In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, October 6th
In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, October 6th
The Ethiopian Government and Tigray Rebels Agree to Peace Talks, Syrian Forces Mobilizing for Offensives Against Insurgents, and other stories.
Germany Sends Delegation to Taiwan
A group of six members of the German parliament are concluding a five-day visit to Taiwan that signals increased political ties between Berlin and Taipei. The stated aim of the cross-party delegation from Germany is to assess Taiwan's security situation and to gain an overview of Taiwan’s economic and political development.
An expansion of future bilateral relations is planned as Germany continues to more closely align its policy on China with that of Washington. German efforts mirror those of the US and its closest allies, all of which aim to politically elevate Taiwan as a legitimate political counter-model and military counterweight to the People’s Republic of China. In addition, the United States aims to significantly weaponize Taiwan in order to strategically use it as one node in a broader security plan to contain Chinese military power within the First Island Chain, though Germany has not established such ties with Taiwan as of yet.
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The Ethiopian Government and Tigray Rebels Agree to Peace Talks
Ethiopia’s government and rebels from the country’s Tigray region have both reportedly accepted an invitation by the African Union to participate in peace talks. The African Union invited the rival parties to negotiations aimed at ending the two-year conflict, with the talks expected to take place in South Africa.
The willingness of both parties to participate in peace talks is notable after two years of civil war. A renewed cease-fire will need to be negotiated first, after which the two sides can start to build trust. A peace agreement ending the war, however, could still be a distant reality. Any deal will have to account for Ethiopian and Tigrayan mutually exclusive interests and goals, as well as those of Eritrea, whose military involvement was integral to the Ethiopian government’s battlefield successes.
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Syrian Forces Mobilizing for Offensives Against Insurgents
Syria declared a state of war and mobilized troops in order to neutralize “terrorists” that “threaten” the Syrian state. The mobilization was implemented to carry out concentrated offensives on cities across the country, and is a continuation of Syrian President Bashar Assad's crackdown against rebel groups supported by foreign powers.
The Syrian military is mobilizing with Russian and Iranian support, for major offensives that will likely target Islamic State and militia groups operating in the Syrian desert. IS has managed to remain active by operating in sparsely populated desert areas and undertaking hit-and-run attacks. The Syrian campaign against militants in the desert is unlikely to eliminate all resistance. Previous offensives launched with Russian air support have all failed to dislodge IS hideouts in the desert.
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Russia Claims Ownership Of Ukraine Nuclear Plant
Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a decree that states that Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is now a Russian federal asset. In effect, Russia will be absorbing all facilities and employees of the nuclear power plant.
The plant was captured by Russian forces in March, with Ukrainian employees running day-to-day operations until now. The plant is located in a region that Russia has annexed, though the government in Ukraine denies Russia’s authority on both the power plant and the region. Ukraine’s state energy agency categorically rejected the Russian decree, announcing that its state energy agency was taking over the plant.