In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, January 16th
Rwanda Expands Military Footprint Across Africa, Armenia Pivots West While Maintaining Russian Economic Ties, and other stories.
Rwanda Expands Military Footprint Across Africa
Rwanda has expanded its role as a regional security provider, with troops deployed across multiple African nations and growing Western support. A November 2023 EU funding package of 20 million euros for Rwanda's counter-insurgency mission in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado region builds on previous commitments. Rwanda's military footprint now extends across Chad, Liberia, Central Africa Republic, Mali, Mozambique, and Sudan, with total deployments approaching 90,000 troops.
This security engagement strategy aims to enhance Rwanda's regional influence while addressing perceived threats, particularly in eastern Congo where Kigali has been supporting M23 rebels. Rwanda's deployments often align with economic interests — in Central African Republic, military support has been followed by mining concessions and over 100 Rwandan company registrations since 2019. However, this expanding presence faces growing risks including local resentment, competition with Russian paramilitaries, and potential backlash if casualties mount in high-risk areas like northern Benin. These challenges could undermine Rwanda's carefully cultivated image as a stabilizing regional force.
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India Demonstrates Space-Docking Capabilities
India successfully conducted its first space docking mission on January 16, joining the US, Russia and China in demonstrating this strategic capability. The Space Docking Experiment (SpaDeX) manoeuvred two 220 kg satellites to connect 470 km above Earth, a critical technology for space station assembly, orbital refuelling, and complex missions like the planned Chandrayaan-4 lunar sample return. The achievement advances India's ambitious roadmap, including crewed missions and its first space station by 2040.
The breakthrough strengthens India's position as an emerging space power while showcasing its hybrid development model. Despite a 55% drop in private space investment to $59.1m in 2024, ISRO integrated two dozen private sector experiments into the mission. This public-private approach, backed by increased government funding of 10 billion rupees ($116m), aims to build a complete space ecosystem competing with established powers. For complex missions like space docking, India continues to deliver strategic capabilities at significantly lower costs through innovative engineering and efficient mission design.
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UAE's Masdar Commits £15bn to Philippines Renewable Expansion
Masdar, the UAE's clean energy company, signed a £15 billion investment agreement with the Philippines on January 16 to develop renewable energy projects. The deal targets 1 gigawatt of solar, wind, and battery storage capacity by 2030, scaling to 10 GW within a decade. This investment supports Manila's Energy Transition Program, which aims for 35% renewable power generation by 2030 and 50% by 2040. The agreement follows Masdar's established presence in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia's largest floating solar facility and a 10 GW clean energy partnership with Malaysia announced in 2023.
The Philippines deal marks another strategic expansion by Abu Dhabi's state energy firms into Asia's renewable sector, where demand growth outpaces Western markets. Through Masdar, Abu Dhabi's oil wealth is being systematically redeployed to secure dominant positions in emerging clean energy markets - targeting 35% market share in Middle East renewables, 20% in Europe, and 25% in US capacity by 2030. For the Philippines, the investment addresses critical power supply challenges in an archipelago where geography and infrastructure gaps have historically complicated energy distribution. The partnership also strengthens UAE-Philippines bilateral ties amid broader Gulf economic engagement with Southeast Asia.
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Russia’s Central Asian Influence Remains Resilient
Russia maintains significant influence in Central Asia despite Western narratives of declining regional power since the Ukraine war began. Trade between Russia and Central Asian nations reached $44 billion in 2023, representing one-third of the region's total trade turnover. Over 50% of transactions now occur in local currencies rather than dollars, except in Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan gained BRICS partner status in 2024, while new military agreements enhance Russian security cooperation — including a joint air defence system with Kyrgyzstan and S-300 deliveries to Tajikistan.
The region pursues pragmatic multi-vector diplomacy rather than choosing sides. While Central Asian leaders haven't supported Russia's Ukraine invasion or recognized annexed territories, they also haven't enforced Western sanctions. New trade routes through Central Asia help Russia bypass restrictions — German auto parts exports to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan surged 5400% and 720% respectively, while Kazakhstan's electronics exports to Russia increased 18-fold in 2022. Western policies often misread regional dynamics by underestimating Russia-China interests and overemphasizing ideological agendas that don't align with Central Asian priorities focused on economic development and stability.
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Armenia Pivots West While Maintaining Russian Economic Ties
Armenia signed a strategic partnership with the United States on January 14 and authorized EU membership qualification efforts through its Integration Act on January 9. Prime Minister Pashinyan's government enacted these measures while maintaining membership in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), though suspending participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The shifts follow what Yerevan perceives as Russia's failure to honour security guarantees during Azerbaijan's reconquest of Karabakh in late 2023.
The dual-track approach faces significant obstacles. Russian Deputy PM Overshuk declared EU and EEU memberships “incompatible,” warning of higher energy and consumer costs if Armenia exits the EEU. EU accession requires both a national referendum and peace with Azerbaijan — a process complicated by Baku's demands for extraterritorial access to Nakhchivan. Armenia's strategic reorientation must contend with uncertain US engagement in the Caucasus, while managing its significant economic dependence on Russia. The immediate challenges remain securing a durable peace with Azerbaijan — particularly regarding Nakhchivan access — and reconciling potential EU integration with existing EEU commitments.
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Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Faces Governance Deadlock
The first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire faces strong prospects for implementation by late January. The deal follows Israel's successful operations against adversaries in 2024, including the elimination of key Hamas and Hezbollah leadership and Assad's fall in Syria. Hamas has reduced its demands after significant military losses, while Israel seeks to position itself for potential escalation against the Houthis and Iran.
The ceasefire's later phases face significant obstacles centred on Gaza's governance and security structure. Arab states condition reconstruction support on Palestinian Authority involvement, which conflicts with Israel's security demands. Without viable Palestinian partners, Israel likely maintains military presence in strategic zones including the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border, prompting continued Hamas insurgency. This creates a deadlock where reconstruction efforts remain stalled while intermittent violence continues, potentially unravelling the broader ceasefire framework.