In Geopolitics This Week
Natural Gas & the UK, Russia’s Military Aircraft Showing Their Age, The Uncertain Future of International Cooperation in Space, and other stories.
Monday, September 20th
Natural Gas & the UK
The price of natural gas futures has more than doubled between January and August this year. Suppliers are paying more for natural gas to be delivered in the coming months compared to what they pay on the spot today. A rise in natural gas futures means that buyers and sellers on the markets are expecting natural gas to be more expensive in the months ahead. But production has remained relatively stable, falling by less than 3% globally in 2020.
The United Kingdom sources 44% of its natural gas from reserves found in its surrounding seas, a further 47% via pipeline from Norway and Russia, and the remaining 9% arrives as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) via ocean tankers. While the UK has long maintained a steady regional supply of natural gas, the surge in seaborn LNG tankers over the last couple of decades have transformed it into a globalized commodity. At the same time, the deregulation and financialization of the UK’s natural gas has exposed consumers to the volatilities imposed by geopolitics on the market price of natural gas.
In 2020, the UK imported most of its LNG from Qatar, the US and Russia. Of the three, Russia has reportedly reduced its gas shipments to continental Europe, which has resulted in European natural gas stockpiles to sit at historic lows. This reduction has sparked fears of a regional natural gas shortage across Europe, which has in turn pushed up natural gas prices. Russia accounts for roughly 25% of global natural gas production and supplies about 40% of the natural gas consumed in Europe each year, making its state-owned giant Gazprom a major player in European — and the UK’s — energy market(s).
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Afghanistan’s Geoeconomic Future
The limits of military might in Afghanistan have been amply demonstrated by the withdrawal of both Soviet and American forces. Each power entered their respective misadventures as the overwhelmingly superior belligerent against local insurgent forces, and each depleted their power, resources, and will in the process. With the Taliban now consolidating power in Afghanistan, how the Islamic Emirate will utilise the substantial amounts of strategic metallic minerals will largely determine Afghanistan’s role in the region.
Research conducted at a time when Afghanistan was still under the NATO occupation has suggested that the country’s mineral wealth contains an estimated 1.4 million tons of rare-earth minerals. Afghanistan is a country abundantly rich in metals crucial for the production of batteries for electronic devices, electric cars, and solar technologies. Afghanistan is also a leading producer of opium which can operate as a highly strategic commodity. How the Taliban chooses to approach opium production and trade will be consequential. Whether the Taliban will be able, or indeed willing, to apply and enforce appropriate standards and regulations over the production of poppy remains to be seen, and will prove to be challenging regardless. The Taliban could also choose to engage in illegal drug sales, or even to weaponize opium flows against hostile international forces, a powerful yet risky capability.
Afghanistan possesses considerable geoeconomic value to the region too. Kabul can play a pivotal role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Access to the vast deposits of mineral wealth and energy resources in Afghanistan would spur economic growth and regional infrastructure development. If Kabul and Beijing are able to ensure security for an infrastructure transformation, Afghanistan could be regionally integrated as a transit hub between Iran and Central Asia, and Central Asia and Beijing. And there appears no one better position to attempt such an endeavour than China, as they have the necessary capital, political will and capability to realistically develop the infrastructure networks required.
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Tuesday, September 21st
Sudan Thwarts Military Coup
The Sudanese government has made a statement detailing how military officers together with civilians attempted a coup that has been swiftly brought under control. Those now captured by government forces are widely reported to be supporters of the deposed former president Omar al-Bashi, and a government spokesman said that the arrested suspects are being interrogated for their role in the attempted coup. The plotters are said to have attempted to take control of a state media buildings in Omdurman, as well as the Omdurman Radio headquarters.
The coup comes at a time when Sudan is suffering from high inflation and soaring unemployment rates, both of which have fuelled popular discontent. Protests have erupted repeatedly recently, particularly over the past year as opposition against International Monetary Fund reforms and other issues spread across the country. Disagreements within the state apparatus have also emerged over corruption and a lack of transparency, with leaks of infighting reported over deals made with armed group leaders.
Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok says the coup attempt was preceded by others attempting to create insecurity, especially in the east of Sudan where supporters of former Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir are said to have closed highways connecting the capital Khartoum to Port Sudan. If government reports are to be believed, high-ranking members of the military as well as civilians were heavily involved in the coup attempt as the Sudanese government announced over 40 military officers have been arrested. Sudan is currently ruled by a joint civilian and military government which is attempting to undertake drastic and unpopular IMF reforms. At the same time, its relations with neighbouring Ethiopia are at an all-time low.
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Greece Conducts Joint Exercise with Egypt, Greece & Saudi Arabia
Greece has recently taken concrete steps to modernise its armed forces and to bolster its security arrangements in the Eastern Mediterranean. Greek Special Operations forces will train alongside special forces units from the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia for a multi-day exercise. According to the Saudi Ministry of Defence, the exercise is aimed at exchanging experiences and concepts, enhancing joint cooperation, and raising the level of combat readiness in all participant nations.
The joint exercise comes at a time when tensions are running high between Turkey and Greece, as well as the Gulf Arab states. Despite Turkey's best efforts to remedy the situation by attempting to reconcile relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, there appears to be little change in the attitudes of these countries toward many of Ankara’s policies. As members of the Arab League, they have accused Turkey of interference in regional affairs, and all have pushed back against Turkish influence in the region in recent years.
Saudi Arabia boycotted Turkish goods, the UAE offered help to Assad if Syria fights the Turkish military in Syria, Greece militarised islands close to the Turkish coastline, and Egypt has played a hand in stifling Turkish interests in Libya. Now all are strengthening military ties with a weary eye on Turkey. While this deepened cooperation does not necessarily include a defence clause or anything that might be called a defensive alliance, it nonetheless signals to Turkey that its actions will have limits imposed by a coalition fearful of Turkish expansion.
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Wednesday, September 22nd
UAE & UK Launch “Partnership for the Future”
The United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom have recently signed multiple memorandums of understanding, deepening ties on matters of defence and artificial intelligence. The agreements were launched under a “Partnership for the Future” program between the two nation and signals the intent to transfer AI-related knowledge, investments and standards to the UAE. The UK Ministry of Defence is seeking to strengthen cooperation in defence-related research and development with Abu Dhabi.
Mohamed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, met with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson where the two spoke highly of their cooperation. The first UK-UAE public collaboration on AI began in May 2019 with AI partnerships and investments increasing significantly between the UK and the UAE in the years since. A joint statement following this recent round of meetings state that both countries have “developed stronger industrial ties through collaboration in defence and security.”
The two parties are said to still be in the exploration phase of cooperation, but even so the memorandums signed focus on aligning existing R&D programs and supply chains, as well as to maintaining, repairing, and operating research divisions. The UK and the UAE are reportedly also looking to support start-ups in both countries to cultivate a broader portfolio of products and technologies for the Emirati military.
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Jordan and Syria Working to Restore Relations
The recent visit of Syria’s defence minister, General Ali Ayyoub, to Jordan marks a diplomatic turning point in relations between Syria and Joran. Damascus had previously accused Amman of funding and training rebel fighters, which then were allowed enter Syria through its border with Jordan. Jordan and Syria have been at odds since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011 when Jordanian King Abdullah II sided with the United States. Relations between Damascus and Amman formally broke down in 2014.
The diplomatic reversal from Amman was first signalled in 2018, when Jordan appointed a senior diplomat to Damascus, thereby upgrading diplomatic ties after first recalling its ambassador at the onset of the Syrian Civil War in 2011. Leaders in Jordan have since come to accept the reality that Assad is staying in power, and are now acknowledging that dialogue and coordination are needed. Relations are developing first and foremost in the realm of security, and will initially focus on securing the border between the two countries in order to facilitate economic ties.
Jordan’s Minister for Media Affairs alluded to this when discussing future areas of cooperation with Syria. He said that a meeting between Syrian and Jordanian ministers is forthcoming, and will entail discussions about “a variety of economic issues between the two countries.” Initial meetings covering economic cooperation in areas of mutual interest are said to already be planned between the agriculture, energy, and water ministries. Cooperation between Syria and Jordan on regional matters is also seeing positive signs, as was demonstrated when the energy ministers of Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan came together to sign a deal to transport gas from Egypt to Lebanon via Syria and Jordan.
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Thursday, September 23rd
Russia’s Military Aircraft Showing Their Age
The Russian Air Force has had a difficult year so far. During the month of August alone, the Air Force lost five aircraft due to accidents, all within a two-week period. Among the aircraft lost in this latest series of accidents are an Su-24 fighter-bomber, two MiG-29 fighter jets, and a Be-200 twin-jet amphibious aircraft. Age, poor design and, more importantly, insufficient maintenance all together make the loss rate for the Russian Air Force much higher than that of its peers.
For the United States, a rival of Russia, combat aircraft have been refined over decades, now offering better reliability and allowing for easier maintenance. Better engineering practices as well as the widespread adoption of advanced sensor technologies have also made it easier for maintenance personnel to detect potential problems on highly complex aircraft. Much of the costs involved in fielding America’s advanced fighter aircraft are made up of continual maintenance and upgrade phases. These costs, while staggering for something like the F-35, are nonetheless expenses the US is able and willing to bear.
Some estimates place Russian military loss rates for aircraft in similar terms to NATO-operated loss rates some fifty years ago. But in Russia’s case, many of these accidents with long-serving aircraft could be avoided if Russia were able to uphold a more efficient maintenance framework. The incident involving the loss of the MiG-29, for instance, occurred while the aircraft was undergoing maintenance during which it is said the aircraft caught fire. US and NATO maintenance crews are often veterans who remain in uniform to give their forces an edge in reliability, readiness and low loss rates. The Russian Air Force, on the other hand, is constrained by a volunteer force and a severe lack of funds, limiting what it can do as it maintains increasingly outdated Soviet-era aircraft.
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India Undertaking Drastic Reorganisation of its Military
India has for many years neglected any concrete plans to overhaul its military. But now such aspirations are getting a new life as Prime Minister Modi’s government aligns ever-closer to the US and its allies. Modi will attend a meeting of Quad leaders at the White House on Friday while at the same time he moves to integrate the army, air force and navy at home. A more unified armed forces would primarily make it easier for India to link up with forces from the US and its allies.
Early attempts at collaborative exercises between Quad partners have led the group to conclude that they are only able to exercise with one Indian service at a time. Over recent decades, Indian leaders have worked to keep military command and control structures divided between the main military arms in order to avoid coups. Considering Washington’s longstanding focus on inter-operability as well as a recent push to integrate military communication across all domains, potential operations in tandem with India are problematic under present circumstances.
The move to restructure the military is ultimately designed to allow India’s forces to operate seamlessly across land, sea, and air together with Quad partner nations. All this is necessary because the three services still don’t have a secure communication network. Under current proposals, existing theatre commands would be expected to pool assets and resources to effectively deal with threats emanating from China and Pakistan. At the same time, India will look to shift away its imbalanced focus on the Army and its land forces, and move toward building up capabilities in Indo-Pacific waters.
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Friday, September 24th
The Uncertain Future of International Cooperation in Space
Space is rapidly being embraced by states as a crucial new frontier. Governments are pouring more and more treasure into national space programs, transforming space into a new battleground for political and diplomatic disputes. The International Space Station (ISS), a long-running platform for international cooperation in space, will soon no longer be in operation. The continued exclusion of China from the project has led to divergent plans and increased distrust between major space-faring powers. With relations between the two largest players increasingly hostile on Earth, the future of international cooperation in space is uncertain.
As the top funder of the ISS, the United States possesses immense decision-making power over the station’s operations. And this power has meant that China has been unable to participate in the ISS project due to Washington’s objections over the military nature of China National Space Administration’s (CNSA) work. Since forming the CNSA in 1993, China has seriously invested in growing its space program despite being left in the cold by Washington, and has made significant strides. It was not until 2007, when Beijing successfully conducted an anti-satellite missile test, that planners in Washington began to raise concerns about China’s capabilities in space. In 2011, the US Congress passed the Wolf Amendment, banning government cooperation with the CNSA without clearance from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Congress.
Cooperation between the US and China on the ISS project is now also improbable on the grounds that the ISS is expected to cease operations in 2028, leaving little time for any dialogue and discussion to take place over any such initiative. After being excluded from participation in the ISS project, China is developing partnerships in anticipation of the completion of its Tiangong Space Station which is currently being built. Cooperation in space between the two foremost space-faring nations, especially given the US’ staunch opposition to China’s growing space power, seems unlikely in the years ahead.
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SE Asia Divided Over AUKUS Pact
In the wake of the new tripartite partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, leaders across Southeast Asia have expressed mixed reactions to the news. Their statements have been indicative of their respective country’s policy preferences abroad, and have illustrated a region divided. Indonesia and Malaysia in particular expressed concern over the new deal, with Malaysia announcing that it will seek out China’s views on AUKUS.
Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said the agreement has the potential to provoke aggressive actions, and could even prove to be a “catalyst for a nuclear arms race” in the region. Malaysia’s announcement went further to say that Kuala Lumpur will seek out Beijing’s opinion on the new AUKUS deal and the regional security implications which arise from it. Indonesia also reacted with unease toward AUKUS, expressing their concerns over the implications such a deal will have on the region and issuing a warning over increased “power projection in the region.” Vietnam, meanwhile, issued a rather ambiguous statement, emphasising the importance of “peace, stability, cooperation, and development” for the region.
The AUKUS pact has put many Southeast Asian countries in an awkward position. Most have extensive and robust economic links with China as well as close security relations with the United States and its partners. Countries in the region have legitimate concerns about becoming pawns in a new superpower struggle, and the issue is set to strain relations further as many maintain a desire to uphold positive relations with both Beijing and Washington. Given this delicate international environment induced by the competition between US and China, regional powers caught in the competition are hesitant to support one over the other publicly.
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