand their influence. Moscow's invasion of Ukraine has depleted its regional resources and prestige, accelerating this shift. Turkey and Iran have been quick to fill the emerging power vacuum, with Ankara strengthening its alliance with Azerbaijan and Tehran deepening ties with Armenia.
The Gulf Cooperation Council states are also increasing their presence, particularly in Azerbaijan and Georgia. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are making significant investments in energy and infrastructure projects. Russia has effectively dominated the South Caucasus for over two centuries. The current shift towards increased Middle Eastern influence represents a significant change to this long-established geopolitical reality. The development of new trade routes, such as the Middle Corridor, is attracting further interest from Middle Eastern powers seeking to benefit from Eurasian connectivity. As Russian influence declines, South Caucasus nations are pursuing more diverse foreign policies, balancing multiple regional powers to maintain their autonomy.
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Vietnam-Philippines Maritime Ties Grow
Vietnam and the Philippines have strengthened maritime ties to bolster deterrence against Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. In August, their coast guards conducted their first-ever joint drills in disputed waters, setting aside their own overlapping claims. The nations plan to sign a memorandum of understanding on defence cooperation by year's end, potentially forming a de facto maritime alignment.
This middle-power collaboration demonstrates solidarity against Beijing's approach and could inspire regional involvement from powers like Australia and India. However, the partnership remains largely symbolic. Joint exercises focus on non-sensitive issues like firefighting and search and rescue, involving minimal naval assets. Vietnam's cautious approach reflects its geopolitical vulnerability to Chinese pressure both at sea and on its land border. Unlike the Philippines, which has a U.S. security alliance, Vietnam adheres to a “Four No's” policy of non-alignment. Hanoi's delicate balancing act with Beijing, emphasizing “cooperation and struggle,” contrasts with Manila's more proactive stance, limiting the scope of their maritime cooperation against China.
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Central Asia-Afghanistan Trade Surges
Afghanistan's trade with its Central Asian neighbours is surging. Uzbekistan opened the Termez International Trade Center in August, following $2.5 billion in agreements with Kabul. Afghan-Uzbek trade hit $266 million in 2023, a six-fold increase. Similar growth marks ties with Turkmenistan ($481 million) and Kazakhstan ($987.4 million). The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline and Trans-Afghan Corridor further boost regional connectivity.
This economic rapprochement reflects Central Asia's realpolitik towards Taliban rule. Kazakhstan has delisted the Taliban as terrorists; Uzbekistan already advocated for talks pre-takeover. Turkmenistan's neutral stance aligns with its broader foreign policy. Yet obstacles persist: Western sanctions over Taliban policies could stifle investment. Afghan internal rifts between Kabul and Kandahar power centres threaten cohesive governance as well. Pakistani instability, marked by economic crisis and political polarization, endangers cross-border initiatives. The region teeters between economic promise and geopolitical peril.
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Russia Promotes Nuclear Power Solutions in Central Asia
Rosatom, Russia's state nuclear entity, is actively marketing atomic energy to address Central Asia's growing power shortages. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan are considering nuclear options to meet rising energy demands. Rosatom is promoting its RITM-200N small reactors as a solution, emphasizing their suitability for the region's seismic conditions.
The company claims these reactors can withstand earthquakes up to 8 on the Richter scale and highlights their “green” credentials, noting the absence of greenhouse gas emissions. Uzbekistan has already signed an agreement for up to six low-power reactors, while Kyrgyzstan is in discussions. Kazakhstan plans a referendum on nuclear power in October. As Central Asian countries weigh their energy options, Rosatom's extensive global experience in nuclear plant operations positions it well to be a significant player in the region's evolving energy landscape.
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