In Geopolitics Today: Friday, July 15th

Kazakhstan is Slipping from Russia’s Sphere of Influence, European Commission Allows the Transit of Goods to Kaliningrad, and other stories.

Poland Gets Long-Desired NATO Headquarters

After more than a decade of attempts by Poland to secure a permanent NATO presence on its territory, the United States has agreed to move its US Army 5th Corps headquarters to Poland. This permanent military presence will include the construction of support and storage facilities, allowing the US to preposition military equipment that would enable US combat brigades to rapidly deploy their personnel and use the prepositioned equipment in a state of combat readiness.

NATO members in eastern Europe have spent years resolving administrative problems that, until recently, have made it impractical for the US to put a major NATO headquarters in Poland. In addition to bureaucratic issues associated with the transfer of military equipment across the borders of many sovereign states, NATO’s eastward expansion also posed a unique set of logistical problems because many of the new members could not be reached quickly by land, air or sea. This meant that Russia could potentially target NATO reinforcements arriving in Poland and other eastern NATO members, who would be vulnerable without appropriate counter-measures.

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Kazakhstan is Slipping from Russia’s Sphere of Influence

While Kazakhstan has historically been a state under Russian influence, there are signs that the new government is seeking to break with Moscow and pursue an independent foreign policy. Russia’s actions in Ukraine appear to have irked Kazakhstan’s decisionmakers and worked to dramatically deteriorate bilateral relations between Moscow and Nur-Sultan.

Kazakhstan was the first Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member to publicly rule out sending its troops to assist Russia’s invasion. Furthermore, Kazakh officials have publicly stated they will not recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as independent states. Compounding issues for Moscow is the fact that Kazakhstan has gradually sought to deepen relations with the European Union and China in an effort to reorient Kazakh foreign policy. While this campaign to set Kazakhstan on a separate path from Moscow may end in disaster, it is clear that the current foreign policy trend is aimed at reducing Moscow’s historical dominance over Nur Sultan.

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Iran Increases Trade with Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Trade between Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is on the rise, with trade ties expanding beyond just energy transfers. The SCO is a regional organization which works to enhance trade, promote cooperation and maintain stability in Asia. China, Russia, India, and several other former Soviet states in Central Asia, with Turkey also participating in an observer role.

The increase in trade comes at a time when Iran is cultivating closer political and economic ties with SCO members. The Iranian Foreign Minister recently visited India in a trip that saw the two countries upgrade ties, with India’s central bank agreeing to allow import and export payments to be made in rupees. Iran has also negotiated for Russian goods to transit its territory to Southeast Asia, with both Tehran and Moscow also aligned in promoting the International North-South Transport Corridor as an alternative to the Suez Canal. Moreover, Iran and Kazakhstan recently inaugurated a railway that connects Kazakhstan to Turkey. All these efforts more closely connect the Iranian economy with SCO allies in Asia.

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European Commission Allows the Transit of Goods to Kaliningrad

In June, Lithuania implemented EU sanctions on Russia by banning the import or transit of a range of Russian goods headed for Kaliningrad via Lithuania. This move effectively cut Kaliningrad off from essential Russian goods, prompting a row between Vilnius and Moscow that threatened to escalate an already tense and dangerous relationship.

Now, the European Commission (EC) has stepped in and clarified that existing sanctions on Russian goods did not apply to goods transported from Russia to Kaliningrad via Lithuania by rail. In response to the EC’s new guidelines, Lithuania will now allow sanctioned Russian goods to transit its territory on their way to Kaliningrad, reversing its policy. Some limits remain in place however, with the EC stipulating that Russia cannot export sanctioned goods transferred to Kaliningrad to other destinations through the European Union.

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