In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, September 21st
Russia Mobilizes its Reserves, Germany to Nationalize Uniper, and other stories.
Russia Mobilizes its Reserves
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia will mobilize 300,000 reservists, marking a significant escalation in the war. The mobilization measures will help Russia hold the territory it controls in Ukraine in the medium to long term, but will be insufficient to conduct any major offensives deep into Ukraine in the coming months.
The decree grants Moscow broad authority to expand and tailor the mobilization to Russia's needs at a later date. As such, the stated 300,000 newly mobilized personnel should be viewed as a minimum goal that will likely be expanded. In addition to the mobilization, Russia is preparing to annex the regions in Ukraine its forces currently control in an attempt to deter further Ukrainian attacks. Related to this was Putin’s threat to resort to the use of nuclear weapons if the war to turns against Russia in what may soon be annexed Russian territory.
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Commercial Tech Proves Battlefield Effective in Ukraine
Satellites, drones, artificial intelligence, and cyber capabilities are just some of the central forms of war support that has significantly helped Ukraine withstand the Russian invasion. New NATO technologies have been working in concert with traditional military hardware, empowering Ukraine’s capabilities and frustrating Russian forces.
Relatively cheap commercial technologies like Starlink satellites and small drones have determined battlefield outcomes in Ukraine. The battlefield in Ukraine is quickly becoming a case study for understanding how new technologies operate in a conventional land war alongside all traditional weapons of war. Satellites are also increasingly available for purchase commercially, with small commercial satellite systems already contributing to Ukraine’s ability to understand Russian troop movements and guide strikes.
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Germany to Nationalize Uniper
Germany is set to nationalize gas giant Uniper under a deal with Germany’s top gas importer and its majority shareholder, Finland-based firm Fortum, aimed at preventing a collapse of the German energy and gas suppliers. The deal will see the German government take a 98.5% stake in the firm at a cost of €8.5 billion.
Germany is scrambling to save its energy companies after they amassed losses with buying gas at high prices on the spot market to replace lost Russian volumes. The agreement replaces an initial plan, which saw Berlin take only 30% of the country’s largest gas importer. Germany’s state-owned investment and development bank, KfW, will provide financing to Uniper. The nationalization of a major energy firm is likely to be part of a trend that goes beyond Uniper as Berlin is already planning to take control and shore up positions in other struggling utilities.
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Saudi Arabia Mediates Russia-Ukraine Prisoner Swap
Russia on Wednesday released 10 foreign prisoners of war captured in Ukraine following mediation by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi foreign ministry said. Saudi authorities have reportedly facilitated the safe return of American, British, Croatian, Moroccan and Swedish nationals taken prisoner by Russian forces in Ukraine.
Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have captured hundreds of fighters since the start of the conflict, with only a handful prisoner exchanges taking place thus far. Both belligerents are now engaged in efforts to agree on further prisoner swaps. This week alone the two warring sides agreed to exchange 200 prisoners in one of the largest swaps since the war escalated in February. Ryiadh’s involvement is intended to build trust and curry favour with both Kiev and Moscow at a time when the war is escalating.