In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, October 12th
The United States and Russia Court Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan Invests in Turkish Drone Fleet, and other stories.
The United States and Russia Court Turkmenistan
Moscow and Washington are each looking to gain influence in Turkmenistan as competition between the two powers in Central Asia intensifies. With vast energy reserves, the country produces more than 300,000 tons of liquefied natural gas, and the government has ambitious for this figure to grow with the help of foreign investment.
Despite the recent improvement in ties between Russia and Turkmenistan, limits to cooperation remain. Key among them is Turkmenistan’s refusal to join Russia-led regional integration projects, a consequence of Ashgabat’s attempt to maintain a multi-vector foreign policy that promotes equidistance from global centres of power. This means Ashgabat has been receptive to US and Chinese proposals for infrastructure investments, and its leaders continue their efforts at playing competing major powers off each other.
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Copper Shortages a Vulnerability for the United States
The United States’ economy, industry, and security remain somewhat vulnerable to copper shortages. With demand increasing and pressure growing on securing US supply chains, policymakers in Washington must now prepare for a shortfall. Growing geopolitical turmoil and recent trade wars highlight the risks that supply shortages have on domestic consumption, financial volatility, and international leverage.
Part of reinforcing the domestic supply chain will be redefining “critical minerals” that are needed for growing the US economy and ensuring self-sufficiency. The current geopolitical turmoil is indicative of the need to be self-sufficient and ensure mineral independence on the road toward energy security. Ongoing discussions by the London Metal Exchange on whether to implement a ban on Russian metals signal that the metal may soon be more scarce.
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The EU Revokes the Diplomatic Status of Nicaragua’s Envoy
Weeks after Nicaragua expelled the EU ambassador in Managua, Brussels has declared the head of Nicaragua’s delegation to the European bloc a “persona non grata,” — thereby revoking their status as a diplomat.
The move follows a flurry of diplomatic activity as pressure on Nicaragua mounts from Washington and Brussels. This month, the Nicaraguan government announced a suspension of diplomatic relations with the Netherlands over accusations of interventionism. Moreover, Managua has rejected the appointment of a new United States ambassador due to “interfering” in the country’s domestic affairs. The US has already imposed a series of sanctions on Nicaragua, including US visa restrictions on state officials and their relatives.
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Kazakhstan Invests in Turkish Drone Fleet
In recent years, Kazakhstan has sought to balance against Russia by boosting military capabilities and engaging with a number of regional powers. As a result of these efforts, Astana will soon operate an impressive fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) sourced from China, Israel and Turkey. In addition, the country also intends to involve its own defence industry in facilitating the design and production of UAVs.
Kazakhstan is seeking to boost military capabilities and deepen its ties with partners such as China and Turkey to offset its reliance on Russia. This forms a part of the country’s multi-vector foreign policy, aiming to benefit from appeasing different world powers. This has involved broadening cooperation with China and Turkey. In a recent meeting of the Turkey-Kazakhstan High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, Ankara and Astana signed cooperation documents on foreign policy and investment, trade and economics, transport and logistics, military industry, energy, and agriculture.