In Geopolitics This Week
Indonesia Challenges China’s Maritime Claims with Offshore Gas Project, Large Deposit Of Rare Earth Elements Found In Sweden, Tigray Rebels Begin Handover of Heavy Weapons, and other stories.
Indonesia Challenges China’s Maritime Claims with Offshore Gas Project
Indonesia's government has approved an offshore gas project in the South China Sea, known as the Tuna block, with a price tag of over $3 billion. The Tuna block lies in the waters between Indonesia and Vietnam, and promises to deliver peak production of 115 million cubic feet of natural gas daily by 2027, which will then be exported to Vietnam.
The field sits within Indonesia’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone, and under international law, Jakarta has the right to exploit natural resources there. However, China claims almost all of the South China Sea, extending to the area where the gas field lies. In recent years, Indonesia has been pushing back against Beijing’s maritime claims over the strategic waterway. Jakarta’s decision to authorize the development plan should be seen as a signal of the country’s resolve in the face of China's claims.
The approval for the offshore gas project comes as tensions between the two countries have flared over the Natuna Islands. China doesn’t claim the islands themselves, but says it has maritime rights in parts of the surrounding waters. In a 2016 confrontation, a Chinese coast guard ship prevented Indonesian authorities from detaining a Chinese fishing boat in the Natuna waters. This encounter spurred Jakarta to strengthen its military and economic presence in the area, though the islands’ remoteness has made it difficult for Indonesia to fully implement its policies.
The development of the natural gas field is not just an economic decision for Indonesia, it also carries geopolitical implications. The head of Indonesia’s oil-and-gas task force, Dwi Soetjipto, has stated that “the red and white flag will fly over the project location,” alluding to the geopolitical goals associated with the venture. He also said that the Indonesian navy will “join” in “securing the upstream energy project” as a means to affirm Indonesia’s “sovereignty over that area.”
Large Deposit Of Rare Earth Elements Found In Sweden
Swedish mining company LKAB has identified significant deposits of rare earth elements (REEs) in the Kiruna area in Sweden, marking the largest known deposit of its kind in Europe. LKAB plans to apply for an exploitation concession this year, but due to the permitting process, it will likely be at least 10-15 years before mining can begin and raw materials can be delivered to the market.
The Swedish Geological Survey has previously reported that REEs occur throughout Sweden, with some regions having higher concentrations than others. The major deposit types found in the country are apatite-iron oxide mineralization in Norrbotten and Bergslagen, the skarns of the Riddarhyttan–Norberg belt, the Norra Kärr complex, and the Olserum and Alnö areas.
REEs are critical components of permanent magnets used in motors for wind turbines and in batteries for electric vehicles. The EU regards REEs as essential components of its efforts to achieve climate neutrality by the middle of the century. Brussels remains heavily dependent on China for REEs, with nearly 98% of all imports coming from China. The EU estimates that the bloc's need for REEs will grow by the end of the decade, as more member states create wind farms and more electric cars are purchased.
China has the largest reserves of REEs in the world, followed by Vietnam, Brazil, and Russia. China also leads in refining and processing REEs, with over 60% of global production as of January 2022. The US, Myanmar, and Australia are also major producers. In contrast, Europe has regulatory barriers to mining and production of critical raw materials, and currently does not mine REEs. This dependence on China and other countries for REEs has become a political issue as the EU aims to reduce trade dependencies on China and Russia.
Tigray Rebels Begin Handover of Heavy Weapons
Tigrayan rebels have begun to turn in their heavy weapons as stipulated in an agreement reached with Ethiopia's government in November 2020, according to a spokesperson for the rebel authorities. “Tigray has handed over its heavy weapons,” said spokesman Getachew Reda in a tweet, confirming that the handover had been verified by an African Union monitoring team.
The demobilization of Tigray forces is central to the ceasefire agreement, alongside the restoration of services, resumption of humanitarian aid and withdrawal of Eritrean troops. The handover of weaponry was reportedly overseen by a monitoring team comprising members of the two sides and a regional body, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) reported on January 12th that Amhara special forces have also withdrawn from Shire, a town located 140 kilometres northwest of the Tigray region's capital Mekele. This move, if confirmed, would support the trust-building process between the Tigray People's Liberation Front and the ENDF, as the withdrawal of “foreign forces” from Tigray is a critical aspect of the November 2022 peace agreement and one of the key demands made by the Tigrayan leadership in exchange for disarmament.