In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, February 5th
France Secures 30-Year Uranium Supply from Mongolia, US Proposes Gaza Administration and Palestinian Resettlement, and other stories.
France Secures 30-Year Uranium Supply from Mongolia
France and Mongolia have signed a $1.6 billion investment agreement to develop the Zuuvch-Ovoo uranium mine, with France's Orano Group partnering with state-owned MonAtom Group. The project aims to extract 2,500 tonnes of uranium annually from deposits totalling 90,000 tonnes in Mongolia's Dornogovi province. The 30-year project includes $500 million in initial investment and will create 1,600 jobs.
The agreement advances multiple strategic interests. For France, it secures uranium supply for its nuclear energy sector. For Mongolia, it represents successful economic diversification beyond Chinese and Russian markets, supporting its “third neighbour” policy while potentially placing it among the world's top five uranium producers. The deal strengthens bilateral ties between Paris and Ulaanbaatar, though implementation faces domestic concerns over environmental and health impacts. The project's success could establish a template for future strategic investments in Mongolia's resource sector, particularly from Western powers.
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Iran and Azerbaijan Progress on New Trade Corridor
Azerbaijan is advancing construction of the Aras Corridor through Iran, bypassing Armenia's Syunik region. This alternative to the stalled Zangezur Corridor includes major rail and highway infrastructure connecting Azerbaijan's mainland to Nakhchivan. Iran is upgrading its transport networks to accommodate increased traffic, a shift from Tehran's previous opposition to north-south corridors.
Iran gains strategic leverage as a key transit state, while Armenia risks isolation from major trade routes. Russia maintains influence through careful balancing between Baku and Yerevan, while ensuring its own transport corridors remain relevant. The EU's growing interest in southern transport routes reflects broader shifts in Eurasian trade patterns, as Ukraine war disruptions continue to impact northern corridors. Turkey supports both Zangezur and Aras options, advancing its goal of direct land connection to Azerbaijan and Central Asia.
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BRICS Adds Indonesia, Nigeria, Azerbaijan
Brazil has secured three new BRICS+ members in early 2025: Indonesia, Nigeria, and Azerbaijan, with strong backing from Russia and China. Azerbaijan's admission, following an August 2024 Putin-Aliyev joint statement, reflects growing alignment between Moscow and Baku on fostering multipolar order. Russia has publicly supported BRICS expansion, particularly to those pursuing sovereign foreign policies and opposing unilateral sanctions.
The expansion strengthens BRICS' position in key regions — Indonesia in Asia, Nigeria in Africa, and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus. For Azerbaijan, membership offers enhanced economic and trade partnerships with major powers like China, India, and Russia, though domestic challenges around religious diversity and post-Soviet transition remain. BRICS+ now represents approximately 60% of global population and significant natural resources. The bloc aims to leverage institutions like the BRICS New Development Bank as alternatives to Western-led financial organizations, though implementation of development goals across member states varies significantly.
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US Proposes Gaza Administration and Palestinian Resettlement
The United States has proposed direct administration of the Gaza Strip, marking a fundamental shift in Washington's Middle East policy. The plan envisions US control of the territory, economic development projects, and permanent resettlement of Gaza's 2.2 million Palestinians to neighbouring states. This represents an abandonment of the two-state framework that has guided US policy since the Oslo Accords.
Saudi Arabia immediately rejected any Palestinian displacement and restated that normalization with Israel requires Palestinian statehood. Jordan and Egypt maintain their opposition to Palestinian resettlement. The proposal adds complexity to ongoing ceasefire negotiations and raises questions about regional security arrangements, particularly regarding potential US military presence between Egypt and Israel. Hamas leadership in Gaza has stated they will not accept forced displacement.
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Saudi Arabia Delays BRICS Entry
Saudi Arabia has delayed accepting its BRICS membership invitation, as confirmed by Economy Minister Faisal Al-Ibrahim. The hesitation stems from three key factors: Western perceptions of BRICS as an anti-Western bloc, Iran's presence in BRICS amid regional tensions, and pressure from US-Israeli partners in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has pursued multi-alignment.
The delay aligns with Saudi Arabia's strategic priorities. IMEC represents a crucial component of MBS's Vision 2030 economic transformation plan, requiring sustained US involvement and Israeli cooperation. Full BRICS membership could jeopardize these relationships, particularly with the new administration's stance on BRICS as a de-dollarization threat. Saudi Arabia currently benefits from informal BRICS engagement without risking its Western partnerships or IMEC progress. This approach preserves Saudi flexibility in an increasingly complex, multipolar environment.
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US Freezes Haiti Security Mission Funding
The US has frozen $13.3 million for Haiti's multinational security mission, affecting stability in the Caribbean. The Kenya-led force, backed by El Salvador, Jamaica, and Guatemala, operates at one-third strength with severe funding shortages. This marks the first African-led security operation in the Western hemisphere, shifting traditional power dynamics in regional intervention.
Gang control of Port-au-Prince threatens Caribbean maritime security and drives regional migration. The mission's funding crisis tests new security partnerships between African, Central American, and Caribbean forces in a historically US-controlled region. The outcome will shape future multilateral security arrangements in the Caribbean, as the US reconsiders its role in regional stabilization efforts.