In Geopolitics Today: Monday, September 19th
Violent Clashes Across the Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan Border, The United States to Lift Arms Embargo on Cyprus, and other stories.
China Signs Railroad Deal with Uzbekistan And Kyrgyzstan
China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have signed an agreement to move ahead with the construction of a railroad that would link their countries and establish a shorter route to Europe. The three governments signed the agreement on the side-lines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Uzbekistan.
The deal has been in large part prompted by the interruption of rail routes between China and Europe caused by the war in Ukraine. The proposed rail link would provide a shorter route to Europe bypassing the Trans-Siberian route going through Russia. The idea of building a rail connection across Kyrgyzstan has for long been plagued by steep construction costs and cheaper established alternative routes. Under the terms of the deal, the costs of a viability study will be shared equally, with project costs remaining at an early stage in development.
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Violent Clashes Across the Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan Border
Fighting along the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border commenced last week and has since spread to additional border points. The clashes resumed despite a cease-fire deal reached by the two countries' presidents on the evening of the 15th of September. The two states could escalate the situation as roughly half of the 970 kilometre border remains disputed.
While sporadic clashes between the two states are common in recent years, this latest series of clashes suggests a level of violence greater than that seen in recent incidents. Skirmishes are typically fought over the poorly demarcated borders and water rights, issues that will go unsolved unless both governments come together to embark on a joint commitment to settle issues. Yet Tajikistan’s use of heavy military equipment and military personnel at multiple points across the border suggest that this was a premeditated and planned military operation. There is little doubt that such actions will complicate any potential talks on establishing a enduring resolution, and therefore presents a deterioration of the security landscape in Central Asia.
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The United States to Lift Arms Embargo on Cyprus
The United States has decided to lift a decades-old arms embargo based on the condition that Cyprus continues to block Russian warships from entering its ports. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has reportedly determined that Cyprus has met the conditions to allow for the export, re-export and transfer of defence equipment for the fiscal year 2023.
The United States first imposed the arms embargo on the whole of Cyprus in 1987 in the hope it could encourage its reunification. The Mediterranean island has been divided between the internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus and a breakaway state set up after a Turkish invasion launched in 1974 in response to a coup sponsored by the military junta then ruling Greece. Washington’s decision has been lauded by Cypriot and Greek officials yet condemned by their Turkish counterparts. Turkey strongly condemned Washington’s decision and warned it could lead to an arms race.
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The EU to Cut Funding to Hungary
the European Commission has proposed suspending €7.5 billion in EU funding for Hungary. The weaponization of EU funds is intended to coerce Hungarian officials and elites for the purpose of attaining changes in policy. The funding withdrawal threatens roughly a third of the total amount of funds that Hungary is allocated until 2027.
The Commission is acting on the basis of the conditionality mechanism that was agreed upon as part of the EU’s budget since January 2021, allowing the EU to suspend payments to any member state where breaches of ‘rule of law principles’ risk affecting the EU’s financial interests. An EU official is quoted as saying that that this new mechanist will allow Brussels to take “preventative actions” against member states that Brussels perceives “concerns about the nature of the system.”