In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, June 4th
Egypt's Gas Dependence on Israel Constrains Gaza Policy, Turkey Delivers Attack Helicopters to Somalia, and other stories.
Egypt's Gas Dependence on Israel Constrains Gaza Policy
Egypt imports 72 percent of its natural gas from Israel after domestic Zohr field production collapsed and Cairo accumulated billions in arrears to international energy companies. Israeli maintenance at Leviathan field cuts Egyptian industrial gas supplies by 50 percent, while Israel halted Tamar production citing "security concerns" after October 2023 Hamas attacks. Egypt shifted from gas exporter in 2021-2022 to net importer by 2023, creating $10 billion annual dependence on Israeli supplies. Financial constraints prevent exploration investments, while foreign currency shortages strangle domestic production capacity.
Energy vulnerability blocks Egypt's Gaza policy options as Israel pressures Cairo to accept 2.3 million Palestinian refugees in Sinai. Egypt cannot risk confrontation threatening gas supplies or US aid linked to the 1979 peace treaty, despite viewing forced displacement as an existential threat to Palestinian statehood. Housing additional refugees beyond 1.2 million Sudanese arrivals since April 2023 would spike energy demand further. Egypt signed Turkish LNG deals and pursues Qatar contracts while drilling 75 wells annually, but offshore discoveries need 3-5 years development. Renewable targets of 42 percent by 2035 provide no immediate relief from Israeli leverage over Egyptian energy security and Gaza diplomacy.
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Turkey Delivers Attack Helicopters to Somalia
Turkey has delivered three T129 Atak attack helicopters and two utility helicopters to Somalia. Six Turkish A400M and Qatari C-17A transport aircraft arrived in Mogadishu over seven days, carrying the helicopters after Somali pilots completed year-long training programs. Turkey is doubling its military presence to over 500 troops operating from Turksom base, adding two Akinci drones with 24-hour capabilities to the existing TB2 Bayraktar fleet. The delivery implements February 2024 defence agreements requiring Turkey to establish Somalia's naval force and expand counterterrorism operations.
Turkey is filling the security vacuum as the United States scales back Somalia assistance. Al-Shabab is capturing villages south of Mogadishu during intensified militant campaigns targeting the government ahead of 2026 direct elections. Turkey's expanding military commitment secures commercial interests including energy exploration agreements signed last year, with Turkish ships conducting offshore drilling operations. Erdoğan is promising "good news" on energy discoveries in recent remarks, suggesting hydrocarbon finds may justify Turkey's military investment in Somalia's stability and development.
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Russian Drought Reduces Caspian Water Levels
Southern Russia's drought cut Volga River flow into the Caspian Sea by 15 percent, dropping water levels to 1895 lows. The Volga historically supplied 80 percent of Caspian inflow, but reduced flow now silts ports, destroys fisheries, and forces shallow ship drafts. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan demand Moscow address the crisis damaging their coastlines. Russian officials blame Kazakhstan's water policies for reduced river contributions,; while offering expanded Volga-Don waterway access and calling for multilateral cooperation instead of accepting drought responsibility.
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are building naval fleets with shallow-draft vessels, outperforming Russia's Caspian Flotilla in declining waters. Joint Kazakh-Azerbaijani naval exercises near Russian shores pressure Moscow, while Russian forces focus on Ukraine. The water dispute undermines Russian north-south trade routes through the Caspian and complicates efforts of blocking Turkish regional expansion. Moscow cannot resolve the environmental crisis driving tensions, giving Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan leverage for concessions. Russia's domestic climate problem has become a geopolitical competition over Caspian control and regional trade access. Naval buildup signals escalating disputes beyond diplomatic protests over water management.
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Italy Courts Central Asian Energy Partners Amid Legal Disputes
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni toured Central Asia May 28-30, meeting all five regional leaders in Astana and conducting bilateral talks in Uzbekistan. Italy launched its C5+1 dialogue format targeting trade and security cooperation across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Kazakhstan demands $160 billion from Italian energy company Eni for alleged cost overruns and revenue miscalculations at the Kashagan offshore project. A separate March 2025 complaint alleges embezzlement at Kashagan and Karachaganak fields, where Eni holds stakes. Italy ranks as Kazakhstan's third-largest trade partner behind China and Russia, positioning itself to anchor EU influence through energy cooperation. The legal disputes involving Italian companies undermine Rome's strategy to deepen Central Asian partnerships. Non-oil trade between the countries totalled only $1.3 billion in 2024, exposing Italy's narrow economic footprint beyond hydrocarbon transit arrangements.
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Israel Strikes Syrian Weapons In Response to Golan Rocket Attack
Two rockets fired from southern Syria hit Israeli-controlled territory near the Golan Heights on June 3, triggering sirens in Haspin and Ramat Magshimim. Israeli artillery struck launch sites in Syria's Yarmouk area, followed by airstrikes targeting weapons depots in Damascus countryside, Quneitra, and Daraa provinces—Israel's first major bombardment in a month. Defense Minister Israel Katz held Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa "directly responsible" and promised retaliation. Syria's Foreign Ministry denied launching rockets and condemned Israeli strikes on Daraa that killed civilians, claiming unspecified parties seek regional destabilization.
Syria's transitional government cannot control armed groups operating along the 76-kilometre Golan ceasefire line. Israel controls 1,200 square kilometres of Syrian Golan Heights since 1967 and expanded its buffer zone after Assad's December ouster. Groups claiming "Martyr Muhammad Deif Brigades" designation—referencing the killed Hamas commander—allegedly conducted the rocket attack. Israel's systematic destruction of Syrian military infrastructure since Assad's fall eliminated Damascus's deterrent capabilities. Al-Sharaa's government relies on diplomatic channels, while lacking military options to prevent cross-border attacks or Israeli retaliation. Neither regional powers nor international actors have intervened in the limited exchange.
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Pipeline Vulnerabilities Threaten Energy Security
Seven major pipelines face escalating geopolitical risks threatening global energy flows. Kazakhstan's CPC pipeline carries 1.3 million barrels daily through Russian territory. Europe's Druzhba pipeline moves 280,000 barrels daily, as Hungary and Slovakia stay dependent on Russian flows. Iraq's Kirkuk-Ceyhan route remains shut since March 2023 arbitration ruling, blocking 400,000 barrels daily from Kurdish regions. South Sudan's 145,000-barrel daily pipeline through war-torn Sudan faces repeated attacks, while Niger's 90,000-barrel Chinese line to Benin encounters militant strikes.
Pipeline disruptions spike energy prices and reshape diplomatic alignments. CPC shutdowns previously drove Brent Crude up 5 percent to $121.60 per barrel within days. Druzhba's collapse forces Central European refineries toward Croatia's Adria pipeline, which lacks capacity for smooth transitions. Nord Stream's permanent closure has triggered European LNG terminal construction, though reactivation speculation is jolting gas prices. The proposed EastMed pipeline linking Israeli and Cypriot gas to Europe has gained US backing through IMEC corridor integration, offering alternatives to Russian supplies despite Turkish opposition over maritime jurisdiction. These infrastructure choke points determine global energy prices, alliance structures, and geopolitical leverage across volatile regions.