In Geopolitics This Week
Turkey Makes First Delivery of Armed Drones to Ukraine, US-China Meeting Ends in Stalemate, Russia Forges a New Strategy with More Modest Goals in Central Asia, and other stories.
Monday, July 26th
Turkey Makes First Delivery of Armed Drones to Ukraine
Ukraine has confirmed that the Ukrainian Navy has accepted the delivery of its first Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2 drone. After completing the appropriate tests for operational readiness, the drone will be deployed with the 10th Naval Aviation Brigade in Mykolaiv. The delivery is part of a $69 million contract signed in 2019 to deliver six of these TB2 drones to Ukraine.
Much to the chagrin of Russia, Turkey and Ukraine have worked to strengthened their military relations recently. The ties provide an eager customer to Turkey’s sprawling arms production, while Ukraine is able to deploy advanced weaponry against Russian-backed separatists. Another avenue of cooperation has been evident in the US-backed Three Seas Initiative, which aims to economically isolate the economies of Eastern European countries from Russia by creating a north-south economic axis running from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea.
The Bayraktar TB2 is a medium-altitude long-endurance drone capable of surveillance and reconnaissance tasks as well as combat missions using guided missiles. The drone can maintain continuous flight for up to 27 hours and has a maximum take-off weight of 650 kilograms. The successful delivery of the first such drone to Ukraine follows another recent victory for Turkish arms exporters as Poland agreed to purchase some 24 of these Bayraktar drones.
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Brazil’s Choice in the US-China Competition
From the perspective of US policymakers, Latin America has already become a staging ground for the wider confrontation with China. While the US was pouring its resources into over two decades of costly interventions in the Middle East, China has been cultivating economic ties with countries in South America, a region Washington considers its own neighbourhood.
Throughout this time, Washington assigned a peripheral importance to Latin American countries, and this posture has allowed China to become the main trading partner of Brazil and Argentina — the two largest economies in South America. China is now the main importer of eleven of Brazil’s fifteen most exported commodities. And while the US provides a larger amount in foreign direct investments to Brazil, China has far surpassed the US in infrastructure investments. Trade and investment ties between Brazil and China expose just how deep the relationship has grown, with much of Brazil’s infrastructure development conducted by Chinese companies.
As competition with China increases, the US has applied pressure to Brazil, requesting partners disavow ties with Beijing in favour of those with Washington in what amounts to a binary decision. A clear example of this was Washington’s unrelenting pressure on Brazil and other countries to reject Huawei as a candidate in the 5G network bidding process. But such a move for Brazil would ruin relations with Beijing and would be detrimental to the economic interests of Brazil, so the demands of Washington are difficult for Brazilian policymakers to carry out.
The best strategy for Brazil going forward would involve a balanced relationship with both the United States and China, but how that is to be achieved is difficult to say. Regardless, Brazil and other Latin American countries will feel increasingly pressured to choose between Washington and Beijing.
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Tuesday, July 27th
Saudi-Emirati National Interests Diverging
Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have, since the 1970s, been positive and cooperative as they have recognised areas of mutual interest. Their interests have particularly aligned in pursuing a stable oil market, checking Iraqi and Iranian expansionism, and striving to keep the United States engaged in the region. More recently, ties between the two countries have deepened ever since the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011, culminating in their joint military intervention in Yemen.
But now some suggest that the closeness which dominated the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE for so long may soon be ending. In Yemen, for instance, the UAE was not willing to expend the troops or treasure necessary to fully defeat the Houthis — alarming the Saudis who saw their coalition falling apart. Points of alignment too have withered away, with some of the interests which once unified the two — such as opposition towards the Muslim Brotherhood or fear of revolutionary uprisings at home — now occupying a less significant role in regional politics.
And there are considerable differences emerging in the road ahead. One such example of diverge in policy is each country’s stance toward Israel. While the UAE has chosen to normalise ties with Israel, Saudi Arabia has not. In Yemen too there are points of conflict, as the war drags on toward a stalemate, relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia could turn for the worse as each increasingly seeks different outcomes. And with both oil-rich countries’ critical industries having been deeply affected by the ongoing pandemic, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi may soon be competing against each other economically as well.
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US-China Meeting Ends in Stalemate
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman has held a meeting with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and vice-foreign minister Xie Feng. The meeting is reported to have ended with both sides sticking to their hard-line positions on the most divisive issues troubling the relationship. These high-level talks between US and Chinese diplomats may have illustrated that sharp differences remain between the sides, but a tone which was somewhat less contentious than at their last meeting is a positive signal going forward.
Before the meeting took place, both sides set the stage with rhetorical statements alluding to their respective positions. China’s foreign minister warned that the US wants to “to exert pressure on other countries by virtue of its own strength, thinking that it is superior to others,” and that Beijing could provide for the US a “tutorial” on how to treat other nations equally. Whereas US officials laid out their position regarding relations with China going forward as “collaborative where it can be, competitive where it should be, and adversarial where it must be.”
After the meeting, Sherman said that as part of the discussions she spoke about the “the United States’ commitment to healthy competition, protecting human rights and democratic values, and strengthening the rules-based international order that benefits us all.” For China, Wang is said to have passed on to Sherman a list of Chinese wishes: the United States must not challenge China’s model of governance; must not interfere in China’s development; and must not violate China’s sovereignty or harm its territorial integrity.
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Wednesday, July 28th
Egypt Postpones Nuclear Plant Project with Russia
Egypt has announced a temporary halt of the El-Dabaa nuclear power plant project for a period of two years. Cairo had previously signed a contract with Rosatom, the Russian nuclear energy company, which would see to the construction of a 4.8 gigawatt nuclear plant. Under the deal, 85% of the total cost of the project ($30 billion) was to be financed via a $25 billion Russian loan.
Statements made by Karim al-Adham, the spokesperson for the Egyptian Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority, reasoned that the two-year postponement of the project was due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Adham also said that construction works will be halted until regulators issue licenses after mid-2021. The delay means that the El-Dabaa nuclear plant will not be completed before the year 2030. But the sudden need for the issuance of licenses on an ongoing project indicates that the Egyptian move may be linked to other factors.
As Egypt is still embroiled in a bitter feud with neighbouring Ethiopia, the fact that Ethiopia and Russia signed a military cooperation agreement early this month is unlikely to have gone unnoticed in Cairo. Moscow and Cairo may even be playing a game of tit-for-tat, with Cairo taking part in the NATO-organised Sea Breeze naval exercises in the Black near the disputed Crimean Peninsula. In light of Egypt’s participation in these US-led naval exercises, Russia may have intended to send a strong signal to Cairo by signing a military deal with its rival Ethiopia.
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Taliban Courts International Partners Parallel to Doha Talks
A negotiated settlement seems to be the only way for the Afghan government to survive without the hard power of NATO going forward. While talks between the Afghan government and Taliban began last September, multiple meetings since then have failed to deliver an agreement between the sides. In the midst of negotiations, Taliban forces continued to make military gains across Afghanistan.
With talks under the Doha format seeing little progress, it seems that the Taliban are making diplomatic rounds in parallel to the Doha negotiation structure, with their diplomats meeting high ranking officials from the region in recent weeks. Interestingly, the Taliban’s chief negotiator Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi just two days after US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman was in China for talks.
Wang apparently assured Baradar that Beijing views the Afghan Taliban as an “important military and political force in Afghanistan,” which is “expected to play an important role in the country’s peace, reconciliation and reconstruction process.” Barandar had positive assurances for Wang too, stating that the Taliban would not allow foreign forces to use Afghan territory in order to “engage in acts detrimental to China.” And the high-level meeting with Beijing was not the only high-profile player sought out by the Taliban in recent weeks. Earlier this month, the Taliban sent a delegation to Moscow which saw a similar exchange of assurances.
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Thursday, July 29th
Saudi Arabia Working to Improve Ties with Oman
A recent visit to Saudi Arabia by Haitham bin Tariq, the Sultan of Oman, signals that Saudi Arabia and Oman are taking steps to improving mutual relations. Recently, relations between the countries were complicated by a few points of contention, namely issues such as Oman’s relationship with Iran and the manner of the Saudi campaign in Yemen. That the meeting is the first visit abroad by Oman’s new Sultan Haitham bin Tariq is an indication that the bilateral relationship is important to Muscat.
One factor influencing the drive to improve bilateral relations on both sides is the similar economic challenges that both countries are facing. Their economic situation has experienced a drastic downturn due to the ongoing pandemic, further compounded by the fall in oil prices following widespread travel restrictions. As both economies are heavily reliant on hydrocarbon resources, both Riyadh and Muscat understand that regional diversification away from oil and into private sector enterprises will be necessary in order to secure the long-term survival of both states. In this regard, both states interests’ overlap for the foreseeable future.
Of the two, Oman is in a far worse economic situation, and this high-level visit suggests that boosting trade and attracting investment from Saudi Arabia is a top priority for leaders in Muscat. Deeper economic integration between the two countries will help Oman make better use of its unique position on the Arabian Peninsula with investments in trade infrastructure which serves the efficient transport of goods both on land and on sea.
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Iranian Statements Point to Continued Disagreements on JCPA
In a recent meeting of the Iranian Cabinet, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei evaluated the outgoing President Rouhani’s performance, and claimed that it was an “uneven” administration. Khamenei, in communicating guidance for Iranian government going forward, also said that the domestic affairs of Iran cannot be “conditional on the West.”
Remarking on the current negotiations over the reestablishment of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) agreement in Vienna, Khamenei noted that the United States has so far acted “completely cowardly and maliciously” and that the US “stood firm on their stubborn positions.” Khamenei revealed that a particular point of disagreement in the negotiations is that Washington wants a clause in the agreement requiring Iran to enter negotiations over its missile programs.
The United States is also said to have refused the opportunity to exit the nuclear deal again if it so wished. The JCPA negotiations are set to resume on the same day that the new Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, takes his office.
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Friday, July 30th
US Naval Strategy for Autonomous Vehicles
In April this year, the US Navy kicked off its first exercise utilising both manned and unmanned systems in the air and the sea simultaneously. The exercise tested the use of a destroyer as a mothership for unmanned platforms, which included the Sea Hunter and Sea Hawk, the MQ-8B Fire Scout UAV, the MQ-9 Sea Guardian UAV, various unmanned underwater vehicles, as well as a project called Super Swarm, which is researching swarm drone technologies.
With the coming of age of many unmanned technologies, the US Navy’s research division has released a strategy for their development and integration. The strategy calls for large numbers of smaller autonomous systems to complement traditional manned assets, which the navy sees as the path forward to leveraging the strengths of its fleet. The use of intelligent machines, which can be adapted to function in different environments as sensors and network nodes, will serve as a particularly useful capability able to be deployed where the costs to the presence of manned systems is too great.
On the whole, the strategy asserts that the Navy’s fleets of the future, operating swarms of autonomous systems, will be able to maintain superiority in “peacetime and wartime operations.” However, the report also notes that too drastic an emphasis on autonomous systems may be detrimental to deterrence strategies, as these advanced systems have not yet been proven to effectively deny an adversary.
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Russia Forges a New Strategy with More Modest Goals in Central Asia
Central Asia is a critical region for Moscow. The countries which occupy this geographic space form a buffer separating Russia from its nearest Asian threats. Especially important in this regard is Kazakhstan, which at its border with Russia possesses no natural barriers separating the two countries, meaning instability here would have a real danger of spilling into Russia. With significant infrastructure, transport and trade links running along this border linking Moscow with the Far East, security imperatives take centre stage in policy calculations for the Russian state.
Given the importance of this region to Russian stability, there are indications that Russia indents to initiate a shift in its approach to the region, one that is more comprehensive of new realities. One such signal is a recent meeting of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Leaders from the countries which make up the EAEU — Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, together with other observer states — met in April this year in the city of Kazan, Russia. Facing the prospect of rising competition in Central Asia from China and other actors, and with diminished political and economic power with which to impose its will, Moscow is trying to build up the EAEU to be a more coherent institution in regional affairs.
If the new approach works, Russia will be able to increase its influence in regional affairs with little cost. To China, which is already seeking a stable environment in the region for its Belt and Road Initiative, Russian moves at economically integrating the region will likely be welcomed. The countries of Central Asia may also be interested in reducing trade and investment barriers through a unified economic space, lowering the costs of transportation in a region in dire need of such investments. But such a strategy means that Russia will have to settle for a competitive environment where influence is earned, not given. The dominance once enjoyed over the region by the Soviet Union is an unrealistic outcome to seek, but if Moscow has patience, it may yet remain as the dominant power here in the medium-term.
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