In Geopolitics This Week
India Signs Bilateral Deals in Defence & Trade with Russia, Indonesian Persistence at Strategic Autonomy, End of US-led Combat Operations in Iraq, and other stories.
Monday, December 6th
India Signs Bilateral Deals in Defence & Trade with Russia
At a summit in New Delhi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin as both leaders exchanged pleasantries and signed a slew of bilateral defence agreements which will see them extend cooperation for the next ten years. With the agenda firmly focused around political and defence issues, the meeting between Modi and Putin came hours after a strategic dialogue was held to discuss reinforcing ties between the foreign and defence ministers of the two countries. India and Russia have a history of close ties and the relationship is targeting $30bn in bilateral trade by the end of 2025.
The reported 28 deals signed between India and Russia include a joint venture called Indo-Russian Rifles, which will produce roughly 600,000 Kalashnikov AK-203 assault rifles for the Indian armed forces over the next 10 years. Indian officials have stated that the production of these rifles will take place at a factory in Uttar Pradesh, and that the plant would begin production within months. Moreover, the two countries signed agreements on steel, shipbuilding, coal and energy, and decided to extend their military technology cooperation agreements for a decade. On current deals, both leaders made statements of appraisal for the Russian delivery of S-400 surface-to-air missile systems to India despite the threat of US sanctions.
The leadership in both capitals must contend with the changing nature of complex regional dynamics. As New Delhi and Beijing continue to bolster their military capabilities, skirmishes on the disputed border they share have led to a months-long military standoff. Seeking security against Beijing, New Delhi is increasingly turning to Washington while Beijing strengthens its ties with Russia. There has been speculation that as a result of this regional realignment, the India-Russia relationship may be fraying. But that doesn’t appear to be the case, as both Moscow and New Delhi have chosen to reinforce mutual ties, and it appears the two countries will continue their ‘privileged’ relationship in the years ahead despite rapidly-changing regional dynamics.
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Largest Arms Sellers See Another Year of Boosted Sales
A study conducted by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has found that despite a global economic contraction, weapons sales for the largest weapons developers across the globe have increased by 1.3 percent in comparison to the previous year. The 100 largest companies operating in the sales of arms and military services totalled $531 billion in 2020, illustrating a continuation of a trend seen in recent years as the report marks the sixth consecutive year of growth in arms sales.
The report indicates that the industry giants have been shielded from the economic fallout affecting other industries by sustained government demand for military goods and services as global arms sales have seen an increase of 17 percent since 2015. The report finds that the top defence companies based in the United States, China, the UK, Russia, France, Germany, Israel and Japan account for the vast majority of global arms sales in the year 2020.
Companies operating in the United States continue to represent the largest share of defence companies ranked in the Top 100. Altogether, the 41 US companies in the list were responsible for $285 billion in yearly arms sales, representing an increase of 1.9 percent when compared with 2019, and made up 54 percent of the entire list’s total arms sales. Below the US was China, with five Chinese companies appearing in the list accumulating combined arms sales of $66.8 billion in 2020. This is a 1.5 percent increase on the previous year, and China’s defence firms accounted for 13 percent of total in 2020. The seven UK companies conducted arms sales in the value of $37.5 billion, a rise of 6.2 percent compared with 2019. The nine Russian companies listed amounted to a total of $26.4 billion in 2020, suffering sharp drops from the previous year as Russian arms sales fell by 6.5 percent from the $28.2 billion recorded in 2019.
In the European Union, French arms sales in 2020 amounted to $24.7 billion, with its six listed companies accounting for 4.7 percent of total arms sales. Germany saw arms sales by its four leading defence firms increase by 1.3 percent to $8.9 billion in 2020, which amounted to 1.7 percent of the total arms sales. A total of 26 European defence companies appear in the top 100 list, together accounting for $109 billion in arms sales, seeing an increase of 1.0 percent on the previous year, and making up 21 percent of the total. The arms sales of companies in the list based outside the US, China, UK, Russia and Europe totalled $43.1 billion in 2020, which is an increase of 3.4 percent from the previous year, and represents 8.1 per cent of the total arms sales in the list.
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Tuesday, December 7th
Saudi Arabia Requests More Patriot Missiles from the United States
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has reportedly made a plea to the United States and other allies requesting they provide more Patriot interceptor missiles amidst a growing shortage. The request comes as the Saudi-led coalition has initiated an offensive against rebel forces in Yemen, accelerating airstrikes in support of ground units advancing on the west coast as well as the province of Marib. At the same time, Saudi infrastructure at home is being threatened by drone and missile attacks.
The sudden sense of insecurity brought on by recent attacks on its capital and infrastructure elsewhere has led Saudi Arabia to request help from its Gulf and European allies, as well as from the US. Saudi vulnerabilities are being exposed at home as the capital Riyadh is said to have come under missile fire. The optics of Saudi dominance amidst an offensive in Yemen are already crumbling as the urgent request for over a hundred Patriot missile illustrates the pressure that Houthi rebels have been able to exert on the Kingdom’s defences. And with the United States repositioning its assets to other parts of the region, Saudi Arabia finds itself in desperate need of the same missiles which have long secured the Kingdom from missile and drone attacks.
In Yemen, Saudi-led forces launched a fierce offensive against the Houthis in the port city of Mocha, retaking several adjacent towns over the last two weeks. Cabinet of Yemen forces have led the offensive with the help of coalition airstrikes, and are said to have also made gains in Marib province, thereby “reclaiming important and strategic positions,” according to a Saudi military spokesperson. In response to the recent drone and missile attacks on Saudi territory by rebel forces, the coalition said it had bombed multiple military targets in Sanaa. While the US used to provide logistical and intelligence support to the Saudi-led campaign, the Biden administration has publicly withdrawn support for Saudi-led offensive operations. Nevertheless, the administration has made clear it continues to support the kingdom’s defence, so the request for the Patriot missiles is likely to be answered in Washington.
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Talks Take Place Between Biden & Putin
US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks which lasted for about two hours in what had been expected to be a highly consequential meeting amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Going into the discussions, both sides had made public their contrasting positions, with Russia demanding legal guarantees that NATO expansion eastward would cease, and the United States threatening harsh economic sanctions in case of a Russian offensive while stopping short of signalling direct US involvement if such an attack takes place. Now, according to public statements released following the meeting, there were few commitments or concessions made between Biden and Putin toward a solution to the crisis.
During the video call, both presidents recalled the alliance between the two countries during World War II and expressed hope that the historical alliance could serve as an example for working together on today's realities. Putin and Biden highlighted that cooperation between Moscow and Washington is at an "unsatisfactory" level, and recognized that recent tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions have been particularly damaging in this regard. But regarding Ukraine, both seemingly stuck to their initial positions as neither committed to any NATO guarantees. Biden reiterated that the US and its allies would respond with strong economic sanctions in the event of a military escalation. For his part, Putin asked to the US president to formulate legally binding security assurances which would guarantee a stop to NATO expansion eastward.
Both prior to, and following, his call with Putin, Biden spoke with leaders from the UK, France, Germany and Italy to share details of the conversations, while US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden and Zelensky will talk about a potential diplomatic resolution with Russia. Another possible talking point in any negotiations between Russia and Washington could be the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Moments after the meeting concluded, US House and Senate leaders released an amended National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2022 which dropped anti-Russian provisions present in a previous version of the bill. The bill no longer includes new sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and waives certain other sanctions which were previously a part of the bill.
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Wednesday, December 8th
Indonesian Persistence at Strategic Autonomy
In the coming years, Indonesia has the potential to sway the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific. It is the largest archipelagic country in the world and sits adjacent to the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Indonesia’s growing economic power, regional political capital, and control over strategic sea lanes mean that the country is likely to play an influential role in an era of US-China competition. Yet historically, Indonesia has maintained a clear focus on strategic autonomy even while regional power rivalries intensify matters. To maintain that autonomy, the leadership in Jakarta embraces a doctrine of non-alignment, striking a flexible and pragmatic approach toward both Beijing and Washington.
Successive Indonesian governments have avoided engaging with great powers in ways that could undermine domestic legitimacy. In general, the leadership in Jakarta tends to avoid engagement with a great power so as not to limit how it defines and defends its own interests, and in this regard, Indonesia’s idea of strategic autonomy has seen success, as was the case when the country gained US recognition of Indonesia’s sovereignty over West Papua by threatening to align with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In this way a condition of limited rivalry between China and the United States allows Indonesia to play both great powers off each other, and thereby reap economic and political benefits in the process.
And for now, Indonesia is attracting some benefits via such a policy, as both Beijing and Washington try to tip the balance of power in their increasingly confrontational competition. China has fostered deep economic ties by investing in remote regions of Indonesia, while also applying pressure to Jakarta via assertive actions undertaken in Indonesia’s Natuna islands exclusive economic zone. To counter China’s influence over Indonesia, the United States has increased defence cooperation with Jakarta, demonstrated recently by the largest joint military exercises ever held between Indonesia and the United States in August. In this way, in the near-term at least, Jakarta extracts benefits from a limited rivalry between great powers, which for the moment, seems a desirable state of affairs for Indonesia.
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The Arctic Could Prove Lucrative to Shipping
Climate models project dramatic ice reductions in the Arctic. The planet’s fast-warming climate will bring new opportunities for international transportation networks and offer shorter maritime navigation distances. In particular, the opening of Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) promises to drastically reduce shipping costs between Europe and Asia, with significant investments already made toward developing the route. But with the route still frozen for most of the year, for the NSR to offer reduced costs to global shipping will require widespread investments in icebreaker vessels and port infrastructure.
Arctic shipping is facilitated by various vessels and icebreakers, without which navigating between Europe and Asia through the Arctic Circle would not be possible. Due to the complexities of operating in the harsh environments of the Arctic, consistent shipping here needs to be supported by a system of hubs. And this is problematic in the Arctic. The region is scarce and harsh, and it has very little infrastructure offering refuge, port depth, marine salvage, reception facilities, towing services, or other capacities which attract shipping. The lack of developed port infrastructure raises the level of risk associated with transiting a particular waterway, which — together with the lack of year-round access — represent barriers to the NSR becoming a major transit route for international trade.
Nevertheless, Russia has spotted opportunities for the NSR, and has designated the entire Russian Arctic as a “Free Trade Zone” under Russian national law, covering an area almost 5 million square kilometres in size. Local Arctic residents will seemingly enjoy tax benefits and smoother administrative procedures as Russia seeks to attract investments into rail infrastructure for the region. While the importance of the Arctic zone to the Russian economy is growing, occupying a share of Russian GDP close to 10 percent, the region suffers from severe under-population. The vast Arctic region contains less than 1.5 percent of the entire Russian population, and trending toward a continued decline in human capital in the years ahead.
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Thursday, December 9th
Maximum Pressure has Failed to Overthrow Maduro
US sanctions against Venezuela were seriously escalated by the Obama administration, which called out Caracas as an “extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.” When Trump came to power, his administration adjusted the sanctions regime to one driven by a policy of maximum pressure: cutting oil-rich Venezuela off from the international energy market its economy depends on and throwing support behind a parallel Venezuelan government. Yet despite tough sanctions and unrest, enduring pressure from the US has failed to trigger regime change or bring the Maduro government to its knees.
Washington’s faith in strict sanctions has not only failed to bring about desired outcomes in Venezuela, but may also have contributed to a range of undesirable side effects harmful to US interests in Latin America. Maduro’s popularity seems to have grown and his party — the United Socialist Party of Venezuela — recently made firm gains in regional elections as his coalition won 20 of the 23 governorships available, and now even holds the mayoralty of Caracas. This comes after Maduro was able to secure control of 256 of the Venezuela’s National Assembly’s 277 seats during elections last year, which meant that the former interim President of the Venezuela National Assembly, Juan Guaido, lost his regional and law-making seats. Guaido had been a favourite of the United States and some of its allies to lead opposition to Maduro, but now seems to have fallen out of favour as even the EU no longer recognizes him in any official capacity.
The near-collapse of Venezuela’s economy due to harsh US sanctions has done little if anything to erode Maduro’s grip on power. Now, some economists estimate that Venezuela’s economy will achieve roughly 5 percent growth this year. If the country returns to consistent economic growth, Maduro’s position will prove an increasingly difficult one to topple. Maduro has been extremely successful in this regard, surviving immense political and economic pressures from the US by obtaining considerable support from Russia, China, Iran and Cuba. And this is perhaps the most unfavourable outcome in Venezuela for Washington: attracting Russia, China, and Iran to a region traditionally dominated by the United States has led to influential adversaries working against Washington’s interests closer to home.
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Energy Competition in the Eastern Mediterranean
Discoveries made over the last two decades in the Eastern Mediterranean’s Levant Basin have confirmed that the region’s continental shelf contains rich gas reserves. The key fields with considerable reserves are off the coasts of Egypt, Israel, and Cyprus, and development has been swiftly launched on several fields by several major energy companies. Yet on the whole, this process has been slow due to multiple disagreements between countries in the region in the absence of clearly demarcated maritime borders. Nevertheless, as more energy projects approach completion, countries which have for long imported gas and oil may soon see domestic energy production rise.
While some states in the Eastern Mediterranean have attempted to form alliances around the energy sector, Turkey has remained on the side-lines as it seeks to forge a unilateral foreign policy toward the matter. The conflicting aims of Turkey on the one hand and Israel, Egypt, Cyprus and Greece on the other increasingly contribute to the militarization of the Eastern Mediterranean. The scramble to exploit the energy potential has laid bare rifts in Europe as well, with Italy deepening ties with Turkey while France builds up its military cooperation with Greece to counter Turkey’s influence. As this rush over energy continues, the issue overlaps with other, more established regional issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Greek-Turkish territorial disputes and the Cyprus question, all complicating relations between capitals in the region.
But with no honest broker ready and willing to solve the many intractable issues which dominate energy politics in the Eastern Mediterranean, the risk of a miscalculation rises. Exacerbating mistrust and undermining security here are the differing claims to the maritime space on top of the very different visions of the region offered by the relevant actors. There remains considerable mistrust and little diplomatic contact, an environment which is not conductive to effective solutions to the many critical issues plaguing the region. To remedy this insecurity, it is reasonable to expect regional powers to employ the assistance of outside influences in order to achieve goals in the Eastern Mediterranean energy market. Outside power brokers could create an avenue for building confidence in resolving maritime disputes, but at the same time, they could also help foster an environment where regional disagreements become more entrenched.
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Friday, December 10th
Australia Switches Army Helicopters
The Australian government has announced the decision to retire the country’s fleet of MRH90 Taipan helicopters a decade before their intended decommissioning date due to the unreliable nature of the vehicles. Canberra has now formally requested advice from the United States on the acquisition of up to 40 UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters for the Australian army as an alternative platform to the MRH90. The move marks the second time this year that Canberra has unilaterally withdrawn from existing military acquisition agreements in order to obtain US military hardware for its own forces.
The decision was made after the European Taipan fleet of helicopters was apparently unable to meet contracted availability requirements, and after many studies demonstrated the expected cost of ownership to be unaffordable going forward. Australian defence minister Peter Dutton said as much when he noted that the performance issues with the MRH90 Taipan have been a well-documented concern for defence forces, and that continued efforts at maintaining the fleet would have translated to mounting costs. Dutton made clear that the Australian defence forces must possess “a safe, reliable and capable utility helicopter” which is accompanied by “reasonable and predictable operating costs.” One of the issues plaguing the design of the Taipan fleet is said to be the fact that the helicopter’s door is too narrow for the operation of its gun while troops are descending.
The UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters that Australia is now looking to buy is the most widely used utility helicopter variant in the world, with the UH-60M being the latest version in service with the armed forces of the US and other nations for over a decade. While Dutton did not provide a date of delivery or even a tally of the costs associated with the UH-60M acquisition, he said Australian taxpayers will save roughly $2.5 billion through 2037. Dutton said the new helicopters would mean Australian forces will be more in line with those of the US, an important consideration given the increasing alignment of the two in recent years, particularly in matters pertaining to security.
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End of US-led Combat Operations in Iraq
The Iraqi military has announced an end to the US-led combat mission in Iraq. Qassim al-Araji, Iraq’s national security adviser, announced the news following the final round of technical talks held in order to formally end US combat operations in the country, most of which has involved rooting out ISIL (ISIS). With the official end of operations expected by the end of 2021, forces from the US-led coalition will transition into an advisory role which will see them assisting Iraqi forces going forward.
The withdrawal follows years-long turmoil in the Iraqi parliament over the withdrawal of foreign troops. US President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi announced in July that the United States would have no combat troops in Iraq by December 31, and this recent announcement indicates that process is expected to conclude on time. The US-led coalition pulled back its dispersed troops and weapons systems in Iraq last year and has since consolidated at major bases in Baghdad and Erbil. Often the target of popular discontent in civilian areas, US forces now remain in an advisory role safe in heavily-fortified bases where they assist Iraqi armed forces conduct operations and provide them with intelligence data.
But the official end of combat operations does not signal the end of US forces in Iraq. US forces will remain in Iraq in all the remaining US military bases established in the region on top of their advisory role for the Iraqi armed forces. Nevertheless, the end of operations is likely to bring an end to regular air and artillery strikes conducted by the US throughout Iraq. Expecting Iraq to rely on US assistance in the future, Biden administration officials expressed an openness to additional requests for support from the Iraqi government. Following immense pressure from armed militias in recent months, the announcement is perhaps aimed at easing tensions with militia fighters in Iraq as the US prepares to withdraw its troops before the year ends.
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