In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, September 22nd
Somali Offensive Sees Progress with US Support, Iran Expresses Interest in Russian Su-35, and other stories.
Somali Offensive Sees Progress with US Support
In May, the United States has made the decision to redeploy hundreds of special forces troops back to Somalia to help the allied government defeat al Shabaab militants. Now, the Somali government claims to have forced al Shabaab militants out of dozens of villages that the militant group has used as strongholds in Somalia's central Hiran region.
The recent victories highlight the benefits of United States Central Command (CENTCOM) coordinating local forces on the ground in the fight against al Shabaab. However, recaptured territory must be governed and protected, and Somalia's decentralized and contested security environment creates openings for continued conflict between federal, state and local authorities. If the government's alliances with local militias continue and expand with more victories, the offensive may prove sustainable.
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War in Ukraine and Sino-Russian Relations
Despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russia, the Sino-Russian relationship has shown remarkable resilience. To this day there is little evidence that Beijing is distancing itself from Moscow in any concrete way, and the recent SCO summit in Samarkand reinforced this notion.
One of China’s primary concerns for the relationship is Russia’s domestic stability in light of setbacks on the battlefield. Russian regime security is a top concern for Xi Jinping as he seeks to guard against “colour revolutions” instigated by external forces and firmly opposes the interference of outside powers in the domestic affairs of other countries. Given that Xi has invested so much personal capital in the personal relationship with the Russian leadership, and China’s Russia policy more generally, it is unlikely that Xi would change course now drastically alter the relationship.
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Iran Expresses Interest in Russian Su-35
The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) plans to purchase Russian Su-35 Flanker-E fighter jets. The move follows reports that Tehran is providing Moscow with attack drones for its war in Ukraine in exchange for Su-35s to upgrade Iran's antiquated air force.
The last time Iran imported new jets was in 1990 when it bought 18 MiG-29A Fulcrums and 12 Su-24MK Fencers from the Soviet Union. Tehran has has been unable to buy new jet fighters for decades because of economic sanctions imposed by the United States, and this has meant that any nation violating these sanctions risked having sanctions imposed on them. When Russia was hit with heavy sanctions earlier this year, the risk of incurring US sanctions over the transfer of fighter aircraft to Iran were made redundant, opening the door for the transfer of Russian Su-35s to Iran.
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Brazil Buys New Helicopters
The Brazilian armed forces have acquired 27 single engine H125 helicopters through the Combat Aircraft Programme Coordinating Committee to boost the training capacity of the Brazilian Navy and the Air Force. The new aircraft will replace AS350 and Bell 206 helicopters currently in use by the two services.
The H125 will be produced in the final assembly line located in Itajubá, Brazil at Helibras' factory where the other aircraft for the Brazilian armed forces are assembled. These new helicopters will replace the ageing AS350 and Bell 206 helicopters currently in service with two branches of the Brazilian armed forces. Brazil’s armed forces currently operate a total of 156 Airbus helicopters deployed from its eight bases across the country, and this purchase is a continuation of its partnership with Airbus.