In Geopolitics Today: Monday, February 3rd
Ukraine's Grid Now 70% Dependent on Three Nuclear Plants, SAF Breaks RSF Control of Khartoum, and other stories.
Ukraine's Grid Now 70% Dependent on Three Nuclear Plants
Russia's systematic targeting of Ukraine's power grid reveals a calculated strategy to exploit critical dependencies. Ukraine now relies on just three nuclear complexes for 70% of its electricity generation, operating with a 5-6 gigawatt supply deficit after repeated attacks destroyed thermal and hydropower capacity. This concentration creates strategic leverage — by targeting the grid's 103 substations, Russia can potentially force nuclear plant shutdowns without direct attacks.
Ukraine's energy integration with Europe adds another layer of strategic vulnerability. While European grid connection provides vital power imports, Ukraine's long-term economic strategy depends on becoming a major electricity exporter to the EU. Russia's substation attacks threaten both immediate Ukrainian stability and future economic leverage in Europe. The International Atomic Energy Agency's oversight role, initially requested by Ukraine, has become an additional pressure point that Russia can exploit to force plant closures through grid destabilization rather than direct military action.
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US Reorganizes Foreign Aid Architecture
A major realignment of US soft power projection is underway with the proposed restructuring of USAID, which provided 42% of UN-tracked global humanitarian funding and channelled $68 billion in foreign assistance in 2023. The potential merger with the State Department signals a shift toward more direct diplomatic control over development aid, traditionally used as a counterweight to the influence of rival powers.
The timing hands China an opening to expand its economic statecraft, particularly in regions where US aid has historically secured strategic partnerships. While US aid focused on humanitarian issues in institutional development, China's Belt and Road Initiative deploys infrastructure investments with fewer conditions. Other emerging powers — India through its development partnerships, Gulf states via sovereign wealth funds, and Turkey through military-commercial engagement — are also moving to fill gaps in regions where US influence is receding. This realignment accelerates the shift from traditional aid relationships toward a more transactional model of development partnerships.
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SAF Breaks RSF Control of Khartoum
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) is achieving decisive territorial gains in Khartoum, capturing Al-Aylafun and breaking RSF's months-long control of the capital. After breaching the RSF siege of its Armored Corps base on January 24, SAF has expanded operations east of Khartoum and into Al Jazirah state, where an airstrike eliminated key RSF commander Abdallah Hussein. The RSF's position has weakened since December, marked by retreats from Omdurman and deteriorating control of strategic positions.
Control of Khartoum represents a potential turning point in Sudan's internal power struggle. The RSF, which gained regular force status in 2015 and played crucial roles in the 2019 and 2021 coups, has resisted integration into Sudan's regular military structure. This stand-off reflects broader tensions in Sudan's military-political framework, where various armed groups maintain autonomous power bases. The outcome in Khartoum could reshape the balance of power between Sudan's competing military institutions and influence regional stability in the Horn of Africa.
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Mexico and Canada Acquiesce to US Demands
Mexico has averted immediate 25% US tariffs by committing 10,000 additional troops to border security and fentanyl interdiction. The 30-day delay followed direct negotiations between Presidents Sheinbaum and Trump, protecting $450 billion in Mexican exports. The agreement preserves trade flows while expanding Mexico's largest-ever military deployment against drug trafficking.
The temporary reprieve shifts focus to US-Canada negotiations over similar tariff threats, with Canadian oil imports facing a proposed 10% duty. China also faces additional 10% tariffs on its US exports, marking an aggressive return to trade pressure tactics affecting $1.475 trillion in North American commerce. The outcomes will reshape continental supply chains, particularly in automotive and construction sectors, where cross-border manufacturing integration runs deepest.
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India Rising in Asian Military Power
India's power trajectory shows measurable gains across key indicators in 2024. The Lowy Institute's Asia Power Index ranks India as Asia's third most powerful nation, surpassing Russia and Japan, while the Global Firepower Index 2025 places India as the world's fourth-strongest military. India increased defence spending by 4.2% in 2023, maintaining its position as the fourth-largest global military spender. These shifts occur alongside India's demographic advantage as the world's most populous nation, with the highest birth rate globally at 2,651 births per hour.
The rise reflects structural advantages in future resources and demographics, with India projected to have the world's largest working-age population by 2030. However, significant constraints remain — India's power projection capabilities are limited east of the Malacca Strait, and domestic challenges persist, including income disparities and interprovincial development gaps. Regional dynamics are shifting as Japan faces economic stagnation and China confronts slowing growth and demographic challenges. This creates space for India to expand its regional influence, particularly in maintaining maritime security, though realizing this potential requires addressing internal development challenges.
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OPEC+ Maintains Production Cuts
OPEC+ maintained its gradual output increase plan starting April and dropped the US Energy Information Administration from its production monitoring sources. The oil producers' group will replace EIA and Rystad Energy with Kpler, OilX, and ESAI for monitoring compliance with production quotas, further distancing itself from Western-aligned institutions after removing the International Energy Agency in 2022.
The group continues its 5.85 million barrel per day production cut (5.7% of global supply) through Q1, 2025, resisting US pressure to boost output and lower prices that Washington claims benefit Russia's war effort. Oil prices have risen following new US tariffs on major trading partners, though remaining below January peaks due to Russian sanctions impact. OPEC+'s shift to independent data providers for quota monitoring reinforces its autonomous decision-making amid growing geopolitical tensions.