In Geopolitics Today: Monday, January 13th
Syria's New Leaders Push for Sanctions Relief, Pakistani Taliban Threatens Military-Linked Businesses, and other stories.
Syria's New Leaders Push for Sanctions Relief
Arab and EU diplomats convened in Riyadh on January 12, 2025, to address Syria's transition after Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) overthrew Bashar al-Assad's government in December. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud called for lifting international sanctions that have restricted Syria's economy since 1979. EU Vice-President Kaja Kallas indicated willingness to ease restrictions if Syria's new HTS-led government demonstrates inclusivity and minority protection. The EU will meet in Brussels on January 27 to evaluate sanctions policy.
Western powers are adjusting their approach to post-Assad Syria through targeted sanctions relief. The US issued a six-month exemption for transactions with Syrian governing institutions, while Germany, France, and Italy support relaxing EU sanctions. HTS faces pressure to improve economic conditions as Syria grapples with fuel shortages, food insecurity, and limited access to international financial channels. The new administration's ability to meet Western governance benchmarks while maintaining its authority will determine the pace and scope of sanctions relief. Regional powers led by Saudi Arabia seek swift economic stabilization to prevent further refugee outflows and contain Iranian influence.
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Ukrainian Drones Target Key Russian Gas Pipeline
Russia reported disrupting a Ukrainian drone strike targeting TurkStream's gas compressor station in the Krasnodar region on January 15, 2025. Nine drones attempted to hit the facility that regulates gas flow from Russia's Russkaya station to Turkey's Kıyıköy terminal. Moscow claims minor damage was repaired quickly. The attack targeted one of Russia's two remaining pipeline routes to Europe after Ukraine ended gas transit agreements in December 2024.
TurkStream delivers 31% of Russian gas imports to EU markets, primarily serving Hungary, Serbia and southeastern Europe. With Ukrainian transit halted, and Nord Stream damaged, Europe's LNG imports now account for 39% of Russian gas supplies, at higher costs than pipeline delivery. Germany, which ended nuclear power generation, has entered recession amid industrial production slowdowns tied to energy costs. The disruption of Russian pipeline infrastructure has accelerated divisions between EU states maintaining Russian gas imports and those pursuing complete energy decoupling from Moscow.
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Pakistani Taliban Threatens Military-Linked Businesses
The Pakistani Taliban (TTP) expanded its targeting scope on January 5, 2025, threatening military-linked businesses and banks in Rawalpindi, including National Logistics Corp, Frontier Works Organization, and Askari Bank. This marks a departure from TTP's earlier policy of targeting only security forces. The threat follows Pakistan's December 24 airstrikes in Afghanistan, sparking border clashes between Pakistani forces and Afghan Taliban units until December 28.
The deteriorating security situation exposes the limits of Pakistan's options against TTP. Failed ceasefire negotiations, mass Afghan deportations, and limited airstrikes have not deterred attacks, with Pakistani security forces suffering 527 - 685 casualties in 2024 — their highest toll in a decade. The Afghan Taliban continues providing TTP with weapons, cross-border attack support, and sanctuary. China's increasing pressure on Kabul to address militant threats, including conditioning future investment on security cooperation, has not altered this dynamic. While neither Pakistan nor the Afghan Taliban seeks outright conflict, their fundamental disagreement points to increased militant activity in Pakistan's northwest and major cities, potentially forcing a broader Pakistani military response that could destabilize the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.
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Taliban Expands Mining Operations
Afghanistan is expanding its mining sector revenues through a mix of large international deals and local extraction projects. Under new Mines Minister Hedayatullah Badri, Afghanistan signed three deals worth $1.2 billion and 167 smaller mining contracts between September 2023-2024. Notable developments include a $1 billion natural gas project with Uzbekistan's Ariel Group and increased activity in gemstone-rich regions like Panjshir Province, where 10,000 miners work in 550 emerald mines.
These mining initiatives reflect the Taliban's strategy to mitigate Western sanctions while building regional economic ties, particularly with China, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. However, major projects face significant infrastructure constraints — the Mes Aynak copper mine lacks power and processing facilities, while the TAPI gas pipeline remains stalled without Indian support. Current mining revenues do help maintain state stability, Afghanistan's path to economic self-sufficiency is limited by inadequate transport infrastructure and power systems needed to support large-scale mineral extraction. The regime's success in smaller mining operations suggests a focus on achievable gains rather than transformative projects requiring massive foreign investment.
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Singapore-Malaysia Launch Special Economic Zone
Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong met with Malaysian counterparts for their Annual Retreat, marking efforts to deepen bilateral cooperation amid shifting regional dynamics. The meeting emphasized plans for a new Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone and builds on strong existing trade ties, with bilateral trade reaching USD 78.59 billion from January to November 2024, up 6.7% from 2023. Wong's visit reflects Singapore's push to strengthen regional partnerships while maintaining its traditional security relationship with the US, which maintains a significant economic presence in Singapore with USD 309.4 billion in FDI as of 2022.
The summit signals both countries' recognition of their strategic interdependence as they navigate great power competition between the US and China. Singapore seeks to diversify its supply chains and food security options through Malaysia, while maintaining its role as a premier regional hub. For Malaysia, partnership with Singapore offers access to advanced technological capabilities and investment opportunities, particularly in semiconductors and digital economy sectors. The Special Economic Zone represents an attempt to transcend historical bilateral tensions by focusing on mutual economic benefits, though underlying security concerns persist. Both nations appear to be hedging against regional uncertainties by deepening their cooperation while maintaining their respective strategic autonomy.
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Azerbaijan Demands Armenian Corridor
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev delivered a confrontational January 7 interview targeting Armenia, threatening intervention if the Armenian leadership doesn't change course. This rhetoric marks a sharp departure from recent progress in peace negotiations following Azerbaijan's military victory in Nagorno-Karabakh in late 2023. Aliyev specifically criticized Western arms sales to Armenia and renewed demands for a sovereign corridor through Armenian territory to Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave.
The shift in Aliyev's stance reflects new pressures to Azerbaijan's strategic position. His emphasis on EU energy partnerships while criticizing Western support for Armenia suggests an attempt to leverage Azerbaijan's role as a gas supplier to influence European diplomatic alignments. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan's response points to Yerevan's strategy of maintaining diplomatic momentum despite provocations. With Azerbaijan's 2025 defence budget set to more than double Armenia's, and Russia's regional influence potentially declining, the peace process enters a critical phase where economic leverage and international alignments may prove as significant as military capabilities.