In Geopolitics This Week
Tensions over Taiwan Highlight Need for Military Hotline, Assaults on Al-Aqsa Mosque Threaten Stability in the Middle East, Kurdistan and Iraq Reach Agreement on Oil Exports, and other stories.
Tensions over Taiwan Highlight Need for Military Hotline
Tensions between the United States and China have been escalating. There are growing concerns over the lack of direct communication between their military commands. The US is committed to increasing military exercises in the Indo-Pacific region, which could potentially lead to serious international incidents in volatile areas like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Efforts to establish a reliable military-to-military hotline have failed, partly because Beijing sees such mechanisms as potentially legitimizing the presence of US military vessels and aircraft near China's borders.
The Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-Wen met with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to demonstrate strong support for Taiwan and deter China from invading the territory. However, there is concern that this meeting may have the opposite effect and push the US closer to recognizing Taiwan's independence, ultimately leading to a direct US-China military crisis or conflict over Taiwan. The Pentagon recently gained the authority to transfer arms to Taiwan, with Congress granting $3 billion in total annual military aid to Taiwan. However, Congress did not approve funding for those authorities in its FY23 spending bill. Senior Pentagon officials are now calling on congressional appropriators to allocate funding required to begin using Taiwan military aid authorities.
China's response to a meeting between high-ranking US and Taiwanese officials has been relatively modest, but the trajectory of China-U.S. and China-Taiwan relations remains escalatory. This will perpetuate the risk of cross-strait incidents, pose a pervasive threat of Chinese military coercion against Taiwan, and increase constraints on U.S.-China trade ties. Tsai's recent trip to California was potentially the most high-profile visit by a Taiwanese president to the US since the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. China has conducted limited military activities around Taiwan in response to the McCarthy meeting, including a Taiwan Strait patrol and a naval voyage east of Taiwan.
Assaults on Al-Aqsa Mosque Threaten Stability in the Middle East
Recent events in the Middle East have escalated tensions, particularly events in Palestine. The situation there has been volatile for over a year, with violent raids by Israeli security forces in Palestinian towns and villages met with continued armed Palestinian resistance. The most recent escalation was sparked by attacks on worshippers at Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque, leading to rocket attacks on Israel from Lebanon. The UN peacekeeping force has called for restraint to avoid further escalation, but both Israel and Palestine claim sovereignty over Jerusalem.
The situation is concerning, as it could trigger a larger conflict in the region. Hamas is attempting to take a measured response, warning Israel against further raids on Al-Aqsa. However, if Israel's brutal violence against worshippers continues, Hamas may find itself under pressure to act decisively. On April 6, more than 30 rockets were fired from southern Lebanon into northern Israel, leading to the largest exchange of cross-border fire since the 2006 war between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The violence has sparked international condemnation of Israel, and riots have broken out in Arab communities across Israel and the West Bank.
The recent attacks and unrest coincide with the religious holidays of Passover, Ramadan, and Easter, which is a traditionally tense time of year in Israel, and especially Jerusalem. This year, a group of ultranationalist Israelis attempted to carry out an animal sacrifice at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, sparking concerns that the Israeli government might support such groups. Israel will likely seek only symbolic retaliation to the rocket attacks from Lebanon to avoid triggering another major war. However, unrest in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and across Israel will likely ebb and flow, leading to potential escalation between Israel and regional militants.
Kurdistan and Iraq Reach Agreement on Oil Exports
Last week, Turkey halted crude oil exports from the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq following a ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce that favoured Iraq against Turkey. However, after a series of negotiations, officials from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and federal government reached an initial agreement to restart exports, marking a significant step towards resolving the long-standing legal battle between the two parties. While tensions remain high, there is hope that the agreement will be approved by both Turkey and the Iraqi Parliament.
This agreement comes at a crucial time, as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other major oil exporters have announced a sharp reduction in their production from May, which has sent global energy prices up. For Iraq, oil exports are a key revenue source for both the federal and regional governments, and their management has been a sensitive topic in its international relations. The government of Iraq is betting on earning around $70 per barrel in its budget calculations for the next three years and has been irritated to see the autonomous region go it alone by exporting its oil via Turkey.
The agreement is described as temporary, and it signals the end of independent oil exports by the Kurdish regional government, marking a clear limit to its autonomy. The Kurdistan government sees Baghdad as trying to profit from the region's resources while dragging its feet on paying the salaries of Kurdish civil servants and other funds for its regional public sector. This agreement presents an opportunity for Baghdad to be involved in Iraqi Kurdistan's oil sector and should allow Kurdistan to accrue higher revenues in the future.