In Geopolitics This Week
BRICS Undergoing Expansion, NATO Prepares for Major Political and Military Expansion, Evolving Dynamics Shape Northeast Africa, and other stories.
BRICS Undergoing Expansion
China is currently holding the rotating Presidency of the BRICS bloc this year, and has used the position to actively support the expansion of the five-member group. Chinese statements have suggested that a consensus has now been reached between the foreign ministers of BRICS member states on an expansion process for BRICS going forward.
Iran has already formally requested to join the BRICS grouping, with Saudi Arabia and Argentina also reportedly interested in joining. An Iranian official confirmed the country’s bid and stated that joining the grouping would result in “added values for both sides.”
Argentina has also been receptive to the prospect of BRICS membership, with Argentinian officials expressing a strong interest in joining the BRICS grouping. President Alberto Fernandez has said that the institutional and economic weight of the BRICS can become a “factor of financial stability,” and urged for the bloc to expand the New Development Bank. No formal request to join has been made by Argentinian officials as of yet, but the current government appears very interested in deepening ties with BRICS members.
The group in its current form represents roughly 41 percent of the global population, accounts for a quarter of global GDP, and 16 percent of world trade. Iran, along with Russia, is a major oil and gas resource holder, while China is the world's top oil importer and one of the largest gas importers. The addition of Iran, Argentina and potentially even Saudi Arabia, would tremendously expand the reach and influence of the BRICS grouping, and could spawn political and financial structures that one day rival the US-led international political economy.
NATO Prepares for Major Political and Military Expansion
NATO’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, has announced a number of moves to strengthen the 30-country military alliance. Stoltenberg said that NATO intends to increase the number of high-readiness combat troops from 40,000 to 300,000 a day ahead of an annual NATO summit taking place in Madrid.
Stoltenberg said he expects NATO’s member states to consider Russia “the most significant threat” to their national security going forward as they contribute more toward a joint military force built to counter the Russian threat. The stated goals of boosting the number of high-readiness combat troops is intended to protect NATO’s eastern flank, specifically the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. However, Stoltenberg failed to commit to a timeline for reaching the required number of troops, how much the initiative would cost to build and maintain, or where exactly those soldiers would be stationed.
Separately, Turkey lifted its veto over the bids of Finland and Sweden to join NATO after the three nations agreed to protect each other’s security by signing a trilateral memorandum. The memorandum, signed by the foreign ministers of Finland, Sweden and Turkey will pave the way for Finland and Sweden to formally join the military alliance.
Turkey’s main objections involved a request for the Nordic countries to stop supporting Kurdish militant groups on their territory and to lift their bans on arms sales to Turkey. The terms of the deal are said to involve Sweden intensifying work on Turkish extradition requests and both Swedish and Finnish law being amended to take on a tougher approach toward Kurdish militant groups.
On the whole, the accession of Finland and Sweden would significantly enhance NATO’s strategic resources and cement the alliance’s dominance across the Baltic Sea, thereby allowing the alliance to threaten Russia’s arctic and Baltic Sea capabilities in the years ahead. Though for now nothing has been decided, as all NATO member states will have to ratify the accession of Finland and Sweden, and Turkey remains willing to reinstate its veto if progress is not made by the Nordic states.
Evolving Dynamics Shape Northeast Africa
Since Ethiopia first announced it was going to build Africa’s largest hydro-power dam on the Blue Nile, the prospect of its completion has loomed over Egypt as an existential threat. In the ten years since, Ethiopia has failed to reach an agreement with Egypt and Sudan on how quickly its reservoir should be filled or on how the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will be operated.
Earlier this week, Sudan accused Ethiopia of capturing and executing Sudanese soldiers captured in Al-Fashaqa, which has prompted an exchange of artillery fire across the disputed region. The dispute over al-Fashaqa, which lies within Sudan’s international borders but is settled by Ethiopian farmers and militias, has escalated in recent years in tandem with a diplomatic spat over Ethiopia’s construction of the GERD.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has now decided to weigh in on the dam issue as well, and has officially declared its support for Egypt’s position in the GERD crisis by publicly backing all measures taken by Cairo to protect its national security. The Saudi position was voiced in a joint statement following a meeting between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. For Cairo, the Saudi support is a welcome development after efforts to get the United Arab Emirates’ to advocate Egypt’s position have so far failed.
Egyptian estimates have indicated a rise in the level of water in the GERD’s lake as Addis Ababa prepares to start the third phase of filling the dam’s reservoir during the upcoming rainy season. Cairo and Khartoum have repeatedly emphasized they reject all unilateral filling measures at the GERD before a legally binding agreement is reached that achieves the three countries’ common interests. Ethiopian officials have recently stated that the next filling phase will take place in August and September.