In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, February 4th
Pakistan Builds Long-Range Missiles with Chinese Technology, US Demands Rare Earth Access for Ukraine Military Aid, and other stories.
Pakistan Builds Long-Range Missiles with Chinese Technology
Pakistan is building larger rocket motors and new missile test facilities, expanding beyond its current ballistic missile capabilities. A new horizontal rocket test stand at Attock, built between 2021 and 2023, can handle significantly larger motors than Pakistan's existing facilities near Karachi. Chinese companies are supplying advanced composite materials and testing equipment despite US sanctions on both Pakistani organizations and Chinese suppliers. These materials enable lighter, longer-range missiles.
India's development of MIRVs and maritime strike capabilities drives Pakistan's missile expansion. Pakistan's current arsenal cannot reach India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The new Shaheen-III missile, with 2,750 km range, would close this gap. China's continued supply of missile technology to Pakistan maintains the flow of expertise and materials despite international sanctions. This creates an accelerating regional missile race: India builds capabilities against China, Pakistan responds to India, while China supports Pakistan's program. The shift to composite materials and larger test facilities indicates Pakistan aims to match India's expanding strike range and penetration abilities across South Asia.
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US Targets Iranian Oil Trade with China
The United States has announced expanded sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports and threatening secondary sanctions on major buyers like China. The policy aims to choke off Iran's record-high 2024 oil revenues by forcing customers to choose between access to US markets or Iranian oil. Iran has adapted to previous sanctions by developing a “ghost fleet” of tankers and deepening energy ties with China, its main customer.
The sanctions intensify economic competition between major powers. China continues large-scale Iranian oil purchases despite US pressure, using the trade to strengthen ties with Iran while reducing US leverage. Iran's successful sanctions evasion through China demonstrates the limits of US economic pressure when alternative buyers exist. The oil flows through payment channels outside U.S.-controlled systems, especially Chinese banks and trading firms. These networks link Iran's energy exports to China's industrial base while reducing both countries' vulnerability to US financial measures.
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China Restricts Critical Minerals in US Trade Fight
China has announced multiple retaliatory measures against U.S. trade actions: 15% tariffs on coal and LNG, 10% tariffs on oil, machinery and vehicles, export controls on critical minerals, and an antitrust investigation into Google. The measures target $20 billion of US imports, compared to US tariffs affecting $450 billion of Chinese goods. Beijing also filed a WTO complaint and blacklisted two U.S. companies — PVH Corp and Illumina Inc.
China's new export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium directly target U.S. technology production capabilities. These minerals are essential for semiconductors, batteries and industrial manufacturing. The limited scope of China's response — targeting specific sectors rather than broad tariffs — suggests Beijing seeks negotiation leverage while maintaining its dominant position in critical mineral processing. China continues to supply 85% of global rare earth refining and 75% of EV battery production, giving it significant control over key industrial supply chains.
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US Demands Rare Earth Access for Ukraine Military Aid
The United States has proposed linking continued military aid to Ukraine with access to the country's rare earth elements and strategic minerals. During a February 4 White House statement, US officials emphasized requiring “security of rare earth” in exchange for military support. Ukrainian leadership signalled acceptance, with Zelenskyy's office confirming alignment with these plans. Most of Ukraine's key rare earth deposits currently lie in Russian-occupied territories.
The US move intensifies the competition for strategic minerals. China controls 85-90% of global rare earth processing and 75% of EV battery production. Russia holds Ukrainian deposits through territorial occupation. Ukraine's mineral wealth has become central to military aid negotiations as states compete for resources essential to defence and technology sectors. This is a shift away from unconditional military support toward resource-backed security arrangements between states, with Ukraine's minerals emerging as a strategic factor in maintaining its military alliances.
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Combat Drone Expertise Spreads Beyond Ukraine War
The war in Ukraine has created a new class of military expertise: thousands of trained drone operators with combat experience in assassination, mechanized warfare, counter-air missions, and infrastructure attacks. Russian and Ukrainian forces have integrated small drones into combat at unprecedented scale, developing tactics for everything from individual soldier targeting to sinking ships. These operators have driven rapid innovation in drone technology, including automatic target recognition and fibre optic controls that bypass traditional countermeasures.
This combat-tested drone expertise will spread globally as veterans demobilize after the war. North Korea announced mass production of suicide drones after sending materials to Russia, while a Chinese company plans to manufacture one million drones for its military. Mexican cartels have already created specialized drone positions and recruited military drone experts. The proliferation extends beyond criminal groups — Ukrainian special forces have used weaponized drones in Mali, Sudan, and Syria, while Russian operators likely advise programs in China and North Korea. States with limited conventional forces gain new asymmetric options, while established powers face complex defensive challenges as drone expertise spreads through both state and non-state channels.
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M23 Rebels Declare Ceasefire After Capturing Goma
The M23 rebel coalition has unilaterally declared a ceasefire in eastern DRC, following their capture of Goma, a strategic city of 2 million people and major mineral hub. The Rwandan-backed force seized the city last week, causing 900 confirmed deaths and displacing hundreds of thousands. M23 announced they won't advance on Bukavu, pausing their previously stated campaign toward the capital. The ceasefire comes before a regional summit where DRC President Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Kagame are set to meet — their first direct engagement in recent peace talks.
Rwanda's control of Goma through M23 gives it power over eastern DRC's rare earth deposits and transportation networks. The ceasefire puts maximum pressure on Tshisekedi: his military failed to defend Goma, and he must now negotiate while Rwanda holds key territory. M23's limited advance provide diplomatic cover for Rwanda's expansion of regional power. The G7's late calls for talks lack leverage — Rwanda has already secured its primary objective of controlling strategic mineral-rich territory while maintaining deniability through M23. DRC faces a choice between accepting Rwanda's control of Goma or risking further territorial losses.