In Geopolitics Today: Friday, February 7th
Colombia Opens China Trade Route, US Navy Loses Pacific Shipbuilding Race to China, and other stories.
Colombia Opens China Trade Route
Colombia has opened direct maritime trade with China through a new Shanghai-Buenaventura shipping route via Peru's Chancay port, while implementing reciprocal 25% tariffs on US imports. The moves follow Washington's visa restrictions on Colombian officials and enhanced airport screening measures after Bogota initially refused US military flights carrying deported migrants. Colombia arranged civilian flights to accept the deportees but maintained trade barriers.
The strategic shift extends beyond bilateral tensions. Colombia plans to join China's Belt and Road Initiative and has applied for BRICS membership, positioning itself within emerging economic frameworks that challenge US regional dominance. Chinese firms Huawei, Shein, and BYD have expanded Colombian operations while Beijing's ambassador has proposed a free trade agreement, marking the first major realignment of Colombia's trade relationships since the Cold War.
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Kyrgyzstan Restricts Russian Military Trade Network
Kyrgyzstan has imposed strict verification controls on Russian trade flows, blocking vehicle shipments through Georgian transit routes and shutting down Keremet Bank's defence sector financing operations. The measures include mandatory 60-day import verification requirements and increased scrutiny of Russian firms, maintained despite Russian Prime Minister Mishustin's pressure on Bishkek.
Central Asian trade routes now operate under tighter controls than at any point since 1991. Banking restrictions closed Keremet Bank's links to Russia's defence sector, while customs verification requirements block undocumented shipments through regional transit points. The US Treasury's sanctions on Kyrgyz financial institutions have pushed other regional banks to restrict Russian transactions, impacting trade flows through neighbouring states.
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China Tests Anti-Drone Tank Defence System
China demonstrated its GL-6 active protection system successfully intercepting drone-launched rocket-propelled grenades in high-angle attacks against armoured vehicles. The system employs radar-guided explosive projectiles fired from turreted launchers, marking China's entry into a specialized defence sector previously dominated by Israeli firms.
This advance strengthens China's position in the global armoured vehicle market as drone threats reshape ground warfare. The GL-6 has already been integrated into China's Type 99 tanks and new airborne fighting vehicles, while being marketed internationally on the VT-4A1 export tank. The system's proven drone-defence capability addresses a critical vulnerability exposed in Ukraine, where commercial drones regularly conduct armour-killing attacks through less sophisticated protection systems.
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Ukraine Gas Halt Pushes Transnistria to EU
The EU has secured its first major foothold in Transnistria as Russia's dominance over the breakaway Moldovan territory weakens. The January 2025 energy crisis pushed Transnistrian leadership to accept EU development aid, establish direct diplomatic channels with Brussels, and publicly acknowledge European Commission President von der Leyen. This marks the first time since Transnistria's 1990s secession that its government has openly engaged with Western institutions.
Transnistria's pivot reflects a broader power realignment in Moldova's periphery. The territory's participation in the EU-Moldova trade agreement, implementation of EU-supervised tax reforms, and neutral stance on Ukraine signal a concrete shift from exclusive Russian patronage. German diplomats capitalized on this opening with Ambassador Uebber conducting formal meetings in Tiraspol, while Romania's passport policies have already integrated many Transnistrians into EU citizenship frameworks.
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US Navy Loses Pacific Shipbuilding Race to China
The US Navy's combat readiness faces systemic collapse as maintenance backlogs stretch to 2040 and fleet size stagnates at 300 ships, matching historic lows. Shipyard labour shortages and $21 billion in deferred maintenance have crippled the navy's ability to sustain extended operations, while China's naval production capacity now exceeds total US shipbuilding output across all military and commercial yards combined.
Beijing's maritime advantage stems from America's 30-year prioritization of global presence over industrial capacity. The US deploys 35% of its fleet continuously while operating ageing vessels 25% beyond designed service limits. China meanwhile launches more naval tonnage annually than America, Japan, and South Korea combined, fundamentally shifting the military balance in the Pacific. This maritime power transfer directly threatens Taiwan's security and Western control of critical Indo-Pacific trade routes.
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Water Scarcity Disrupts Global Power Balance
Water stress has emerged as a primary driver of global power competition as nations struggle to secure resources for technology manufacturing, agriculture, and urban populations. Critical flashpoints include China's control of Himalayan water sources, reduced Colorado River flows threatening US semiconductor production, and Nile basin tensions where dam construction risks military confrontation. Infrastructure vulnerability compounds these pressures as water systems face increasing cyberattacks and sabotage.
The collapse of multilateral water management has triggered a new resource competition model. Major powers now deploy infrastructure investment, technological assistance, and security agreements to control water resources beyond their borders. India faces groundwater depletion threatening its agricultural workforce while Singapore pioneers water recycling technology as a source of regional influence. In the Sahel, water scarcity accelerates state collapse and militant expansion, while European rivers' declining water levels disrupt energy production and commodity transport. These disruptions reshape alliance structures as nations prioritize water access over traditional diplomatic patterns.