In Geopolitics This Week
A Contest Over Global Energy Markets Beckons, The Waning Influence of the EU in the Balkans, China’s Search for Food Security, and other stories.
Monday, November 22nd
The Lasting Security Dilemma Between Russia & Ukraine
Ukraine and Russia appear to be drifting toward a strategic impasse in Europe that cannot be solved without military means. Over the years, both Russia and Ukraine have undergone drastic militarisation campaigns beyond the still-frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine. The loudest voices in both political establishments maintain a focus on intractable issues while each state continues to double down on military solutions. The outcome has generated a security dilemma, where each side opts to bolster their military capabilities and readiness at various points along the border, thereby making the other more insecure in the process. With cooperation and trust are at an all-time low, an incident here has the potential to transform into a calamitous conflict.
Moscow has stoked fears by repeatedly amassing tens of thousands of troops, armoured forces and elite ground units to positions less than 150 km from the Ukrainian border. At the same time, Kiev has revitalised its national defence sector and reorganised its armed forces with foreign assistance, and the country has poured considerable wealth into importing weapons from Israel, Turkey, the US and the UK. Compounding issues are the varyingly combustive yet intertwined relations between different stakeholders in the conflict as avenues of communication have broken down across multiple levels. Relations between NATO and Russia remain at an all-time-low, relations between the US and Russia remain tense and adversarial, and relations between Ukraine and Russia remain openly hostile. Altogether this paints a bleak picture for what to expect in the months ahead.
As diplomatic dialogue between Moscow and Kiev is practically non-existent, the chance of success for any efforts aimed at mediating the escalating crisis are low. The only other significant stakeholder left with which Moscow will deal with regarding Ukraine is the US — the foremost military power within the NATO alliance and the largest supplier of arms to Ukraine. And perhaps this is why the outlook is so bleak: both Moscow and Washington are making considerable investments in policies aimed at achieving vastly different outcomes for Ukraine. In doing so, both powers — fearful of the others’ influence — continue to rely on military means to achieve their goals in the crisis, and are thereby worsening the security dilemma on the border between Russia and Ukraine.
Read more about this story here.
A Contest Over Global Energy Markets Beckons
The United States has announced an international initiative aimed at flooding the oil market with strategic oil reserves in order to quell rising oil prices. US President Biden has sought to get the largest energy consumers in the world onside to jointly tap their strategic petroleum reserves. Thus far, some of the largest consumers have all expressed a willingness to cooperate on the US initiative. However, such a move could cause turmoil in the energy markets. If OPEC+ continues to resist US pressures and maintains current levels of supply, the largest producers and consumers may be clashing to determine the price of oil globally.
As the price of oil has risen in recent months, the United States has repeatedly pressed the OPEC+ producer group to maintain an adequate global supply of oil. But having found little success in convincing OPEC+ members of the need for increased supply, Washington is now turning to other ways it can impact global energy prices. This has come in the form of a major diplomatic effort to build a coalition of net energy consumers. Washington’s attempt to marshal support from China, India, Japan, and South Korea promises to be a major boost to achieving lower energy prices as the grouping makes up the world’s top energy consumers. By jointly tapping their respective strategic oil reserves, these consumers are hoping to influence the price of energy by flooding the market with vast quantities of oil held in strategic reserves.
But the OPEC+ alliance has already rebuffed calls from Washington to speed up production and supply, and there is little sign the 23-nation alliance of producers is willing to increase supply. In response to the rumoured release of millions of barrels of crude, OPEC+ representatives have said the move is “unjustified by current market conditions.” Moreover, the group has hinted that it may choose to reconsider current plans to increase oil production, an issue that will be discussed when the group holds a meeting next week. Nevertheless, for US President Joe Biden, the sharp rise in energy prices is a critical issue stemming from political pressures resulting from rising consumer costs. While negotiations over a coordinated supply release have not yet been finalised, the domestic political pressures emanating from high prices will be increasingly difficult to ignore.
Read more about this story here.
Tuesday, November 23rd
Morocco Purchases Air Defence System from Israel
Morocco has signed a deal to acquire the Skylock Dome anti-drone air defence system from Israel. While Morocco and Israel have maintained minimal diplomatic relations throughout the 1990s, relations were formally broken off following violence in Palestine at the turn of the century. Since then, Morocco has normalised ties with Israel as part of a US-negotiated pact which saw Washington recognise the disputed Western Sahara region as the sovereign territory of Morocco. All this has led to Morocco boosting its ties with Israel, and the recent purchase of the Skylock Dome air defence system marks the first significant arms deal between the two.
Developed by the Israeli defence firm Skylock Systems, the Dome anti-drone air defence system can reportedly detect, verify, and neutralize drones. The system was first unveiled during this year’s International Defense Exhibition and Conference which took place in Abu Dhabi, and is said to have attracted interest from a diverse set of eager buyers. Skylock representatives have echoed this sentiment, and have said that a total of 27 nations have already penned agreements to purchase the anti-drone weapon system. The defence system is speculated to be very effective at its designated role, and can provide military forces with broad protection against the growing threat of state-of-the-art drones. Once Rabat acquires the system, it is expected to be deployed to protect the country’s strategic civilian and military facilities.
The reestablishment of diplomatic ties between the two has allowed for the reopening of economic liaison offices and a resumption of direct commercial flights between the two countries. The Israeli Defense Minister is expected to visit Morocco during the week where he will meet with Moroccan officials to finalize various defence cooperation agreements. As part of these agreements, both countries are aiming to jointly develop advanced munitions, drone manufacturing facilities, and even a military base near the city of Melilla. Morocco is pursuing drastic military reforms as part of the government’s 2022 budget, which has designated roughly $13 billion toward the acquisition of new tanks, fighter jets and other heavy weapons systems.
Read more about this story here.
The Waning Influence of the EU in the Balkans
The European Union is quickly losing its influence in the Balkans. Since the Union is unlikely to accept any new member states for the foreseeable future, much of the weight of its influence over the Balkans erodes. As the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic forces the EU to focus on economic recovery efforts, countries in the Western Balkans are less inclined to undertake the reforms necessary to earn their place in the bloc as promises from Brussels have failed to materialise. This has the effect of eroding the value of EU accession promises which once provided a lucrative incentive to influential political and economic forces operating in the region. Furthermore, non-EU players such as the United States, Russia and China are likely to become more active in the region as they see the European Union's waning presence as an opportunity.
The Bosnian Serbs are starting to question the status quo, with regional stakeholders increasingly disillusioned with the reality of EU accession as secessionist voices grow louder. Serbia — perhaps the country in the region least likely to be accepted into the EU — has also largely abandoned its aspirations for accession, with Belgrade deepening ties with Russia and China to the detriment of the EU. Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic has outright conceded that his country would not join the EU unless a resolution is found to its outstanding disputes with Kosovo. In Kosovo’s case, the leadership there has voiced numerous frustrations at the EU regarding a lack of EU-wide recognition of the country. Moreover, Kosovo is deepening ties with the United States and Israel, and therefore growing less reliant on the EU with each passing year.
The EU military mission to the region appears to be on borrowed time, and with little appetite across the EU to get entangled in a region with few national interests at stake for member states, it is hardly surprising why EU influence as a whole in the Balkans is on a downward trajectory. While the EU remains the dominant trade partner to countries in the region, Brussels has done little to help the Balkan countries deal with the desolate state of political and economic development across the region. Serbia, for instance, has received major support from China and Russia that has helped the country more effectively deal with the ingoing COVID-19 pandemic, a role the EU has failed to take up. Further erosion of the EU’s influence here is also the result of Russia’s foreign policy moves as Moscow has at numerous times attempted to exploit its historical and cultural ties with the region to challenge EU policies.
Read more about this story here.
Wednesday, November 24th
The Middle East Amidst a More Modest US Presence
As the US continues to draw down its presence across the Middle East, regional relationships are changing quickly and new partnerships are emerging. Washington’s gradual realignment of military assets toward the Info-Pacific will translate to a reduced US military footprint in the Middle East. But even beyond the growing competition with China, the US has over time become less interested in the Middle East. Yet Washington’s very hands-on approach in Iraq and elsewhere in the region has, intentionally or otherwise, resulted in a more powerful Iran, and has contributed toward a power vacuum in the region which is attracting other powers and raising questions as to the prudence of a reduced military presence.
Despite years under heavy sanctions and widespread regional isolation, the Islamic Republic of Iran has emerged as a powerful force in the Persian Gulf, and the country has demonstrated a resilience to external pressures. Through its support for rebels combating Saudi-led coalition forces, Tehran has repelled Riyadh and exposed vulnerabilities within US-made Saudi air defence systems while also demonstrating resolve through asymmetric warfare operations. At the same time, Tehran has maintained ties with neutral Gulf states by working closely with officials in Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, and has secured alliances with Shiite militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Huthi forces in Yemen, and with Syria's President Bashar al Assad. As a consequence, Iran emerges reinforced from the tumultuous decades following the Gulf War, and now enjoys the backing of Beijing as it withstands pressure from Israel and the US.
In many ways, China is becoming a major stakeholder in the Middle East. One drastic change from previous decades has been the shift in oil and gas supply chains. With the United States importing less oil and gas, and with China importing considerably more, Beijing has become the Arabian Peninsula's most important customer for raw materials. This alignment of economic interests has led to a warming of political ties, and most of the cooperation undertaken by Beijing here, much like elsewhere, is expressed through economic or trade partnerships. But this is not to say that Arabian Gulf countries are planning to break off longstanding ties with Washington as that would be disastrous for the region. Rather, increasingly, both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are willing to work with Beijing despite potential blowback from Israel or the United States.
Read more about this story here.
Ties Between Vietnam & Japan Will Now Cover Cybersecurity
Japan and Vietnam have signed a cybersecurity agreement to bolster rapidly developing ties across many crucial sectors. The move supplements a deal signed earlier this year which promises collaboration in military cooperation, economic revitalization, sustainable development, climate change, agriculture, and energy. In the latest meeting, officials from both governments made a commitment to quickly work on several strategic issues of mutual interest in the backdrop of China’s growing military and economic power.
In a recent meeting between Japan’s Defense Minister Kishi Nobuo and his Vietnamese counterpart, Phan Van Giang, a new field of cooperation has been added to the already broad-ranging relationship enjoyed between the two countries: cybersecurity. While not naming China outright, both leaders acknowledged the growing need for their countries to balance against China in the region. Both have expressed "serious concern" over China's drive to boost its military capabilities and focused their opposition to any unilateral attempts to “change the status quo,” condemning any activities that would escalate tensions. At the same time, the deals between the have facilitated the transfer of military technologies and defence equipment from Japan to Vietnam.
While the exact types or amounts of weapons that may form a part of a technology transfer remains unclear, closer political and military ties between Tokyo and Hanoi nonetheless represent a shift in regional dynamics. The export of weapons by Japan is a relatively new phenomenon in the region, and will pose difficult questions regarding the regional security environment in the years ahead. Japan shares many of the same advanced military platforms which consistently ensure US power across the international maritime space, and so this step undertaken by Japan to export arms to regional customers may represent a serious check on Chinese power in the coming years, especially when combined with other allied forces in Southeast Asia.
Read more about this story here.
Thursday, November 25th
France Signs Bilateral Cooperation Agreement with Italy
A German coalition government comprising of the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the Free Democrats could prove to be a boost to the European project. The EU’s power relationships are shifting following the exit of the Christian Democrats from the German government. Meanwhile, France and Italy have been preparing a wide-ranging bilateral agreement which promises a convergence in French and Italian positions in matters of foreign policy, defence, migration, economy, education, research and culture. The Quirinale Treaty, as it is called, is the result which stemms from a new chapter in the cooperation enjoyed by France and Italy in recent months, and will better position both countries to jointly influence European affairs in the years ahead.
A first glimpse of warming Franco-Italian ties came last year, when the two managed to get German agreement on common debt. Macron has found an ally in his Italian counterpart as both seek changes to Europe as a bloc at a time when the bloc’s largest economy is undergoing a power transition. The treaty forms a strong symbol of a developing Paris-Rome axis which may shift European policy to be more attentive to the interests of Southern European member states. While exact details of the agreement text are not yet publicly available, the deal will likely see the two countries commit to an alignment of policies across many fields.
The treaty will have at its heart industrial and strategic cooperation between the two European nations, while also working to establish a united voice in support of the European project. The agreement seems to have emerged in part due to the personal rapport developed between Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and French President Emmanuel Macron. Both leaders appear to get along as they are said to have held four talks since Draghi took office in February 2021, with both sharing a penchant for strengthening the European Union. Both have also discussed the matter of empowering the EU with US President Biden, who has expressed support by stating that a unified defence policy throughout the EU is within the interest of the US. And given the diversity of Germany’s new coalition government, France and Italy may enc up being better positioned to steer the EU according to their interests in the short-term.
Read more about this story here.
Australia Sends Troops to Solomon Islands
Australia is sending an attaché of police, troops and diplomats to the Solomon Islands amidst anti-government demonstrations in the island nation. The move by Canberra is said to be at the invitation of the Solomon Islands government, which is seeking aid to supress renewed anti-government demonstrations. Protests and riots were taking place in defiance of a government-mandated lockdown and have led to increased domestic turbulence. Australia’s response to a request for help will take the form of a deployment of 23 federal police officers, around 50 security personnel, and 43 armed forces personnel. Moreover, the troops are accompanied by at least five diplomats and a patrol boat.
People gathered in the capital, Honiara, to demand the resignation of Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare over a host of issues. But after meeting heavy police resistance, the protest descended into rioting, and led to a part of the parliamentary complex being burned to the ground. Other buildings damaged or destroyed included a Bank of South Pacific’s branch and several shops owned and operated by Chinese residents. Despite increased police patrols through Honiara, protesters have maintained a presence on the streets, stretching thin the capabilities of local law enforcement. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the request for Australian assistance is a legal move conducted under a bilateral security treaty.
This is not the first time in recent years that the leadership in Honiara requests Australia’s help to deal with domestic unrest. Longstanding inter-island rivalries between Honiara and Malaita have prompted Australian forces to deploy to the Solomon Islands before, as was the case between 2003 to 2017. This time Morrison said the national security committee of cabinet decided on sending security forces and diplomatic personnel to the embattled Sogavare. At the same time, Morrison has said the presence of Australian troops is meant to provide “stability and security,” and that Australia does not intend to intervene in the “internal affairs of the Solomon Islands.”
Read more about this story here.
Friday, November 26th
China’s Search for Food Security
Since the time of Deng Xiaoping, domestic food production in China has been on a rapid upward trajectory as the country has undergone a period of drastic economic growth. But as China’s economy has grown, so too has its population’s intake of food, leading to a situation where food waste, loss of farmland and changing diets all are contributing toward growing food insecurity in the country. The outcome of the interplay of these factors have resulted in China’s domestic food production being unable to sustain current consumption habits. Making matters worse are environmental impacts such as the floods in the Yangtze River basin, which have hampered China’s capacity to produce and transport rice.
Unforeseen environmental impacts notwithstanding, the scope of the food security problem facing China is nevertheless complicated. China is dependent on imported soybeans as well as pork, both of which are a traditional staple, and one of which — pork — has seen a drawdown in available supply due to the culling of hog herds due to African Swine Fever. While China still has considerable stocks of corn, rice and wheat, and the country has diversified its sources of soybeans, policymakers in Beijing are nonetheless aware that the country remains dependent on importing food. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has warned that unless the country undertakes major agricultural reforms, it could face a food shortfall by the year 2025. The ongoing China-US trade war also compounds food security issues for China, as do the threats posed by an aging population and rapid urbanisation.
And these forces are gradually leading to a shrinking rural labour force, which is a challenge China’s leadership has recognised as a policy priority area. All this, as well as other factors, have directly led to the elevation of food security as a top leadership priority in China. As such, China’s food security has been brought up more and more in recent years, and has been closely linked to the entire country’s national security. Food security is now regularly being listed as a national challenge equal in importance to matters such as national energy security or finance. As Chinese President Xi Jinping declares food security to be a critical “foundation for national security,” the leader understands the constraints within which he is operating as China remains subject to realities beyond the control of its leadership.
Read more about this story here.
China, India & Russia Agree to Improve Multilateral Cooperation
Following a meeting held between diplomats representing China, India and Russia, the foreign affairs agencies of the three countries agreed to speed up multilateral cooperation on a variety of issues. The meeting saw leadership of the three countries commit to aligning policies in order to better deal with the Covid-19 pandemic, economic recovery, terrorism, drug trafficking, organized crime, natural disasters, food security and climate change. Discussions were held digitally as part of the 18th round of talks between the foreign ministers under the Russia-India-China (RIC) format.
In their meeting, the ministers are said to have reiterated a joint commitment toward a multi-polar and rebalanced world based on the principles of “sovereign equality of nations” and “respect for international law.” The wording of the joint communique published following discussions reflected each countries’ interest in approaching contemporary international realities through reform of the multilateral system. In addition, officials from China and Russia reiterated the importance of India to determining the outcome of international affairs while also supporting the country’s aspiration to play a greater role in the United Nations. The meeting also saw ministers of each participant agree to work toward deepening strategic partnership via the BRICS format, and strengthening cooperation along three pillars: political and security cooperation; economy and finance; and cultural exchanges.
Beyond bolstering ties and aligning policies, the ministers sought to exchange views on expanding the RIC trilateral cooperation format into other fields. In this regard, officials sought to reach consensus on how best to prevent an arms race in outer space by stressing the importance of transparency and confidence-building measures. The meeting also saw all participants make a joint declaration for enhancing the long-term sustainability of outer space activities and space operations through the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. Finally, with all three expressing concern over the events unfolding in Afghanistan, officials raised concerns and called for the formation of an inclusive government that represents all the ethnic and political groups in the country.
Read more about this story here.