In Geopolitics This Week
Hamas Launches Attack on Israel, US F-16 Downs Turkish Drone Near Military Base in Syria, Russia Signs Deal for Permanent Naval Base in Abkhazia, and other stories.
Hamas Launches Attack on Israel
The Palestinian militant group Hamas has launched its biggest attack on Israel in years, firing thousands of rockets across Israel and infiltrating gunmen into border towns. Israel has carried out air strikes on Gaza in response and said over 150 Palestinians have died. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed fierce retaliation. Both sides are now calling it war, raising concerns of a severe escalation between the bitter enemies.
The scale and coordination of Hamas' assault has caught Israel off-guard, representing a major intelligence failure. Rocket fire reached as far as Tel Aviv, while gun battles erupted in towns surrounding Gaza. Israel will likely seek significant retaliation to restore deterrence, even at the risk of high civilian casualties. Hamas may feel emboldened by recent clashes with Israel, but a prolonged conflict favours Israel militarily. Regionally, the crisis risks spreading if other groups join, though Hezbollah has so far only issued statements of praise for Hamas.
The crisis creates added challenges for Israel as the attacks began on a holiday when defences were lowered and during political instability as a new government takes shape. Security coordination failures have allowed militants to infiltrate Israeli border towns with relative ease. Politically, Prime Minister Netanyahu seems likely to benefit from Israelis rallying around the flag, while the Israeli Defence Force will have to answer tough questions about how it was caught so off-guard.
Broader regional consequences remain uncertain for now. Escalation often breeds more escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel will hope its strikes on Gaza and defences against rocket fire can restore deterrence, avoiding a descent into all-out war that could bring about broader regional support for Palestine. At the same time, the Israeli response is nonetheless likely to be disproportionate and brutal, presenting a high likelihood that Gaza's rising civilian death toll could instead fuel further Palestinian rage. With tensions already high across the territories, the coming days will prove critical in determining the scale and scope of Israel's response, dubbed Operation Iron Swords.
US F-16 Downs Turkish Drone Near Military Base in Syria
In a significant incident between NATO allies, a United States F-16 fighter jet has shot down a Turkish drone that came within 500 meters of a US military base in northeast Syria. The US called the drone downing self-defence after issuing warnings to Turkey. The shoot-down came after Turkey launched strikes against Kurdish militants in Syria and Iraq following a bombing in Ankara last week. The Turkish government claims the bombers were trained in Syria, which the Syrian Kurds deny.
The incident highlights the risks of escalation from Turkey's campaign against Kurdish forces in Syria — militant groups which the US provides support for. Though avoiding escalation for now, the US has had to balance deterring Turkish actions that could endanger its own troops with preventing a rift with a key regional ally. The shoot-down and US warnings suggest Washington's tolerance for Turkish military actions in Syria remains limited when conducted near US forces.
For Turkey, the drone downing is an embarrassment that could lead it to recalibrate. But President Erdogan still wants a buffer zone in Syria to keep Kurdish forces away from the border. Continued strikes in Syria and Iraq suggest Turkey remains committed to degrading Kurdish capabilities as much as it can. With Russia distracted and the US wanting to avoid a rift with Turkey, conditions favour more Turkish pressure on Syrian Kurds, despite the risks associated with conducting military operations near US forces.
Looking ahead, the risk of further Turkish-US incidents persists given diverging interests in Syria. But an uncontrolled escalation would serve neither side's interests. Both will likely work to contain tensions even as Turkey keeps striking Kurdish assets, avoiding actions that directly endanger US forces. Managing frictions with Turkey remains a delicate balancing act for Washington in Syria.
Russia Signs Deal for Permanent Naval Base in Abkhazia
Russia has reportedly signed an agreement with the breakaway region of Abkhazia to establish a permanent Russian naval base on Abkhazia's Black Sea coast. The base would expand Russia's military footprint in the Black Sea at a time when its Crimea-based fleet is under threat from Ukrainian attacks. Georgia condemned the move, calling it a violation of its sovereignty over what it still considers Georgian territory.
The Port of Ochamchira is strategically located at the mouth of the Dzhurkmur River, just 5.1 nautical miles from Cape Tamysh on the Black Sea coast of Abkhazia. The port's entrance channel stretches approximately 725 metres in length and 50 metres in width, providing access from the sea. The port basin has a depth of 7 meters, while the shipping channel itself is approximately 5.7 meters deep. Ochamchira Port is connected to Abkhazia's railway network and highway system. Recently completed dredging works have enabled Ochamchira Port to accommodate large-tonnage cargo ships with displacements of up to 13,000 tonnes.
The proposed naval base carries significant regional security implications. The Black Sea has re-emerged as a vital geopolitical flashpoint between Russia and NATO amid the Ukraine war. For Russia, the new port will provide strategic depth and partially compensate for the vulnerabilities its Black Sea fleet now faces in occupied Crimea as Ukraine increasingly strikes those forces. For Georgia, the base represents a further infringement by Russia on its territorial integrity. Nevertheless, Russia may seek to solidify its military position regardless of objections if opportunities arise.
There are also naval strategy dimensions to the move. Recent Ukrainian strikes have targeted Russia's Black Sea fleet headquarters and ships based in Crimea. Russia appears to be transferring vessels away from Crimea to ports like Novorossiysk in order to protect them. Abkhazia provides an alternative base reasonably close to Sevastopol but potentially far less exposed. For its part, Ukraine is likely to continue strikes on military infrastructure in Crimea, as it remains a logistical hub for Russia. Ukraine is also set to keep pressuring Russian naval power to retain control of southern shipping lanes.
In the broader context, the base deal aligns with the more confrontational and defiant foreign policy approach Russia has taken since its invasion of Ukraine. Projects like the Black Sea base reinforce Russian interests in its perceived spheres of influence. They also demonstrate Russia's willingness to take advantage of opportunities, disregarding international objections. As the war in Ukraine looks likely to persist, Russia appears set to continue consolidating its regional military positions wherever it can, entrenching its geopolitical influence in the process.