In Geopolitics This Week
OPEC+ Further Tightens Oil Supply, Turkey's Strategic Exports to Russia Test NATO Alliance, Fragile Calm Shattered in Gaza as Ceasefire Collapses, and other stories.
OPEC+ Further Tightens Oil Supply
OPEC+ this week announced a decision to slash oil production by nearly 2 million barrels per day from 2024. Falling demand triggered by a slowing Chinese economy as well as a strong dollar have severely pressured prices over recent months. In response, the bloc is attempting to forcibly stabilize markets by significantly tightening supply again through national-level voluntary curbs.
Rather than an official target, the ad hoc reductions emerged via individual pledges from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, and others. The public statements betray fractures between rival interests underneath superficial consensus, even as the grouping seeks decisive market reassurance. Beyond dissenting members like Angola resisting quotas, the absence of an enforcement mechanism gives each member room for defiance. This risks rendering the set targets merely aspirational without a compliance monitoring mechanism, especially if economic impacts spur further resistance to cuts.
Amid the background turbulence between economic realities eroding oil’s centrality and the bloc’s attempts at market management, Brazil concurrently announced its upcoming accession to OPEC+ next year. The declaration carries prestige as the rising South American power gains an insider seat at important tables shaping 21st century global energy affairs. The move also represents recognition of Brazil's remarkable growth in recent years — already producing nearly 4 million barrels every day, with national plans aiming to expand output by another one-third before this decade concludes.
It cements Brazil’s status after the nation flipped from a net importer to exporter. For now exempt from any enforceable production cuts, Brazil still faces risks that future quota demands could ignite severe domestic backlash. This is especially likely given that Petrobras must balance shareholder returns with political pressure for affordable supplies as a pillar of national wealth. Renewed investment therefore depends on ensuring aligned OPEC+ and Brazil policy priorities down the line.
Turkey's Strategic Exports to Russia Test NATO Alliance
Turkey has drastically increased exports this year of key items critically enabling Russia's military capabilities, undercutting NATO attempts to choke Moscow's supply chains. Turkish sales of sensitive military items surged over 450% through September 2022 compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, Turkey's imports of those same materials from G7 states jumped 60%, suggesting large-scale intermediary re-exporting to circumvent sanctions against Russia.
As trade flows through Turkey rapidly grow, the country has emerged as an indispensable sanctions evasion pipeline, filling gaps in Russia’s military-industrial supply chains. Advanced electronics, sensors, and processors travel through Turkish trade networks before eventually reaching Russian defence production lines to sustain weapons systems for the war in Ukraine.
This week, officials from Turkey and the United States met to confront a number of challenges in the bilateral relationship. Namely, that of Turkey's support for Hamas, the ratification of Sweden's NATO bid, and Ankara's extensive sanctions-busting activities. These are the key areas where the national security priorities of both powers clash, jeopardizing NATO cohesion. But with profits flooding into Turkey, Turkish conglomerates are benefitting from the intermediary role. As such, significant commercial interests pose formidable roadblocks to any rapid course correction by Ankara.
As Turkish President Erdoğan delicately balances between Western and Russian power poles, his government aims to alleviate acute US and EU tensions without forfeiting the economic windfall from its middleman status. Turkey's strategic cooperation either enabling or curbing the extensive sanctions-violating commerce with Russia could prove pivotal in averting or catalysing heightened escalations between rival NATO and Russian power blocs. Therefore, Erdoğan's decisions amid these tensions carry defining importance for the war in Ukraine.
Fragile Calm Shattered in Gaza as Ceasefire Collapses
The brief Israel-Hamas ceasefire expired after limited renewals, swiftly unravelling coordinated relief efforts. The breakdown means a return of intensive Israeli bombardment across Gaza, with aims to forcibly reshape asymmetrical conflict dynamics after months of bloody attrition. Seeking capitulation, the Israeli escalation is in defiance of external calls for de-escalation.
Mediators prolonged the initial bare-bones truces through staged aid transfers, infrastructure repairs, economic respite and detainee exchanges — narrowly preventing societal collapse in devastated border zones. Qatar and Egypt's efforts fostered incremental trust-building as a temporary calm set in. But absent substantive parallel progress resolving root disputes stoking generations of cyclical based violence, the minimalist cooperation deal merely delayed rather than prevented renewed clashes once temporary exhaustion waned.
The swift breakdown of the truce has proven damaging for Israel as partnerships fray over its disproportionate use of force in Gaza. Bitter allegations from Israeli leaders toward Spain and Belgium over criticism of civilian casualties have sparked a diplomatic rift with key European allies. While European states condemn Hamas’ indiscriminate attacks on Israeli citizens, disagreements are now erupting over accountability in the worsening humanitarian crisis. Deteriorating ties obstruct collaborative ceasefire efforts and diplomacy precisely when international alignment matters most.
This absence of political will or agency leaves rampant violence. Israel retains unwavering US military support and protective partnerships across aligned regimes, even while clashing with some of its European allies over Gaza. Meanwhile, US naval interceptions continue to deny ascendant regional rivals, seemingly emboldened to exploit operational distractions amid persistent fighting. Gaza's enduring crisis further fans flames between the great powers in surrounding theatres. Regional multipolarity compounds risks of an uncontrolled escalation as conflicts begin to enmesh.
With trust-cultivating talks deemed exhausted and abruptly abandoned this week, continued violence will persist without resolving core grievances around land, refugees, human security and resource control. For Israel, violence retains its advantage absent any assertive involvement from outside powers.