In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, October 11th
Lebanon and Israel Reach Agreement on Maritime Borders, Germany Begins IRIS-T Air Defence System Deliveries to Ukraine, and other stories.
Lebanon and Israel Reach Agreement on Maritime Borders
Israel's Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Lebanon's President Michel Aoun have announced agreement in a US-mediated maritime deal. Under the deal, the Karish natural gas field will go to Israel and the Qana natural gas field to Lebanon, with minor modifications to the maritime border.
The deal is a breakthrough for Lebanese-Israeli relations, and will ease tensions over natural gas fields located near the Levantine coast. For Lebanon, the deal promises lucrative energy profits if political dysfunction can be overcome. It is likely to be years before the Qana field is up and running. On the other hand, Israel is well positioned to invest in the necessary infrastructure needed to extract and transfer natural gas on a shorter time-scale.
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Russia Responds to Attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge with Missile Strikes
In retaliation for this weekend's attack on the strategic Kerch Strait bride linking Crimea to Russia, Moscow has launched missiles at dozens of targets across Ukraine. The cruise missile attack on power stations and other infrastructure have exposed weaknesses in Ukrainian missile defence.
In a televised address, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he had ordered long-range strikes against Ukrainian energy, command and communication targets. The mass attack utilized cruise missiles fired from air, sea and land, launched in response to an attack on the Kerch Strait bridge. The strikes seek to signal to Ukraine the kind of response that will follow attacks on strategic infrastructure in Russian. In addition, the threats of further strikes seek to deter future Ukrainian sabotage attempts. However, this would likely only be successful if Moscow is able to respond with overwhelming consistently.
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The US Preparing a Response to OPEC+ Production Cuts
The decision by OPEC+ last week to cut its production by two million barrels of oil a day has been received with displeasure in Washington. Officials in the United States have expressed concerns that Moscow and Riyadh are working together against US interests, floating a number of policy options to respond to the decision.
The Biden administration and officials in Congress have moved to adjust the US-Saudi relationship, as the production cuts ensure oil prices will stay high. Senator Bob Menendez, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, demanded the US freeze all cooperation with Saudi Arabia “beyond what is absolutely necessary.” The timing of the OPEC+ move places the Biden administration in a difficult situation, with each potential policy response having potentially dire political consequences.
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Germany Begins IRIS-T Air Defence System Deliveries to Ukraine
Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced in June that Germany would deliver the Iris T system — capable of shielding cities from Russian air raids — to Ukraine. Germany has now transferred a single IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine, the first of four such systems to be transferred.
Germany is fulfilling its promise to shore up Ukrainian air defences with deliveries of the IRIS-T air defense system. Germany is now Ukraine's main European backer, with Berlin continuing to transfer weapons that even its own forces do not have. Scholz has stated that his government has ensured the delivery of “anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, mines, guns, tons of ammunition, and non-lethal aid.” Increasingly, Berlin is also transferring more advanced systems to Ukraine, with a number of other German systems already in action.