In Geopolitics This Week
Russia Severs Ties with NATO, Poland Triggers a Crisis for the European Union, Turkey Arrests Over a Dozen Israeli Spies, and other stories.
Monday, October 18th
US Extends Military Support Deal with Georgia
As a military training pact between the United States and Georgia was set to expire, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin signed an agreement which will extend American military support to Georgia for a period of six years. The signing of a memorandum of understanding was announced following Austin’s meeting with Georgian Defense Minister Juansher Burchuladze. The agreement will be an extension of an existing program which was due to expire by the end of the year, and will serve as the focal point for further defence cooperation between the US and Georgia in the years ahead.
The unveiled program is aimed at making drastic bureaucratic reforms in the defence relationship, with a particular focus on training Georgian armoured brigades with engineering capabilities. Juansher Burchuladze said that Georgia intends to make progress in reforming the country’s defence sector by strengthening capabilities for “effective deterrence and defense,” and “fostering interoperability with NATO nations.” The agreement comes after the Biden administration approved a sale of Javelin anti-tank missiles and launchers to Georgia worth $30 million in August.
The six-year extension of Washington’s military support brings Georgia’s relationship with the United States to a new level of cooperation, and is directly aimed at continually deterring Russia. Austin will also meet with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv and Romanian officials in Bucharest this week, as he sets off on a tour of the Black Sea to reaffirm Washington’s support to allies, with Moscow keeping a close eye on developments. The Caucasus and Black Sea regions hold strategic value for Moscow as corridors for the transit of goods, energy, and telecommunications to the Mediterranean.
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Russia Severs Ties with NATO
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has announced that Russia is suspending its permanent mission to NATO. Following NATO announcements earlier this month which cut the overall size of the Russian mission in half, Russia has responded by shutting down its offices and recalling all its staff. On top of that, Russia is also closing the NATO Information Office and the NATO Military Liaison Mission on November 1, both of which are based in Moscow. The closure of NATO offices marks a new low in the relationship between Russia and NATO institutions.
Lavrov justified the closure by pointing out that NATO is not interested in “any kind of equal dialogue or joint work.” The Russian Foreign Minister went on to say that Moscow no longer sees any positive prospects for the relationship “in the foreseeable future.” NATO suspended cooperation with Russia in 2014, after it annexed the Crimean Peninsula, but channels such as the Russian Permanent Mission to NATO always remained open for high-level meetings or military-to-military cooperation. Now, with dialogue through the NATO-Russia Council sporadic at best, room for error grows in an already tense relationship.
While ties have been strained for years, platforms such as Russia’s Permanent Mission to NATO were effective tools for managing crises and minimising misperceptions. But as the proposed November 1 deadline approaches, the risk of conflict increases because the channels which once enabled dialogue between Moscow and political leaders of NATO member states are now quickly closing. As relations deteriorate, both Moscow and NATO continue to repeatedly voice concerns over the deployment of forces, with each designating the other a security threat.
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Tuesday, October 19th
Poland Deploys Thousands of Troops to Its Border with Belarus
In September, Poland declared a state of emergency in response to thousands of illegal immigrants crossing the border from Belarus. The Polish Border Guard has said that unlawful border crossings have reached record highs, prompting Poland to reinforce its border with Belarus. With over 3,000 troops already operating along the Polish-Belarussian border, the defence minister of Poland has now announced a surge of a further 3,000 personnel.
In late August, in anticipation of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, Warsaw began the construction of a 2.5-meter-high fence along its 418-kilometer border with Belarus in an effort to stem the flow of illegal immigrants. The security measures were taken in part due to credible fears of a migration crisis caused by the Taliban takeover. At the same time, Poland and Lithuania have both reported a rise in illegal border crossings, placing the blame on the Belarussian government for forcing migrants across the border. The issue appears to be getting worse, as Polish officials recently announced plans to spend more than $400 million on improving its border security by building a solid wall along the border with Belarus.
Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kamiński justified the deployment of an additional 3,000 troops on the grounds that the number of illegal crossings has not fallen despite an increase in guards and soldiers on the border. The Polish interior ministry claims that since January, the Polish Border Guard has prevented 9,287 attempts to cross the border from Belarus into Poland. Both the European Commission and Warsaw attest that the flow of illegal immigrants is being orchestrated by Belarus as a form of hybrid warfare, a charge Belarus continues to deny. Nonetheless, the Polish decision to reinforce its border with an additional troop deployment will — whether by design or not — will exacerbate an already tense relationship.
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The African Continental Free Trade Agreement
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a continent-spanning free trade zone formed in 2018. AfCFTA is aimed at creating a single continental market in Africa, which, if successful, will enable its signatories to access the free movement of goods, persons, and investments. Fifty-four countries have thus far signed the agreement and 30 countries have already ratified the document with the African Union Commission. The free-trade area is the largest in the world in terms of the number of participating countries, and so has the potential to lift countless people out of poverty by connecting the economies of Africa.
Africa’s marginalisation in world affairs is nothing new. One look at the continent’s share of global trade paints a picture of stagnation, even at a time when African countries have undergone intensive market liberalisation programs. While in the early 1980s, Africa’s share of world trade averaged around 6 percent, today it is closer to 3 percent. Raw materials and commodities continue to dominate exports across the continent, while the manufacture of basic goods is increasingly being imported. This collapse of production has generated joblessness, and done little to alleviate the high levels of poverty.
Nevertheless, Africa has immense potential. The continent is vastly rich in natural resources, and home to some of the largest deposits of minerals in the world. Many of these minerals are rare earths and other precious elements which have a significant role to play in the rapid technological advancements of the 21st century. Above all, Africa has a massive domestic market which is growing faster than any other in the world, with Africa today accounting for more than 16 percent of the world’s population. AfCFTA promises to take advantage of this growing market by establishing a continental trade system, enabling African countries to tap into the wealth of the continent in a transformative and mutually beneficial way.
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Wednesday, October 20th
Poland Triggers a Crisis for the European Union
The Polish Constitutional Court recently ruled that the European Court of Justice has no legal right to make decisions regarding the Polish judiciary. The ruling effectively asserts that Polish national law takes precedence over European law, and has exacerbated a legal crisis brewing within the European Union. The Polish court’s decision has significant implications for the EU, with EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders describing the ruling as a brazen assault on the legal and political consensus that unites the continental bloc.
At a heated session of the European Parliament this week, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki squared off against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Von der Leyen declared that the ruling “calls into question the foundations of the European Union,” and accused Warsaw of posing a “direct challenge to the unity of the European legal order.” She then laid out possible avenues to sanction Poland, including the suspension of some of Poland’s rights and funds. Morawiecki fired back, stating that a European legal structure must “first gain the consent of all European countries and societies.” What follows is uncertain, and there are already indications that European leaders will attempt to use domestic mechanisms to block EU funds to Warsaw.
The widespread calls for cuts to how much Poland receives from the EU has incensed Polish officials. At the same time, as some float the idea of a potential Polish exit from the Union, the Warsaw denies accusations that it is seeking an exit from the EU, arguing that at issue is only whether the provisions of the EU’s treaties are compatible with the Polish constitution. But the ongoing legal dilemma underscores a key tension underlying how the EU works, and the ruling has raised difficult questions about whether provisions of the EU’s treaties give the EU Commission a say over legal matters in member states.
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Turkish Drone Sale to Ethiopia Risks Souring Relations with Egypt
Following the takeover of Mekelle — the capital of Tigray, a region in the north of Ethiopia — in June by rebel forces, Ethiopia has sought closer military ties with Turkey. Impressed by the capabilities of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones in the recent conflicts taking place in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, Addis Ababa made a request to purchase the TB2s as a low-cost weapon to tip the military balance on the ground in Tigray. But such a deal, should Ankara choose to greenlight it, could work to complicate Turkey’s relations with Egypt.
Ethiopia’s closer military ties with Turkey should be viewed within the context of the country’s two main security threats. First, Ethiopia is committed to the completion and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which has fuelled a serious international dispute with Egypt and Sudan in which diplomacy has yet to yield any results. Second, Addis Ababa is seeking to bolster its military capabilities to suppress active rebel forces in the Tigray region. By deepening its security ties with Ankara, Addis Ababa will be better able to tackle both of these security threats. However, a Turkish posture that would embolden Ethiopia in the ongoing GERD crisis would prove challenging for Egypt, and prompt Cairo to change its policies accordingly.
From Cairo’s perspective, a deepening military dimension to Turkish-Ethiopian ties would be an unwelcome development. Turkey’s relationship with Egypt has been rocky for years, and the Turkish presence in Libya has become a national security issue for Cairo. Moreover, Turkey’s active involvement in other regional conflicts, coupled with its eagerness to sell weapons to conflict zones, has become a fundamental issue of concern in Cairo. If Ankara does go ahead with the sale of TB2s to Addis Ababa, Cairo will be forced to react just as it begins to normalise ties with Turkey. Specific details about the drone sale remain unknown as both Addis Ababa and Ankara have kept quiet on the issue.
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Thursday, October 21st
Iran Nuclear Deal Stalls Due to Lack of Willpower
Iran remains hesitant to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) talks in Vienna for the revival of the 2015 nuclear agreement. The new government in Tehran, led by Ebrahim Raisi, appears to have lost interest in negotiated settlement that would see all parties rejoin the accord. Mistrust, confidence, and alternative policy options affords Iran the belief it can weather US sanctions. While Washington, which left the JCPOA agreement during the Trump presidency, continues to demand of the Iranians what they are unwilling to concede. The result is a lack of progress in JCPOA talks, and little sign of a successful renegotiation of its terms any time soon.
The Iranian side has insisted on legally binding commitments from the United States, while US negotiators have refused to commit the United States to the deal by failing to guarantee that a future administration would not abandon the JCPOA. When Iran supposedly lowered their demands and requested a commitment from Biden to stay compliant to the deal for the rest of his presidential term, the White House refused to make a commitment citing legal obstacles. Biden’s decision effectively means that the United States does not intend to rejoin the JCPOA under present terms, and instead will seek to use the country’s sanctions regime as a form of leverage in future negotiations.
The ease with which the United States can leave the JCPOA agreement is a “serious and legitimate concern” to many diplomats involved in the negotiations. For Tehran, the unreliability of a US commitment to the JCPOA puts Iran in a very vulnerable position. By lowering its demands in a potential JCPOA deal even further in an effort to alleviate the crippling sanctions which severely limit the country’s freedom of action abroad, Tehran will give up its nuclear leverage in exchange for little more than promises from Washington. Moreover, Biden’s unwillingness to commit will likely mean that Washington will seek out alternative avenues for maintaining pressure on Iran.
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Turkey Arrests Over a Dozen Israeli Spies
Relations between Turkey and Israel have been problematic of late. There has been no ambassador in either country since May 2018, following Turkey’s sharp reaction to Israeli attacks on Gaza and Washington’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Ties were strained further when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan denounced Israel’s West Bank annexation plan and vowed to prevent its implementation. Now, ties between the two appear to be deteriorating further, as Turkey has announced the arrest of 15 people accused of spying for Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency.
A team at the Turkish National Intelligence Organization has exposed a network of operatives working for Mossad which have reportedly been covertly carrying out activities against opponents of Israel. The spy network is said to have been tracked by Turkish intelligence units for a year, after which counterterrorism forces captured the 15 spies in a secret operation carried out earlier this month. According to reports, the spies were providing Mossad with information on foreign students enrolled in Turkish universities, with a particular focus on Palestinians living in Turkey. The investigation also revealed that one of the cells was tasked with contacting Mossad field officers and meeting them abroad, during which information and documents deemed of interest to Israel are said to have been relayed.
It was not that long ago that Turkey was considered Israel’s closest ally in the Muslim world. Relations began to sour after Israel conducted a three-week offensive against Hamas in 2008, and deteriorated further in May 2010, when actions undertaken by Israeli commandos led to the deaths of eight Turkish nationals. Since then, things have gone from bad to worse, with Turkey sharply downgrading its diplomatic and military ties with Israel in 2011, and expelling the Israeli ambassador after Israel refused to apologise for the deaths its operation caused. Moreover, Turkish energy ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean have increasingly come into conflict with Israel’s EastMed pipeline. The recent capture of 15 Israeli spies will only worsen relations, and flare up new disagreements between two of the most powerful nation-states in the region.
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Friday, October 22nd
Cuba Joins China’s Belt & Road Initiative
Cuba has officially joined the Alliance for Energy project, which is a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Havana’s Ambassador in Beijing, Carlos Miguel Pereira, highlighted the importance of BRI projects being promoted and financed by Beijing in an effort to expand and diversify energy cooperation. Pereira also reaffirmed Cuba’s commitment to sustainable development, and promised to pursue the common goals of the alliance. The diplomat also invited companies and institutions from other BRI participating countries to work on the promotion of green energy with the goal of achieving independence in the energy sector.
While Chinese investments in Cuba are nothing new, the move to join BRI comes at a time of increased geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. China has been very active in securing infrastructure deals in South America, which has caught the attention of policymakers in Washington who are eager to push back against Beijing’s growing influence. The US is said to be planning its own set of infrastructure investments in South and Central America to counter China’s involvement in what Washington has long considered its ‘backyard’.
If Cuba chooses to boost military ties with Beijing, the state of affairs will echo the Cold War, when the Soviet Union sought to counter US missiles based in Turkey by positioning its own in Cuba. In this light, Cuba’s accession to the BRI may well be a move by Beijing to respond to Washington’s increased military support to Taiwan. While Washington is focused preparing its allies for the tussle again, China is continuing its vast infrastructure investments under the banner of the BRI, with Cuba the latest country to join. For Cuba, long under a total blockade by the United States, investments from Beijing may be the lifeline the country needs as Havana remains largely isolated from regional trade.
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France Discusses European Defence with the United States
The last time US President Joe Biden spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron was in September, with their conversation taking place just after the announcement was made that the US will supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. The spat which followed the decision strained relations as the deal meant France lost out on an existing deal to sell French-built conventional submarines to Australia. Since then, the two leaders appear to have patched things up, and have now held a call on the future of European defence.
The two leaders discussed strengthening European defences, with Macron reportedly securing a significant commitment from Biden which stipulates that the US will respect French-led efforts to boost European defence and autonomy. On the other hand, Biden has sought to bring NATO members on board its Indo-Pacific toward China. The outcome of the call signals that the United States will allow France the freedom to boost European defence in a manner which ensures complementarity with NATO. Furthermore, a statement released by the White House included a US commitment of support toward French counter-terrorism operations in the Sahel.
US officials have been quick to patch up ties with France following the fallout from the AUKUS deal, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visiting Paris earlier this month for one-to-one discussions with Macron. It remains unclear whether ties between the two allies are back on track, but there are positive signs. France has returned its ambassador to Washington, and while Biden did not directly apologise to Macron for negotiating the AUKUS deal in secret, he acknowledged that the issue "would have benefited from open consultations among allies." The two leaders will meet again in Rome later this month, where they are expected to discuss matters related to European defence in more detail.
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