In Geopolitics This Week
Spain to Pardon Jailed Catalan Independence Leaders, Unsettling Signs of Friction in the Black Sea, Japan's Ambiguous Position Toward Taiwan, and other stories.
Monday, June 21st
War in Yemen Turns Sour as Houthi Rebels Threaten Marib
After a short lull in fighting at the start of the year, violence has flared again between government forces and Houthi rebels over the strategic city of Marib in northern Yemen. This latest flare-up has reportedly left 47 dead.
Earlier this month, officials from Oman visited Sanaa to mediate between the rebels and the government in the hopes of brokering a ceasefire. However, these diplomatic efforts appear to have been mostly in vain as armed conflict resumes throughout Yemen. Even the UN special envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, informed the Security Council that "the parties have not resolved their differences."
At the same time, unverified reports from the Yemeni Armed Forces suggest that a US ScanEagle drone may have been shot down by the air defences of the Yemeni Army in Marib province. The rebels are seeking to seize control of Marib, the last stronghold of the Yemeni government in the north, which is surrounded by very lucrative oil fields.
While diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire in Yemen had seen a period of intensification over the last month or so, there has also been in parallel a contest for control over key territories in a bid by each side to hold the upper hand in any negotiations.
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Spain to Pardon Jailed Catalan Independence Leaders
The Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, has announced that his government will issue pardons this week to nine jailed Catalan political leaders who participated in the organisation of the October 2017 independence referendum. The nine Catalan politicians and activists were jailed for the crimes of sedition and misuse of funds, and the verdicts caused protests across Catalonia.
The move was announced in a speech today at the Liceu Opera House in Barcelona, where the tone struck was one of national reconciliation between Catalonia andSpain, leaving behind ‘confrontation’. The lecture Sánchez gave was titled Reencuentro, meaning ‘reunion’ or ‘reunited,’ and his words were mostly conciliatory throughout his speech.
But the Supreme Court has issued a report to say that it opposes granting pardons to the jailed leaders, while acknowledging that an 1870 law stipulates that responsibility lies with the Spanish government to decide whether to grant them.
The court considered there were no reasons based on ‘justice, fairness or public utility’ to grant pardons to the jailed leaders. Magistrates emphasised ‘no evidence of remorse’ when considering that the existing prison sentences of 9-13 years imprisonment to be proportionate.
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Tuesday, June 22nd
Consolidating the Interests of NATO Allies
The G-7 Summit, aiming to recover from the perils of the pandemic and vying to “build back better” together, was, particularly considering the challenges ahead, a rather inconclusive affair. If nothing else however, it was the culmination of months of diplomatic work by the new US administration to rally its allies for the coming competition with China. Leaders around the world are watching and taking notes of how the US administration and its partners negotiate a common agenda.
The last few months have been particularly active, with several high-level joint statements between US allies: the Japan-U.S. Summit in April, the G-7 Foreign and Development Ministers’ Meeting and the South Korea-U.S. Summit in May, as well as the Australia-Japan 2+2 Foreign and Defense Ministerial Consultations in June.
What these declarations had been missing, however, was a more direct mention by all partners of the Taiwan issue specifically, and the China challenge more broadly. This was amended by the joint G-7 Summit Communiqué, which included the following line: “We underscore the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and encourage the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues.” Two days later, the same mention also appeared in the EU-US Summit Statement.
According to diplomatic sources cited by a Tokyo-based news agency, France and Germany argued that since the Taiwan Strait issue had already been touched upon a month ago, it was not necessary to bring up the issue in the leaders’ communiqué, both nations likely looking to mitigate any potential backlash from Beijing. But by the morning of the last day of the summit, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel both agreed on including the Taiwan Strait issue in the communiqué.
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US Withdrawal from the Middle East
The Pentagon is reportedly in the midst of pulling out a variety of capabilities from Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East region. According to the reports, the withdrawal will include Patriot missiles, a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, fighter aircraft and other unspecified weapons.
But the withdrawal of systems from the Middle East is not a move unique to the sitting US president. In fact, both Obama and Trump made public commitments to a reduction of US forces in the Middle East. Though perhaps a significant part of the reason behind why Biden is presiding over this long-intended withdrawal has to do with the decision of the Trump administration to bolster Saudi air defence capabilities in the wake of the drone attack on the Abqaiq oil facility in 2019.
George Friedman thinks that the Biden administration’s withdrawal is primarily driven by the need for redeployment in other regions. He considers the Pacific theatre, but notes that the US has long been conscious of a Chinese threat, and therefore sufficient capability must already be deployed there. On the Russian theatre, Friedman points out that the US has interests in both Belarus and the Caucasus, and that translates to a realistic security interest in increasing air defences in several countries, such as Poland, Romania, Georgia and Ukraine.
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Wednesday, June 23rd
Unsettling Signs of Friction in the Black Sea
The Russian military has said one of its warships in the Black Sea was forced to fire warning shots on Wednesday to force a British destroyer away from Crimea, which Moscow claims as its territorial waters, but Britain has denied the Russian account and insisted that its ship was not fired upon.
It appears to be the first time since the Cold War that live ammunition is used by Moscow to deter a NATO warship, a sign of the precarious international environment we inhabit.
The Russian Defence Ministry said a patrol ship fired warning shots after the British destroyer HMS Defender had ignored a notice against intrusion and sailed 3 kilometers into the disputed territorial waters near Sevastopol. It said a Russian Su-24 bomber dropped four bombs ahead of the British ship’s path in a bid to change its course.
The British Ministry of Defence issued a statement claiming that the Russians were undertaking a gunnery exercise in the Black Sea” and that they were provided with “prior warning of their activity.” But strangely, the British MoD contradicted the Russian account when they stated that “no shots were directed at HMS Defender” and that they “do not recognize the claim that bombs were dropped in her path.”
Whatever the obscured truth behind the incident, it is concerning that these kind of incidents are becoming commonplace. Not two weeks ago the US and Russia were blaming each other for a near collision that occurred between their ships in the East China Sea.
There are also signs of some trickery at play here, with reports suggesting that the positions of two NATO ships were deliberately falsified near a Russian Naval Base. There is also an unverified recoding of the British-Russian radio engagement floating around the internet, as well as this aerial footage supposedly released by the Russian MOD.
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Looking Beyond the Iranian Election
Iran has elected its new president, Ebrahim Raisi, who will assume the office on 3 August 2021. The new head of government will have the opportunity to revive the Iranian economy, improve diplomatic relations, and to strengthen Iran’s position in the wider Middle East. Political analyst Marwan Bishara, writing for Al Jazeera, goes through three possible scenarios that a Raisi presidency could bring.
The first would be an outcome where Raisi sets the priorities of his government toward economic reform, likely involving a push to secure a nuclear deal in exchange for the easing of sanctions. This would send a clear message that his government willing to give concessions to improve the lives of ordinary Iranians, who have suffered from tough sanctions. But Bishara notes that the likelihood of this scenario playing out is somewhere between zero and five percent.
The second would be a scenario where Raisi would choose to maintain the status quo by relying on the revenue derived from higher oil prices, dig in its heels and wait for the United States to reconsider its position on the JCPOA. This could involve a slow move toward reestablishing relations with key European powers on the basis of “mutual respect and mutual interest.” Bishara foresees this as a likely outcome of the coming Raisi presidency, and gives the likelylihood of this outcome a thirty-five percent chance.
The third would see the Raisi government double down on hardline conservative views, resist foreign pressures while at the same time supporting militias across the region in a bid to balance against its adversaries. The Raisi government could also take advantage of the instability plaguing its Arab neighbours, particularly at a time of limited US military disengagement. As US interests and capabilities are increasingly fixated on the Indo-Pacific, there are opportunities on the horizon for Iran if they can be seized. On the likelyhood of this outcome, Bishara thinks this scenario has a sixty-five percent chance of playing out.
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Thursday, June 24th
China’s Incredible Digital Payment Transformation
China used to have a cash-based economy prior to the widespread introduction of the QR-code system. Online payments have transformed the Chinese economy in an unprecedented way. One of the reasons for this tremendous success of online payments is the relative lack of regulation at the time these platforms were built.
When the mobile payment applications were first getting off the ground, authorities were hands-off in dealing with them, both due to a lack of familiarity with the new technology and because of the small size of the pie that early adopters occupied in the banking sector. Government policy at that time was also encouraging growth in the e-commerce sector.
The meteoric rise of Alipay and WeChat Pay in China has brought convenience to more than a billion consumers. Ant Group and Tencent have consolidated their market shares into market-dominating positions. But the time when domestic regulators turn a blind eye to fintech and cryptocurrency expansion appears to be over according to developments in recent months.
Opportunities for partnership and expansion abroad, if leveraged successfully, still persist. Systems already in place in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia will be used to incentivise future cooperation in each region, with the experience Chinese fintech entrepreneurs are gaining in China already playing a significant part behind its international reach.
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Russia’s Entrenched Position in Syria
Russia came into the fold in Syria with considerable military matériel in 2015, with a major military intervention that played a consequential role in defeating anti-government rebel groups. Most of the Russian support was logistical in nature, such as the provision of military supplies and assistance in repairing Russian tanks, artillery and other systems. In addition, air support for Syrian forces have been considerable, with over 45,000 sorties flown since 2013.
None of this would have been possible without the new Hmeimim airbase. The base was rapidly built by Russia next to the main airport outside Latakia City, which has a port that could support the appropriate cargo ships necessary to bring in supplies for construction. The new Hmeimim airbase is in a favourable strategic position, north of the port of Tartus and just 50 kilometres from the Turkish border.
The Russian airstrikes have done major damage to Assad’s opponents, and this has led to further cooperation between the Syrian and Russian governments. In 2018, Syria and Russia signed a new treaty expanding and legalizing Russian control over the growing Tartus and Hmeimim bases under a 49-year lease agreement. In 2020, Syria agreed to expand the 2018 agreement, and provided Russia with additional land next to Hmeimim for an expansion. All indications point toward Russia moving in to stay.
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Friday, June 25nd
France Suspends Aid to the Central African Republic
France has historically held a dominant position in the Central African Republic (CAR), even following the country’s independence in 1960. With over 20 large French corporations conducting business locally in CAR, its existing economic relationships rely on investments from France in order to balance the national budget.
But it’s the military dimension of the relationship between the two countries where French support to CAR has been most significant. Roughly 300 French soldiers are currently stationed in the CAR and actively engaged in counter-insurgency operations. This is a significant drawdown from the height of Operation Sangaris, a French military intervention between 2013-2016 that saw up to 2,500 French soldiers stationed in the CAR.
But France has seen its influence wane in the CAR since Moscow entered the fray in 2018. While Russia is yet to truly cement its presence on the African continent, Putin is looking to change this through “significant opportunities” in Russian-African relations. One such opportunity has taken the form military aid. In 2018, Russia supplied the CAR with firearms and munitions, as well as 175 instructors for the purpose of training the country’s armed forces.
But Russia is not the only contributor to the CAR. The landlocked country, which is still embroiled in a civil war, has received assistance from the UN, EU, France, Russia, South Africa, and Rwanda. The new Prime Minister, Henri Marie Dondra, will have to perform a delicate balancing act between the financers of his state budget, while also working to quell the violence which paralyses the CAR’s economic activity.
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Japan’s Ambiguous Position Toward Taiwan
The ambiguous positions of the US and Japan regarding Taiwan have been formed under different historical and strategic backgrounds.
The US policy toward the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty is generally known as “strategic ambiguity.” Under this policy, Washington has remained ambiguous regarding if, when and how it would intervene in defence of Taiwan in an effort to prevent both Beijing and Taipei overtly exerting themselves.
On the other hand, Japan’s ambiguous stance on the Taiwan issue comes more as a result of domestic and regional compromises. Japan has so far managed to balance its regional relationships with the US and China without harming its core interests, and recent governments have avoided a potentially damaging debate surrounding defence acquisition amongst a very pacifist domestic population.
But with the balance of power between the US and China in the South China Sea shifting, and the probability of a conflict over Taiwan increasing, ambiguity may not serve Japan as well in the coming years.
Ayumi Terakoa argues that Tokyo should plan and prepare for a contingency over Taiwan, and look toward implementing deterrence strategies towards China. She suggests the Japanese government should repeatedly stress that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is key to protecting its people and property, and that it opposes all attempts of China to unilaterally change the status quo.
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