In Geopolitics This Week
Airstrikes in Syria Threaten Stability Amidst Shifting Diplomacy, The EU Agrees to Supply Ukraine with More Ammunition, DU Transfer and Russia's Nuclear Plans Escalate Tensions, and other stories.
Airstrikes in Syria Threaten Stability Amidst Shifting Diplomacy
Recent developments in the Middle East have significant implications for the region and beyond, particularly in terms of geopolitical stability. On the one hand, the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as the reintegration of Syria into the Arab region, could potentially lead to a reduction in tensions and the resolution of long-standing conflicts. On the other hand, the United States military's recent strikes against Iranian-backed militias in Syria could undermine these efforts, potentially leading to further instability.
The recent diplomatic efforts between Saudi Arabia and Iran will have a significant impact on the wider Middle East region. If successful, the normalization of relations between these two countries promises to reduce tensions, change regional power dynamics and potentially lead to the resolution of long-standing conflicts. Additionally, the recent earthquake in Turkey and northern Syria has generated regional support for Syria, which could help to strengthen diplomatic ties between Damascus and other Middle Eastern countries. However, the ongoing tensions between Iran and the US may still pose a significant challenge to regional stability, particularly in Syria.
The US military recently authorized airstrikes against facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria. These strikes come amid heightened tensions between Iran and the US, as the US military is stationed in Syria to counter Iran's influence in the region. While the US has long been involved in the Syrian conflict, supporting rebel groups and carrying out airstrikes against targets throughout the country, the latest outburst of violence could undermine regional efforts to normalize ties with the Syrian government.
As the region continues to grapple with conflicts and geopolitical manoeuvring, it remains to be seen how these developments will affect the wider geopolitical landscape. The US has opposed other countries' normalization of ties with Assad, and the situation remains volatile, with the US, Iran, and their respective allies engaging in a delicate dance of diplomacy and military action. The Middle East is a complex and volatile region with various competing interests, and any misstep could have severe consequences.
The EU Agrees to Supply Ukraine with More Ammunition
The European Union has pledged two billion euros to help Ukraine replenish its ammunition stocks. The decision is a significant step in the bloc's defence strategy marking a major shift in the EU's approach towards joint procurement of 155-millimetre shells. However, the decision has not been without controversy, as member states have debated the details of the procurement plan, including whether to purchase only from European producers and who should negotiate the orders.
The EU's commitment to supporting Ukraine sends a clear message that the bloc is willing to take action to defend its interests and those of its allies. Ukraine has complained that its forces are having to ration firepower. Kiev had told the EU it wants 350,000 shells a month to allow them to launch fresh counter-offensives later in the year. The EU's pledge to deliver one million artillery shells in the next 12 months on top of commitments to replenish EU stocks will be a major boost to Ukraine’s war effort.
Buying weaponry on this scale is a major new step for the EU, which has seen long-standing efforts to work more in unison on defence propelled forward by the war in Ukraine. The initiative may also incentivize European defence firms to increase production capacity, with Brussels saying EU firms need to switch to “war economy mode” after scaling back in the years following the end of the Cold War. However, there are concerns about the supplies of key components such as explosives, and it remains to be seen whether EU countries can share their stockpiles without leaving themselves vulnerable.
The EU has already committed a wide range of military support worth 12 billion euros to Ukraine, with 3.6 billion euros from a joint fund used to help cover the costs. The EU's move towards joint procurement and shared funding represents a significant step forward in the bloc's defence strategy, although there are still challenges to be faced. Nonetheless, the EU's commitment sends a clear message that the bloc is willing to take action to defend its perceived interests and those of its allies.
DU Transfer and Russia's Nuclear Plans Escalate Tensions
Recent announcements from both Russia and the United Kingdom have further escalated the already tense situation between the two countries. The United Kingdom recently confirmed its plans to transfer depleted uranium (DU) rounds to Ukraine, raising concerns from Russian diplomats about the potential for further escalation. In turn, President Vladimir Putin has announced Russia’s intention to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
The transfer of DU rounds to Ukraine is part of the UK's Challenger 2 tanks giveaway and has generated controversy due to the long-term environmental and health risks associated with DU shells. Depleted uranium is a by-product of the release of a radioactive isotope of uranium U-235 used for nuclear power and weapons. DU munitions have a high armour-piercing capability, able to cause significant damage to tanks and armoured vehicles.
In response, Putin stated that Russia is preparing to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, arguing that the US has long deployed similar weapons in allied countries without breaching non-proliferation obligations. The Russian leadership has also denounced the UK's decision to send DU rounds to Ukraine, with Putin and other members of the Russian government continuing to sound warnings of a potential nuclear conflict.
The transfer of DU rounds to Ukraine and the stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus represent a significant escalation in the conflict between NATO and Russia. The international community's response to these developments remains to be seen, and whether credible efforts to deescalate the situation will be made is uncertain. The threat of a direct military confrontation between the two sides appears to be growing, making it crucial to find a peaceful solution to the ongoing conflict.
At this point, Assad is entrenched in power. Despite the dogma of neocons and their ilk, the best option for stability in the middle east is to stop pressuring Assad with empty threats and normalize relations with him. If we are so worried about the IRGC, we could always just bribe Assad with "aid" to force them out of the country. But I'm not terribly worried about the IRGC.