In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, October 4th
In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, October 4th
Ukraine Gains Ground along the South and East Axes, Yemen Ceasefire Expires, and other stories.
Sweden Lifts Arms Embargo on Turkey
In accordance with the tripartite agreement signed between Turkey, Sweden and Finland regarding the candidacy of the two Nordic countries to NATO membership, Sweden recently resumed arms sales to Turkey. Ankara has demanded that Sweden lift an arms export ban and extradite Kurdish officials before allowing both Finland and Sweden into NATO.
Turkey has not yet ratified the two countries’ candidacy. Turkey's demand that Sweden extradite certain Kurdish individuals to Turkey remains controversial in Stockholm, but a new government that does not rely on the support of Kurdish legislators may be more willing to meet Ankara’s demands. To secure NATO membership, Sweden will likely to appease Ankara and extradite Kurds that Turkey accuses of association with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
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Ukraine Gains Ground along the South and East Axes
Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian defences along the southern and eastern axes, seizing back more territory in areas now formally annexed by Russia and threatening supply lines for Russian troops. Recent weeks have seen some of the most significant Ukrainian breakthroughs since the war began, with Ukrainian forces driving Russian forces out of Lyman and securing several villages along the strategic Dnipro River in the country’s south.
Ukrainian attacks in the Kherson region will expose Russia's entire contingent on the right bank of the Dnieper, making them vulnerable and threatening withdrawals across the river. Ukrainian forces continue their advances on both fronts, seeking to take advantage of its opportunity to attack before Russia concentrates forces to stall the advances. The pace of these offensives has the potential to pressure Moscow into jeopardizing the combat effectiveness of their troops by deploying its newly mobilized forces to the front earlier than planned.
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Yemen Ceasefire Expires
The UN special envoy for Yemen said the ceasefire between the Houthis on the one hand and the Saudi-led coalition expired on agreement on an extension. The truce was extended twice before, and while there was some fighting on the ground, on the whole the ceasefire marked the longest period of calm in the war since the US-backed coalition intervened in 2015.
The expiration of the six-month-old ceasefire could prove to be a major setback for Saudi Arabia, which remains stuck in an expensive quagmire. The truce was negotiated by the United Nations in March and ended major military activity across much of Yemen. The blockade of Houthi-controlled northern Yemen was only partially lifted under the ceasefire, and this has prompted the Houthis to demand the blockade be completely removed. On the Saudi side, the main belligerents wanted the Houthis to open more roads around the city of Taiz. With no agreement reached, fears of a worsening security situation in the region are entirely justified.
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The EU and Israel Hold High-level Talks
High-level officials representing the European Union and Israel have held talks to reaffirm ties and improve mutual understanding. Israel and the European Union have both pledged to continue working together despite a number of key policy disagreements after the resumption of bilateral diplomatic dialogue between officials.
Meetings of the council have been suspended for a decade since Israel ditched them over the EU's opposition to expanding settlements in the West Bank. Recent years have seen the EU working to boost ties with Israel, while Israel’s new prime minister has made restoring friendly ties with Brussels one of his top priorities. Stated disagreements appear to be growing Israeli settlements in the West Bank and the EU’s efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.