In Geopolitics Today: Monday, July 11th

China Seeks to Secure Long-Term Energy Deals, Russia Offers Citizenship for All Ukrainians, and other stories.

China Seeks to Secure Long-Term Energy Deals

China is increasingly turning to long-term contracts to ensure the country's growing energy needs will be met years into the future. Chinese demand for natural gas grew at the fastest rate on record in 2021, rising by 18% to 78.9 million tons, and thereby surpassing Japan as the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer.

Chinese energy companies signed 23 long-term contracts for a total of 27 million tons of LNG in 2021, with the deals coming as part of the Chinese government's push for better energy security. National security and decarbonization were central themes in China's latest five-year plan for the energy sector. The move to secure long-term contracts comes in response to a global energy crunch and gas shortages, with the government instructing state-owned energy firms to bolster their supply chains and secure extra gas.

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Russia Offers Citizenship for All Ukrainians

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed off on a decree that will see Russia offer a fast-track citizenship process to all Ukraine citizens. The decree states that all citizens of Ukraine be allowed to “apply for admission to the citizenship of the Russian Federation.” Russia is using the decree to solidify the gains made since February, and will apply it to Ukrainians beyond the eastern Donbas region or occupied southern locations.

Russia started offering a simplified citizenship process to residents of the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2019. Moscow expanded this process in May of this year to include Ukrainians living in the Russia-controlled Kherson region and Zaporizhzhia region. Russia is using the decree to signal its political ambitions on additional Ukrainian territory, and setting the stage for continued military action in Ukraine, including in regions of Ukraine that Russia does not occupy. The decree may also be intended to spur immigration from Ukraine to Russia as a means of bolstering Russia's aging workforce. 

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France’s Data Processing Platform Enters Final Development Phase

The French Armament General Directorate (Direction Générale de l’Armement) has decided to award phase 3 of the project “ARTEMIS.IA” (Architecture for Processing and Massive Exploitation of Multi-Source Information and Artificial Intelligence) to ATHEA, a joint venture between Atos and Thales.

Artemis’ goal is to provide France with a sovereign, secure data and AI processing platform that can analyse and transmit large amounts of data sent by military equipment and sensors. The application Artemis is expected to focus on utilizing multi-source information, with cybersecurity, military health surveillance, predictive maintenance, and maritime surveillance, all areas where the platform will see use. This new contract will be managed by France’s Digital Defense Agency (Agence du Numérique de Défense), which will provide for the deployment of an initial operational platform, as well as for the deployment of training and maintenance support over three years.

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Russia’s Influence in the Western Hemisphere

Russian vectors of influence in the Western Hemisphere remain a challenge to US interpretations of North and South America as Washington’s exclusive sphere of influence. In general, Russian influence in Latin America has been advanced or facilitated through diplomatic channels, developing mutually beneficial relations which form enduring partnerships.

In recent years, Russian efforts to seek closer ties with Argentina, Brazil and Mexico have remained cautious and Moscow apparently seeks to gradually develol mutually beneficial relations which offer stable platforms for trade and cooperation. This engagement with regional powers on a win-win basis is an example of how Russia promotes the emergence of a multipolar balance of power in the Western Hemisphere. By working with countries in Latin America on policies detrimental to US interests, Moscow could, in theory, weaken the primacy traditionally held by Washington as the sole regional epicentre of geopolitical gravity. However, this seems a very unlikely outcome.

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