In Geopolitics This Week
The Fall of Kabul, The Arms the US Left Behind in Afghanistan, Turkey Steps in to Mediate Disputes Over Tigray, and other stories.
Monday, August 16th
The Fall of Kabul
The Taliban has taken control of Kabul and has stepped in to negotiate a peaceful transfer of power in preparation for the formation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Some members of the Afghan government have remained while others have fled, those who remain are said to be in talks with the Taliban to facilitate the transition to a new government. At the same time, the Taliban are largely abstaining from violence in an attempt to legitimise their rule.
Taliban officials have taken up security positions inside Kabul, have taken over the presidential palace, and are said to have offered amnesty for anyone who worked with the Afghan government. The footage emerging from the airstrip in Kabul International Airport has been gut-wrenching nonetheless, with scores of people pictured frantically attempting to board aircraft and clinging to the landing gear and the exterior of a moving US aircraft as it takes off.
It is difficult to speak for the motivations of each Afghan, but for many who actively worked with NATO forces throughout the almost twenty-year war the prospect of living under Taliban rule is understandably untenable. Most will have no means to escape without assistance from NATO member states. The damaging effects of the horrific way this withdrawal is playing out for the US only further increases the fallout from the defeat in Afghanistan.
Read more about this story here.
What Posture Might Afghanistan Take Under Taliban Rule
As the Taliban looks to formalise control over Afghanistan and pursue legitimacy both domestically and internationally, there is an impetus to better understand what kind of posture Afghanistan might assume toward other states in the region and beyond. It is possible that some NATO members will not recognise Taliban rule, and could choose to continue to support Ghani in exile. Stability at home will be key for the Taliban.
With the collapse of the Afghan police and security forces, a lack of centralised control could lead to scenarios where weapons stay in the hands of soldiers as they return to their villages, which could quickly lead to a lingering civil war in Afghanistan. Further (and perhaps more covert) involvement by foreign powers in Afghanistan could also keep the Taliban on their toes. Th Taliban may soon come to realise that guerrilla war and governance require entirely different skillsets.
Countries will have to decide whether or not to recognise the new Taliban government. Pakistan may have little choice but to deal with the Taliban, especially given the flow of weapons and fighters across a border which is difficult to enforce between the two countries. Recognition from either China or Russia would be a major victory for a group like the Taliban, as both are permanent members of the UN Security Council. Beijing has already engaged with the Taliban in a bid to realise its Belt and Road Initiative. Full diplomatic recognition from either is unlikely however, at least not until the Taliban has achieved a significant degree of security and stability within the territory of Afghanistan.
Read more about this story here.
Tuesday, August 17th
Israel-Iran Shadow War Continues to Threaten Merchant Shipping
The recent attacks on shipping in the Middle East are part of a conflict being waged between Israel and Iran. Israel seeks to deny Hezbollah its income from oil shipments, so it attacks convoys in transit to Lebanon. Iran retaliates, as was likely the case in the recently reported attack on the Mercer Street vessel. Shipping is threatened amidst this shadow war with neither side willing to escalate to outright war.
The Israeli attacks have been an active effort to deny shipments of Iranian oil to be delivered to ports in Syria. Because a significant quantity of this oil eventually goes to Lebanon and ends up in the hands of Hezbollah, Israel is attempting to cut off a major source of income for Hezbollah. But while Israel's attacks on Iranian tankers will disrupt this supply to Hezbollah, by escalating the conflict to such a degree Israel sets its own merchant vessels up for possible retaliation as both engage in tit-for-tat military action.
Israel has made multiple strikes on Iranian targets inside Syria, but this may be largely motivated by Israel’s desire to curb Hezbollah rather than Iran directly. The likelihood of these attacks on merchant vessels escalating into a full-scale war is low, and because neither side seeks to escalate this low-level conflict into a general war, the region will likely continue to see threats to merchant shipping for the foreseeable future.
Read more about this story here.
War in Afghanistan a Humbling Experience for the UK
UK lawmakers and military personnel will have to confront some unpleasant truths about the over 20-year conflict in Afghanistan. When looking for a national strategy in Afghanistan over the years, what some find is that the UK was operating little more than just tactically on the battlefield, and held very little influence over the overarching US-defined strategy.
UK forces continued to operate in Afghanistan even after most other NATO members had withdrawn their forces for a few reasons: to support its ally even to the point of upholding a failing strategy; the UK was driven by an ambition to transform Afghanistan’s society into a functioning democratic state; to uphold the status quo by enshrining its ideals and interests in international law; to check Russian and Chinese geopolitical influence in South Asia. But while the UK enjoyed tactical success on the battlefield, these victories did not be translate into policy success due to the failures of the broader US strategy.
The UK’s grand strategy was largely to align closely with the US from the very beginning of the war, but perhaps being Washington’s closest military ally does not make for an effective national strategy. If a fundamental goal of the UK’s strategy in Afghanistan was to uphold the values of human rights or the vibrancy of democracy, the country has utterly failed at these objectives by most measures. The outcome of the disasterous campaign in Afghanistan may come to mean further challenges to the status quo, with increasing pressure for the UK to uphold its ‘values’ even when its own national interests are not at stake.
Read more about this story here.
Wednesday, August 18th
The Arms the US Left Behind in Afghanistan
The rapid advance of the Taliban, has meant that the United States and the United Kingdom have been unable to withdraw many of their weapons, vehicles and aircraft. In the scramble to leave, US-made Black Hawk helicopters have been pictured in the hands of the Taliban. After the group took over Mazar-i-Sharif airport, pictures emerged of Taliban fighters also standing next to an MD-530 utility helicopter and an A-29 attack plane.
The Afghan air force are said to have operated a total of 211 aircraft according to a report conducted in July. Of those left behind, the A-29 Super Tucano is the most advanced piece of US military aircraft as it is fitted with sophisticated US-made sensors and weapons. The abandonment of advanced weaponry at such a scale also has the potential to feed further conflict in Afghanistan and will certainly anger other regional players. But according to US Gen. Mark Kelly, Chief of Air Combat Command, the Taliban’s acquisition of aircraft such as the A-29 is not threatening, and that for the US, it is not “something that, frankly, concerns us.”
So far, it remains unclear what part of the arms captured by the Taliban are operable, or what the Taliban intends to do with them. While the Taliban could sell captured vehicles and aircraft to countries like China or Russia, none would hold exceptional valuable to either power according to US defence analysis. Black market sales of a small number of vehicles or parts is likely however, with some states perhaps willing to conduct business with the Taliban through intermediaries. Short of selling the captured arms, the cost of the logistics associated with maintaining such sophisticated weaponry would be an expensive proposition for the Taliban.
Read more about this story here.
Turkey Exploring the Cost of Pursuing a Lasting Footprint in Kabul
Ankara has recently been negotiating with Washington over a future Turkish military presence in Kabul. The initial plan was for Turkey to take up a fortified position in Kabul’s international airport once US forces completed their withdrawal. But following the rapid fall of Kabul, the US has little of Kabul left to negotiate and Turkey must decide how it wants to proceed with the Taliban in power.
Both Turkish and Taliban officials have signalled that they are open to dialogue with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating he could consider meeting with Taliban leaders in person. Ankara is seeking to advance diplomatic contacts and has made efforts to establish contacts with Pakistan. Ankara’s diplomatic strategy is to engage an Islamic government in Afghanistan by exporting Turkish experts and expertise into influential positions. Militarily however, Ankara has a multitude of risks to consider before engaging in Afghanistan.
But the public drive to engage in grand pan-Islamic narratives to domestic audiences in Turkey may just be a government in crisis attempting to deflect from disaster at home. Turkey has not handled a series of deadly floods and wildfires adequately and its public is demanding answers from a government that appears distracted abroad. Turkey faces an uphill battle in managing the risks of such an engagement parallel to maintaining domestic stability.
Read more about this story here.
Thursday, August 19th
Canada Eager to Modernise NORAD Together with the US
Canada and the United States have expressed a joint desire to uphold and modernise the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) agreement, a combined organisation shared between the United States and Canada that provides aerospace warning and air sovereignty protection over Northern America. Military officials from both countries made pledges to invest in a new network of sensors said to be aimed at detecting and tracking ballistic missiles.
The statement commits both countries to work toward the goal of integrating more advanced capabilities in order to “maintain persistent awareness and understanding of potential threats to North America in the aerospace and maritime domains.” Both countries also stated that the modernisation process must ensure NORAD is able to “deter acts of aggression against North America” and “respond to aerospace threats quickly and decisively when required.”
US military officials have expressed a desire for all the sensor data to be integrated in real time so that active personnel are able to interact with information gathered from this vast network of sensors from anywhere on the globe. To get to this point, the military will have to rely on machine learning to process the of data collected by its sensors at a scale humans cannot.
Read more about this story here.
Algeria Blames Wilfires on Israel, Morocco
Algeria has publicly linked Israel and Morocco with a militia group suspected of being responsible for starting deadly fires which are raging across the country. Algerian officials have suggested the wildfires were the work of arsonists and the president’s office announced the arrest of 22 people suspected of involvement. The statement implicated foreign powers when stating that the rebel group responsible “gets support and help from foreign parties, particularly Morocco and the Zionist entity.”
The president’s statement indicated that Algerian relations with Morocco will have to be reviewed, and that the Algerian government will pursue an "intensification of security controls on the western borders" with Morocco. As regards Israel, the Algerian government does not even recognise the country and refers to it in official statements only as the ‘Zionist entity.’
Algerian relations with Morocco are tense. Just last month, Algeria recalled its ambassador to Morocco after Morocco's envoy to the UN expressed support for separatists in Algeria's Kabylie region. Relations between Algiers and Rabat have been tumultuous for decades, with the countries regularly at odds over the disputed Western Sahara territory. Moroccan King Mohammed VI has offered assistance to Algeria to stop the spread of wildfires, but Algeria has yet to publicly respond.
Read more about this story here.
Friday, August 20th
Washington Tries to Turn Vietnam into a Strategic Partner
President Biden has expressed that one of his administration’s foreign policy priorities is partnering with Asian nations. He has said that going forward, the United States will work to deepen their partnerships with India, New Zealand, Singapore, Vietnam, and other ASEAN member states in order to “advance shared objectives.” Of the administration’s listen priority targets, Vietnam stands out as it is the only country from the region with a wholly different political system to the United States. Because the new administration regards Vietnam as a constructive geopolitical ally, these differences will have to be somehow reconciled.
But the Vietnamese leadership remains distrustful towards any strategic agreements which might pull Vietnam into military commitments antagonistic to China. While Vietnam continues to maintain a balanced and constructive relationship with Beijing, historical and cultural ties between the two have been consistently antagonistic for centuries. Relations have been strained recently too, with maritime sovereignty disputes as well as minor skirmishes between Chinese and Vietnamese fishing vessels in the South China Sea causing friction between the two countries.
Since the US and Vietnam normalised their relations, bilateral trade has skyrocketed, reaching $90 billion in 2020. The US is now Vietnam’s second-largest trading partner, only second to China, with trade relations growing rapidly since Vietnam’s accession to the World Trade Organisation. Defence ties have also deepened, with Vietnam now a buyer of US-made surveillance drones and other military hardware. Going forward, the Biden administration may be looking to charm Vietnam into buying more US arms as part of cooperative mechanisms which are corrosive to Chinese influence, thereby developing a strategic partnership with Vietnam over time at Beijing’s expense.
Read more about this story here.
Turkey Steps in to Mediate Disputes Over Tigray
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stepped in to offer Turkey’s assistance as a mediator to the ongoing border dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan. Following a meeting with Ethiopian officials in Anakara reported to be over the signing of yet-undisclosed military agreements between the two countries, Erdogan has said that his government strongly supports a peaceful resolution to the border conflict in Tigray.
The conflict over the control of Tigray is just one of many tense disputes in the Horn of Africa that have the potential to escalate into a regional war. With the border dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan seeking a flare-up in violence recently, and while the Grand Ethipian Renaissance Dam dispute remains unresolved between Egypt and Ethiopian, the region looks to remain tense as the stakes are high for the majority of players.
The visit by Ethiopian officials comes just weeks after Turkey agreed to increase cooperation with Sudan by offering infrastructure development. The warm Turkish reception of both parties to the dispute is yet another sign of Turkey’s hyper-active regional foreign policy. As a significant pole of power in the region and the wider Islamic world, Turkey sees itself as a natural leader in regional politics and seeks to influence much of what goes on in its near abroad.
Read more about this story here.