In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, October 13th
China-Poland Relations Strained by the War in Ukraine, Israel Providing Intelligence to Ukraine, and other stories.
The EU Warns Turkey over Ties with Russia
The European Union is increasingly concerned with Turkey’s growing ties with Russia. Ankara’s reluctance to join the EU’s sanctions against Russia growing trade and financial relations between the two countries has prompted the European Commission to increase pressure on Ankara.
Turkey has been engaged in a delicate balancing act since the Russian invasion of Ukraine entered a new phase in February this year. Though Turkey’s Foreign Minister maintains that this places Turkey in a unique position for mediation, this position becomes more difficult as the war continues. Ankara’s choice not to sanction Russia is of concern to Brussels because of the free circulation of products within the EU-Turkey Customs Union, enabling sanctions evasion by Russia via Turkey.
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China-Poland Relations Strained by the War in Ukraine
Relations between China and Poland, once strong, have deteriorated in recent months, in large part due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The war has produced two different reactions from Beijing and Warsaw, with China reluctant to condemn Russia and Poland one of the key backers of Ukraine against.
Yet both countries remain of strategic importance to each other. In 2015, Poland signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation within the Belt and Road Initiative framework with China. One year later, the two countries elevated their bilateral ties toward a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” a designation of diplomatic proximity that China shares with a number of other important partners. Now, the war is complicating matters between the two, and the future of the relationship is uncertain.
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Israel Providing Intelligence to Ukraine
A Ukrainian official claims that Israel is providing intelligence to the Ukrainian armed forces. The New York Times reports that intelligence is being shared on the Iranian-built Shahed drones that have struck targets across Ukraine in recent weeks. In addition, a private Israeli satellite company reportedly provides Russian troop locations for the Ukrainian military.
Israel has steadily tilted toward Ukraine as the war in Ukraine war has gone on. A seemingly neutral approach to the war was chosen by Israel because of social, military and diplomatic ties to Russia. However, in recent months, Israel seems more willing to support Ukraine in ways that achieve positive outcomes on the battlefield. Israel's current strategy of supporting Ukraine covertly while also maintaining cordial ties with Russia is intended to minimize the potential damage caused to the Israeli economy as an effect of the war.
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China Looks to Secure Economic Cooperation with the Philippines
China and the Philippines have agreed to cooperate under the Belt and Road Initiative on semiconductors, electronics and energy. This will see the two countries build complementary industrial parks that offer tax breaks and other incentives. The first of these industrial parks is expected to be built in China’s Fujian province, with a corresponding park located in the Philippines.
As the United States continues to decouple from China, Beijing is looking to establish alternative production bases and supply chains. China's efforts to court the Philippines are due to Beijing’s need to use the geographic position of the Philippines to maintain supply chains across the Pacific. The Philippines is so far unlikely to side with either China or the US amid their strategic competition, the country will look to perpetuate strong economic ties with both world powers.