In Geopolitics This Week
The US Facing Difficulties in Hypersonic Missile Race, Forest Fires in Turkey Expose a Lack of Preparedness, China Hints at Policy Change on Russo-Japanese Territorial Disputes, and other stories.
Monday, August 2nd
The US Agrees Arms Sale with Poland; Proposes Deals with Israel, Thailand
The United States successfully negotiated an arms sale with Poland last month, and has since proposed a further two deals with Israel and Thailand. Having reached an agreement with Warsaw over a Polish purchase of 250 US-made M1A2 (SEP3 variant) tanks for $6 million each last month, the US has since confirmed a further two proposed arms sales to both Israel and Thailand. The State Department has greenlighted the sale of 18 CH-53K helicopters to Israel worth up to $3.4 billion, as well as the sale of 300 Javelin missiles to Thailand in a deal worth $83.5 million.
As mentioned in a previous post, Poland has been interested in a purchase of 250 of the most advanced variants of the US-made M1 Abrams tank and the M1A2SEP3 ordered is the most advanced version of the M1 tank. The 66-ton tank is equipped with the Israeli-developed Trophy ADS (active defence system), which has demonstrated a combat effectiveness against ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles) and RPGs (rocket propelled grenades). With agreement over the deal between Washington and Warsaw reached, the delivery of these 250 tanks is set to begin in 2022.
Unlike the deal with Poland, the proposed arms sales to Israel and Thailand are yet to be finalised, but they nonetheless indicate an early stage in the weapons acquisition process for these countries. The deals are currently in the negotiating stage, and the US State Department singing off means that it is now up to lawmakers in Congress to weigh in on the deal.
The US State Department noted that the $3.4 billion sale to Israel would improve Israeli “capability to transport armoured vehicles, personnel, and equipment to support distributed operations.” Whereas the proposed sale of Javelin missiles to Thailand is touted to be the replacement for the Thai Royal Army’s “obsolete” 106mm recoilless rifles and light anti-tank capability. Aside from the introduction of advanced weaponry to Thailand, the deal is also intended to “enhance interoperability with the US during operations and training exercises.”
Read more about this story here.
The US Facing Difficulties in Hypersonic Missile Race
Due to the fact that hypersonic missiles fly on a much flatter trajectory than ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons systems promise to strike targets faster, more precisely, and are generally far more difficult to track and eliminate by missile defences currently fielded by militaries across the world. The United States military, accustomed to holding the technological edge in capabilities since the end of the Cold War, is now in a position where it is playing catch-up to China and Russia, both of which have introduced such weapons systems into active service.
Initial US attempts at developing its own hypersonic missile system have been slow. Currently, the most advanced hypersonic missile project in development — Lockheed-Martin’s AGM183 — is in its initial flight-testing phase, having recently conducted only its second flight test overall.
While the missile has already successfully demonstrated the capability to transmit telemetry and GPS data to ground stations, there are reportedly few signs that the project is ready to attempt a live-fire testing phase. Its first flight test in April ran into problems as the missile failed to release from a B-52. And on a more recent flight test conducted last week, the bomber did manage to release the missile but the engine on the missile itself failed to ignite.
The US Air Force, which is overseeing the development of the AGM183, is now at least seven months behind the flight test schedule the program was initially set, which expected a live-fire test by the end of 2020.
Read more about this story here.
Tuesday, August 3rd
Taliban Contests Laskhar Gah, Capital of Helmand Province
On the 27th of July, 1880, one of the key battles of the Second Anglo-Afghan War took place in Helmand, Afghanistan. Under the leadership of Ayub Khan, the Afghan forces defeated two brigades of British and Indian troops under Brigadier-General George Burrows, marking a unique event in Afghan history. Now, almost one hundred and fifty years after this symbolic victory of Afghan tribesmen in the Battle of Maiwand, another monumental event approaches Helmand province that will define future of Afghanistan.
After days of heavy fighting with Afghan government forces, the Taliban has entered Laskhar Gah, the capital of Helmand province. While the city has yet to fall into the hands of the Taliban forces, a battle still rages in the heart of the city. Taliban fighters are reported to have already taken control of the main radio station, and are now battling over the control of the police station, the main prison, and the governor’s own compound.
Flights out of Bost Airport have been suspended as the Taliban pound the airport with rocket fire. The airport is a critical lifeline for the Afghan government forces, as they are dependent on the NATO coalition forces for the supply of weapons and ammunition. While the government still controls the airport, the situation seems increasingly tenuous for the Afghan government due to the contested nature of the road networks.
To aid the Afghan government forces, the US military has resumed airstrikes in Helmand and elsewhere in an effort to prevent the Taliban from swiftly taking control of several major cities. However, the arrival of US airpower has as little effect now in dislodging the Taliban or halting its rapid advance than it has for the last twenty years.
Read more about this story here.
The Future of the US-Pakistan Relationship
The United States and Pakistan have had a complex relationship. Much of this complexity can be attributed to the US-led military intervention in Afghanistan, and the subsequent deterioration of relations due to Pakistan’s unwillingness to align its policies with the objectives of NATO coalition forces. But as the US leaves Afghanistan, there are voices in the US which call for a realignment of policies in light of the withdrawal.
Two veterans of the US Army believe that it is time for the US to consider how best to achieve a strategically beneficial and sustainable relationship between the countries at a time when the issue of Afghanistan no longer causes discomfort in discussions between Islamabad and Washington. In their view, the course and direction of Pakistan’s strategic decisions going forward will be important to the United States for three key reasons: Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state; its network of relationships is of strategic benefit to any great power; and the country has a rapidly-growing technology sector.
In order to accomplish a more sustainable relationship between the US and Pakistan, they suggest three areas where interests between the states may align. First, a healthy relationship with Pakistan would allow for the effective management of the significant political instability that is sure to emerge from the imminent collapse of the Afghan government forces. Second, frameworks of cooperation in counterterrorism operations would prevent instability to spread across the region. Third, a de-escalation of tensions between Pakistan and India — both nuclear powers — cannot be realised unless Pakistan is involved in the resolution of their many disputes with India.
Read more about this story here.
Wednesday, August 4th
Qatar Seeks to Improve Ties with Egypt
With signs of reconciliation between Qatar and Egypt beginning to appear as early as January of this year, Qatar has confirmed the appointment of a new ambassador to Egypt, setting the stage for better relations with Cairo going forward. The move by the Emir of Qatar brings diplomatic representation to Cairo for the first time since relations between the two countries hit a low point nearly ten years ago.
With the ousting of Mohamed Morsi during the 2013 uprising in Egypt, relations between the two countries turned sour. Under Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Cairo has on several occasions accused Qatari media outlets of providing negative coverage of Egyptian affairs in the region, as well as demanded answers from the Qatari government for harbouring Egyptian opposition figures after they fled Egypt following the downfall of the Morsi. Since Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to power in Egypt, Qatar has also expressed its share of grievance and has fervently opposed Egypt's moves in Libya, the eastern Mediterranean and Africa.
But the hostilities which have dominated the relationship in recent years appear to be winding down. In May this year, the Foreign Minister of Qatar, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, made a visit to Cairo for the first time in over four years. No later than a month after Abdulrahman’s visit, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry made a reciprocal move by visiting Doha with a formal invitation for the Emir of Qatar to visit Egypt. The reconciliation between Cairo and Doha is a signal of shifting allegiances in the Middle East at a time when four distinct centres of power are forming in the region — Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.
Read more about this story here.
Forest Fires in Turkey Expose a Lack of Preparedness
Roughly one hundred large fires are causing devastating economic damage to Turkey's southern coast. Whole towns are burning down, and tourists and locals alike are scrambling to evacuate. The effect of these forest fires have been particularly damaging to Turkey’s lucrative tourist destinations near Bodrum and Antalya on the country’s South coast, with videos showing whole towns aflame.
As the fires still rage, something particularly damaging for the Turkish government has been the (in)ability of the authorities to contain the them. Until a few years ago, Turkey could boast of a firefighting fleet of some 9 Canadair CL-215 firefighting airplanes, which can take in up to 5 tons of water from any body of water and drop the payload onto the fire without the need to make landings. But now, with a real crisis on the government’s hands, at a time when these airplanes would prove to be the best tool to dampen the fires, it seems the Turkish Aeronautical Association has failed to adequately upkeep the firefighting fleet.
The result has been an abysmal response to these devastating forest fires, as well as a delayed call by the Turkish government for assistance from international partners. Turkey has now leased three Russian BE-200 firefighting aircraft for the price of $24 million, with the lease agreed only after the Turkey reportedly chose to reject offers of assistance from Greece. With pressure on the Turkish government mounting, Turkish authorities were sending out calls for help in dealing with the crisis. Turkish calls for assistance have so far been answered by the EU (Spain and Croatia), Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Iran and Azerbaijan.
Read more about this story here.
Thursday, August 5th
China Hints at Policy Change on Russo-Japanese Territorial Disputes
During a recent news conference, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian made a subtle remark which seemed to suggest that China may be open to supporting Russia in its long-standing territorial dispute with Japan over four small islands which lie between the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Japanese Archipelago.
When a journalist (who works for the Global Times) asked Zhao to weigh in on the Russo-Japanese territorial dispute following Japanese protests against the visit of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Zhao echoed China's traditional position on the territorial row: "this is a bilateral issue between Russia and Japan and should be properly handled by the two sides." But he went on to point out that "it is China's consistent belief that the outcomes of the victorious anti-fascist war should be earnestly respected and upheld," referring to the outcome of the Second World War. By specifying that "the results" of the War be respected, China implies it accepts the Russian position.
Nikkei senior staff writer, Katsuji Nakazawa, considers the Chinese move to be an indirect vote of support for Russian claims against Japan, and a response to the deepening of cooperation between Japan and the US over Taiwan. An annual defence white paper published in Japan linked stability in the Taiwan Strait with its own national security, angering Beijing. The 2021 Japanese defence white paper said that "the situation surrounding Taiwan is important for Japan's security and the stability of the international community." Nakazawa considers Beijing's pro-Russia shift over the disputed islands as a warning to Tokyo.
Read more about this story here.
Turkey Has Concerns Over US Plan to Relocate Afghan Refugees
Washington has unveiled a relocation plan for thousands of Afghans who fear reprisals at home for their affiliation with US organisations. The plan would see refugees make the journey themselves and seek asylum in countries such as Turkey, where the plan has raised fears the move could fuel a migration crisis.
Some Ankara officials condemned the US program, saying it will overburden the nation with migrants, which already hosts more than 4 million refugees (mostly from Syria).
Tanju Bilgicm, the spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of Turkey, criticised the plan as “irresponsible,” and claimed that Ankara had not been consulted prior to the announcement. Bilgic went on to say that “Turkey does not have the capacity to bear another refugee crisis for another country.” The communications director for the Turkish presidency, Fahrettin Altun, also expressed his displeasure at the US plan, stating that “Turkey does not, and will not, serve as any country’s waiting room.”
The point of disagreement comes at a time when Washington and Ankara are reportedly discussing a future Turkish role in Afghanistan following the US withdrawal. There is speculation that the role would involve Turkish forces operating a military presence in Kabul’s international airport.
Read more about this story here.
Friday, August 6th
Yemen Unable to Assert Sovereignty Over Perim, Socotra Islands
The island of Perim lies in a strategic position in the Strait of Mandeb at the south entrance of the Red Sea, off the south-west coast of Yemen. The Yemeni islands sit in the middle of one of the busiest shipping routes in the world and have a strategic value beyond just the projection of military power, as a monitoring station here allows for the monitoring of civilian and military vessels alike. Their value was certainly recognised by the Saudi-led coalition forces, who rapidly took the islands at the onset of their war in Yemen.
In May this year, the Saudi-led coalition admitted that they were behind in their work on the construction of a runway on Perim Island — territory which is still considered sovereign Yemeni land. The Yemeni Foreign Minister, Ahmed bin Mubarak, has stressed that there is “no agreement with anyone on the establishment of a military base on Yemeni soil.”
The UAE, as part of the Saudi-led coalition, has also reportedly been pursuing joint Israeli-Emirati projects on the island of Socotra, a territorial outpost of Yemen located 100 kilometres off the Horn of Africa. The UAE’s active role has brought the country a military foothold via the Southern Transitional Council (STS) – which took control of Socotra in 2020. Emirati gains have meant losses for Yemen. Worse still, if the Yemeni authorities are unable to garner international support against the occupying powers or pool together enough resources to retake the islands themselves, the Saudi-led coalition could choose to play for time and maintain the status quo, a highly unfavourable position for Yemen to be in.
Read more about this story here.
The US Determined to Dominate Semiconductor Supply Chains
While the United States is a leader in the manufacture of advanced electronic devices, its dominance of the semiconductor industry relies on what are known as fabless chip firms. Fabless chip makers are producers of semiconductors which design and sell their hardware and chips but do not actually manufacture the necessary silicon wafers.
So when supply chains are disrupted, as has occurred as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the emergent chip shortage has exposes weaknesses in US chip manufacturing capacities. The Biden administration has recognised this reality in a recent assessment which looks at global semiconductor supply chains. Their report acknowledges that while the United States still leads in chip systems and designs, the country lacks the foundries to boost some elements of the supply chains to a satisfactory scale if the US wants to avoid future chip shortages.
Chinese tech companies which rely on the import of semiconductor parts have been faced with US threats to block access to these critical components. The blacklisting of Huawei by the US has opened the South Korean semiconductor materials market for US firms at the expense of Chinese firms, and this market is significant as it ranked marginally second to Taiwan in 2018 for global share of the production of silicon wafers. South Korea and Taiwan make up two of the largest players in the global superconductor and chip markets, so their continued cooperation with the United States will be crucial to fulfil the US goal of future dominance every level of the semiconductor supply chain.
Read more about this story here.