In Geopolitics Today: Friday, January 17th
Russia and Iran Sign 20-Year Strategic Partnership Treaty, EU-Mexico Trade Deal Opens 450M Consumer Market, and other stories.
Russia and Iran Sign 20-Year Strategic Partnership Treaty
Russia and Iran have signed a 20-year comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, covering trade, military cooperation, science, education, and culture. The agreement includes provisions for coordinating responses to Western sanctions, facilitating payments in national currencies, and intelligence sharing. Specific projects under discussion include Russian natural gas shipments to Iran via Azerbaijan and new transport corridors to Iranian ports in the Gulf.
Russia seeks to strengthen its Asian partnerships while Iran faces economic pressures and regional military setbacks, including the recent fall of its ally Assad in Syria and Israeli offensives against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The treaty does not include mutual defence obligations but prohibits either party from providing military aid to aggressors against the other. For both nations, the partnership offers potential economic benefits through sanctions mitigation and new trade routes, while diplomatically signalling their ability to form alternative international alignments.
Read more about this story here.
Colombia Halts ELN Peace Talks
Colombian President Gustavo Petro suspended peace talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN) on January 17, 2025, following violent clashes in the Catatumbo region along the Venezuelan border. The violence represents the most significant outbreak of fighting in Catatumbo in recent years, disrupting a six-month truce that was set to expire in February.
The breakdown threatens Colombia's broader peace initiatives. Since the 2016 peace agreement with FARC, the government has struggled to control splinter groups and maintain stability in strategic border regions. The Catatumbo area remains particularly volatile due to competition for cocaine trafficking routes. While Petro's “total peace” strategy had reduced overall violence since his 2022 inauguration, this incident highlights persistent challenges in managing multiple armed groups with competing interests. The UN maintains pressure for renewed dialogue, calling for a robust ceasefire monitoring mechanism to enhance security in conflict-affected communities.
Read more about this story here.
Poland Builds New Regional Security Framework as V4 Dissolves
Poland assumed the EU Council presidency on January 1, 2025, as the Visegrád Four Group (V4). The Visegrád Four Group (V4) has effectively fractured over divergent positions on Russia, with Hungary and Slovakia adopting pro-Moscow stances while Poland and Czechia maintain strong support for Ukraine. Recent actions reflect an irreversible fracture in the 30-year-old regional cooperation framework.
Warsaw has built new security partnerships through multiple channels — joining the Nordic-Baltic Eight as an observer, reviving the Weimar Triangle with France and Germany, and maintaining the Three Seas Initiative and Bucharest Nine formats. Poland backs these diplomatic moves with concrete military investment, raising defence spending to 4.7% of GDP in 2025. This combination of new regional frameworks and increased defence capabilities positions Poland as a key actor in reshaping Europe's eastern security architecture.
Read more about this story here.
Argentina Merges Diplomatic Missions in Uruguay
Argentina has announced a significant restructuring of its diplomatic presence in Uruguay. The move merges Argentina's bilateral embassy with its representation to key regional bodies — Mercosur (Southern Common Market) and ALADI (Latin American Integration Association). This restructuring comes as Argentina repositions its regional trade alignments.
The reorganisation affects Argentina's engagement with two major South American economic frameworks: Mercosur, which handles $340 billion in regional trade, and ALADI, which coordinates regional economic integration among 13 member states. The timing is particularly significant as Mercosur navigates trade negotiations with the EU and faces internal debates over bilateral trade deals. For Uruguay, which serves as headquarters for both organisations, this diplomatic restructuring arrives during a period of regional economic realignment, as South American nations seek to balance traditional trading partnerships with emerging economic opportunities.
Read more about this story here.
Iraq Struggles with 95% Oil-Based Budget
Iraq faces multiple overlapping challenges in 2025, with practical impacts on its stability and sovereignty. The country completed its first national census in 40 years, which will impact power distribution in its sectarian system. Economic indicators show continued dependence on oil, which comprises 95% of federal budget revenue, with 35% of exports going to China. The planned September 2025 end of the U.S.-led coalition mission will reshape security arrangements, while remnants of ISIS and other militias remain active. Water resources have declined 30% since the 1980s, threatening agricultural stability and potentially driving rural-urban migration.
Baghdad's immediate priorities reflect these pressures. Prime Minister Sudani has pursued economic agreements and partnerships beyond security cooperation, particularly in energy and infrastructure. The reconstruction effort competes with development projects like the West Asia-Europe transport corridor. Key economic reforms include limiting public sector growth and managing the end of the dollar auction platform for foreign currency transactions. Environmental challenges loom large, with water flows in the Tigris and Euphrates projected to shrink by up to 50% by 2030, impacting food security and potentially exacerbating the unemployment rate.
Read more about this story here.
EU-Mexico Trade Deal Opens 450M Consumer Market
The EU and Mexico finalised an updated trade agreement on January 12, 2025, modernising their previous economic framework. The deal arrives at a crucial moment for Mexico's trade diversification efforts, as 83% of its current trade remains concentrated with the United States. This agreement follows the EU's recent trade pact with Mercosur in December 2024, expanding the EU's presence in Latin American markets. Key elements include new provisions for economic security, climate action, and sustainable development, though specific details of these measures await official publication.
The agreement has immediate practical implications for both parties. For Mexico, it opens additional channels for industrial exports and agricultural products to the European market of 450 million consumers. For the EU, it strengthens access to Mexico's automotive, pharmaceutical, and technology sectors while securing raw materials supply chains. The deal also includes updated provisions for digital trade and intellectual property protection, reflecting technological advances since the original agreement. Both parties gain increased leverage in negotiating other international trade agreements and demonstrate their commitment to multilateral trade frameworks.