As China becomes an increasingly powerful international actor, holding an informed understanding of its regional and global intentions grows in importance. This is especially the case at a time when public discourse on the meaning of China's rapid rise can fall anywhere between painting China as a state hell-bent on world domination to one of China as a benevolent hegemon. What, then, are the principles guiding Chinese grand strategy in the first half of the 21st century?
A previous post explored the core interests China seeks to pursue and the threats it faces as its policymakers navigate a complex international environment. In this post we continue our discussion of what might constitute China's grand strategy for the first half of the twentieth century by focusing on the ways China harnesses its resources in developing policies aimed at securing its core interests and mitigating the most pressing threats.
This second instalment will seek to unpack the policies and initiatives (diplomatic, economic and military) that China has developed in order to achieve its goals, protect its core interests, and counter perceived threats.
Diplomatic
China’s approach to diplomacy is typically associated with the concept of peaceful development. China’s Peaceful Development White Paper defines this concept by stating that “China's overall goal of pursuing peaceful development is to promote development and harmony domestically and pursue cooperation and peace internationally”. In practice, this translates to the maintenance of a stable international environment (especially in China's periphery) which positively contributes to its economic development. At the same time, Chinese policymakers seek to constantly reassure countries in its near-abroad that it has benign intentions toward them. The desired outcome of these policies is an international environment less prone to security dilemma dynamics, and one in which a strategy of balancing or containment toward China is less desirable. This, in turn, would support domestic stability, ensure economic growth, and allow Chinese officials to concentrate on the country's most pressing challenges.
China is also working to delicately counteract what it perceives as excessive U.S. influence in its periphery. China wants a greater role in shaping its own security environment while diligently working to avoid overt conflict with the United States. A critical element of China’s diplomatic policy in this pursuit of a favourable international environment is found in its promotion of ‘win-win cooperation’ and common development, all culminating in mutually beneficial opportunities for its friends and neighbours. The tremendous growth of the Chinese economy has only further bolstered China's ability to provide investment incentives to its regional neighbours.
China has also used its economic leverage to warn other states that infringing on China’s vital interests or attempting to contain China would see those countries miss out on the benefits of trade and investment. Prominent Chinese diplomat, Dai Bingguo, has outlined this diplomatic stance most clearly when he urged other nations to take China's development as an opportunity to be seized. At the same time, he warned that those who doubt China's intentions and seek to delay its development "will lose the good opportunity to cooperate with China."
While the diplomatic language coming from Beijing has typically been peaceful in tone, usually emphasizing the avoidance of controversy and the use of cooperative rhetoric, there has been a noticeable shift in China's diplomatic protocol in recent years. Dubbed as 'Wolf Warrior diplomacy' after a highly successful Chinese action film, this is a more aggressive diplomatic approach which sees China's dignitaries increasingly denouncing criticism of China in public statements, interviews, and on social media. It is a stark contrast to almost all the diplomatic niceties once pursued and fostered by previous Chinese leaders in their relationships with the outside world.
Economic
At the forefront of China’s foreign policy are the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiatives, also known as 'One Belt One Road' (OBOR). It is through these initiatives that Premier Xi seeks to promote a ‘common destiny’ by meeting the development needs of not just China, but all countries along the proposed routes. The initiative looks to build connectivity through infrastructure investment between Asia, Europe and Africa via land and sea routes by aligning the development strategies of the signatory countries. It would drastically improve the region’s infrastructure, develop economically viable land, sea, and air corridors, increase interconnectedness, facilitate trade and investment, thereby creating demand and jobs. The bulk of this investment would be funded by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Through the Belt and Road initiative and the AIIB, China would be ideally positioned to protect its core interests and help it overcome its major threats in four key areas.
First, China's heavy involvement in the construction of a vast infrastructure network will enable it to shape its economic relationships more favourably to its interests. For instance, the AIIB will act as a direct competitor to the Bretton Woods institutions dominated by the United States, allowing China to more effectively counteract U.S. economic influence in the region. Second, the initiatives will dramatically boost trade in scarcely-developed regions of China, creating jobs and boosting domestic growth. China’s leadership recognizes that there is an opportunity for domestic development in turning the province of Xinjiang into a communication, trade and transportation hub as part of OBOR. Third, a majority of the countries signed up to the OBOR infrastructure projects running through Central Asia are relatively poor, and infrastructure investment and increased trade of such a magnitude can greatly benefit these countries. This is a particularly prescient example of China's win-win approach, and an apt demonstration of how China can win the favour of foreign elites. Fourth, OBOR opens up alternative sources of energy for China. This is significant because establishing new economic corridors through which trade and influence flow freely can go a long way to mitigating the ‘Malacca Dilemma’ specifically, and China’s energy insecurity more broadly.
Military
China has actively pursued a program of military modernisation in an effort to build up its armed forces proportionate with China's "international standing” and ones that are better able to safeguard China's core security needs. China’s leadership has attached a particular importance to maritime security and information superiority, especially as regards operations in space, cyberspace and the electro-magnetic domains. This focus supports the military’s important role in gaining victory in local conflicts under the conditions of informational dominance. And this also reflects a policy focus which seeks to counterbalance the main threats to China’s core interests: resource and energy security, maritime territorial disputes, Taiwanese separatism, and the threat of the United States and its alliance structure.
Because China’s defence forces (both conventional and nuclear) are still far inferior to those of the United States, China has primarily focused on developing its asymmetrical warfare capabilities. This has seen an intensified focus placed on information and electronic warfare involving the use of instruments in space, cyberspace and the electro-magnetic domains in order to attain an information advantage over adversaries by disrupting their networks of communication. China has also invested heavily in bolstering its power projection capabilities, and what military analysts typically call anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. The purpose of A2/AD is to deter or defeat an intervention by an outside power during a large-scale military campaign in China’s maritime periphery. It is important to note that, taking in mind the One China policy, this also includes capabilities over Taiwan. China's growing power projection capabilities serve to deter adversaries in the western Pacific Ocean and enhance China’s ability to project power over its sea lines of communication.
Territorial Disputes
Finally, there has been considerable debate about China's territorial disputes and the increasing assertiveness with which China acts in its peripheral seas. Whether this be the deployment of an oil rig in disputed waters off the coast of Vietnam or the various land reclamation projects creating artificial islands housing military facilities, it is clear that China is taking a more active role in its region.
As discussed in the previous instalment, maritime territorial disputes directly relate to the fundamental interests of state sovereignty and territorial integrity. China's claims in the East China Sea and South China Sea are viewed by Chinese policymakers as the sovereign territory of China. For the territories it has direct control over, China is demonstrating its authority as sovereignty under international law. Where China does not have direct control, China consistently demonstrates stern opposition to any rival authority as a means of strengthening its sovereign claims. In the South China Sea, China is rapidly developing its power projection capabilities through its land reclamation project. The intended outcome of these policies will see China bolstering the security of its sea lines of communication and assuming a greater role in its maritime periphery.
Ultimately, there is an inescapable contradiction between China’s core interest of promoting peaceful development and asserting its maritime sovereignty and territorial claims. This is because the more China throws its weight around, the more pronounced the concern in the capitals of China's neighbours regarding China's intentions. This has the effect of undermining China’s rhetoric of peaceful development and pushing concerned neighbours ever closer to the United States and its alliance structure as a means of balancing China. To mitigate the damage of such policies, China seems to be following a strategy of assertive actions followed by a dialing down of activities. This is how China has been able to repair diplomatic ties and consolidate its gains while diligently avoiding escalation to overt military conflict.