In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, February 6th
M23 Rebels Seize Second Congo Mining Hub, Kachin Rebels Capture Myanmar Rare Earth Mines, and other stories.
M23 Rebels Seize Second Congo Mining Hub
Rwandan-backed M23 rebels have captured Nyabibwe, a strategic mining town on Lake Kivu producing gold and coltan, violating their own unilaterally-declared ceasefire. The seizure positions rebel forces 70 kilometres from South Kivu's capital Bukavu, following their capture of North Kivu's capital Goma.
The rebel advance further strengthens Rwanda's control over eastern Congo's mineral wealth, while expanding M23's territory beyond North Kivu into South Kivu province. The capture of two provincial capitals and key mining areas shifts regional power dynamics as Rwanda gains access to strategic resources through proxy forces. This expansion occurs as regional peacekeeping missions weaken, with Malawi withdrawing troops while Rwanda opposes any Southern African intervention forces.
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Guatemala Agrees to Expanded US Deportation Network
Guatemala has agreed to expand US deportation flights, increasing capacity by 40 percent beyond current 14 daily flights while extending deportations to non-citizens. The agreement follows Secretary of State Rubio's regional tour securing new migration controls with Central American states. Guatemala accepted 66,000 deportees in fiscal year 2024, exceeding any year during Trump's first term.
The deportation agreement expands US control over regional migration flows while shifting border enforcement costs to Central American states. Guatemala joins El Salvador in accepting expanded US deportation operations, as Caribbean nations reject similar proposals. The US now routes detained migrants through a network of regional processing centres including Guantánamo Bay and a number of cooperative states, altering hemispheric migration patterns.
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Gulf States Buy Up Caucasus Infrastructure
Gulf Cooperation Council states are expanding investments in South Caucasus infrastructure through strategic acquisitions. The UAE has acquired Georgia's Poti Black Sea port, a 60% stake in Tbilisi's dry port, and Azerbaijan's Absheron gas field, while committing $6 billion to Georgian real estate development. Saudi and Emirati firms are building energy infrastructure, including Georgia's largest solar plant and Azerbaijan's wind power facilities.
The Gulf states' infrastructure investments in Georgia and Azerbaijan create a new Eurasian trade corridor bypassing Russia from China to Europe. Their growing control of strategic ports, energy networks, and transport hubs reduces Russian regional influence while linking Gulf capital to Caspian resources. The UAE alone now controls 63% of Georgia's Arab trade, reshaping economic flows from the Middle East through the Caucasus to European markets.
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Mapuche Rebels Burn Patagonian Territory
The Ancestral Mapuche Resistance (RAM) launched coordinated arson attacks in Argentina's Patagonia region, destroying 3,000 hectares and over 100 houses in El Bolsón and Epuyén. RAM leader Facundo Jones-Huala claimed responsibility for attacks against landowners and infrastructure while calling for armed struggle. Argentine authorities found evidence of accelerants and multiple ignition points, confirming organized sabotage.
Argentina's security response shifts control dynamics in Patagonia as the government designates RAM a terrorist organization. The classification grants security forces expanded powers in resource-rich territories claimed by Mapuche groups, while strengthening state control over strategic lands along the Chile-Argentina border. This militarization of Patagonia's resource frontier affects mining, energy, and agricultural operations across the region while intensifying tensions over indigenous territorial claims.
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China Replaces India in Bangladesh
China is strengthening ties with Bangladesh's interim government through loan concessions and infrastructure deals, while India's influence wanes over its support of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The new alignment includes Chinese agreements to extend loan repayment periods, build a 1,000-bed hospital in Dhaka, and share critical river data. China supplies 82% of Bangladesh's military equipment and remains its largest trading partner.
The shift marks a strategic realignment in South Asia as China expands influence in India's traditional sphere. Bangladesh's shift from Indian to Chinese medical services, combined with China's engagement of all major Bangladeshi political factions, undermines India's regional position. The change impacts critical infrastructure, defence procurement, and maritime access while strengthening China's Belt and Road presence along the Bay of Bengal. Chinese loans and infrastructure projects now shape Bangladesh's development path independent of Indian influence.
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Kachin Rebels Capture Myanmar Rare Earth Mines
The Kachin Independence Army has captured Myanmar's rare earth mining hubs in Panwa and Chipwe from government forces, disrupting a major supply chain to China. These mines previously operated under the New Democratic Army-Kachin militia, which maintained Chinese access to rare earth oxides critical for manufacturing and defence industries.
The seizure blocks China's direct control over a vital rare earth source, forcing negotiations with KIA leadership for mine access and export rights. This threatens China's dominance of global rare earth processing while giving the US access to a strategic resource chain that supplies electronics, weapons systems, and automotive manufacturing. The KIA's control creates a new pressure point in US-China competition, as these mines connect to China's southern rare earth processing facilities. The captured mining hubs form part of a broader contest over critical mineral supply chains, where both powers aim to secure resources for semiconductor manufacturing, military systems, and next-generation batteries.