In Geopolitics This Week
Attack on Sevastopol Prompts Russia to Leave and Rejoin Grain Deal, The US Pressures Allies to Join Chip Restrictions Against China, Peace Deal Promises to End the Tigray War, and other stories.
Attack on Sevastopol Prompts Russia to Leave and Rejoin Grain Deal
The Ukrainian military launched a substantial drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea naval base in Sevastopol last week, causing Moscow to exit a UN-mediated grain export deal before rejoining days later.
Russia has accused Ukraine of using the safety corridor outlined in the terms of the grain export deal to launch attacks on the Russian naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea. It remains unclear how much damage the attack has caused as Russian officials claim their forces completely repulsed the attack. Nevertheless, some reports suggest that the Admiral Makarov, a frigate in use as Russia’s current Black Sea flagship, was damaged and possibly disabled.
In response to the attacks, Russia halted its backing of the grain deal and accused Ukraine of violating the agreement by using the Black Sea grain corridor for military operations. Following Moscow’s withdrawal, Ukrainian, Turkish and UN authorities agreed to continue grain shipments to and from Ukraine, thereby undermining the effect of Moscow’s withdrawal. Turkish officials then engaged Moscow in an attempt to restore the deal. Days later, Moscow announced it had changed its position after receiving a number of written guarantees from Ukraine not to use the Black Sea grain corridor for military operations.
At this time, Russia appears either unable or unwilling to reimpose a naval blockade on Ukraine. This is most clearly evidenced by the fact that grain deliveries from Ukraine to Turkey have continued to take place even after Moscow chose to leave the deal. The attack on Sevastopol notwithstanding, Russia looks to be attempting to maintain close ties with Ankara while ensuring good trade relations with partners in Asia, Africa and the Middle East are not undermined by actions in the Black Sea.
The US Pressures Allies to Join Chip Restrictions Against China
The United States is urging its closest allies to follow its lead on restricting the export of advanced semiconductors and related technologies to China, intensifying pressure on chipmakers worldwide. Under new legal frameworks adopted by the US, chipmakers based in the US will have to obtain a license from the Commerce Department to export certain chips that can be used in modern weapons systems. Now, Washington is seeking similar commitments from its allies.
With both economic and military tensions rising between Washington and Beijing, the US is understood to have called on its allies to follow its example and tightly limit sales of advanced semiconductors to China. Tokyo has already begun internal discussions on the issue at Washington's request, with officials reportedly already weighing which restrictions can realistically be adopted by Japan. Elsewhere, the European Union and South Korea are facing similar pressure from Washington, which anticipates that bringing allies on board with the restrictions will make it more challenging for China to acquire advanced semiconductors.
US allies are expected to adopt similar restrictions to the export controls announced by Washington last month. Washington’s decision to restrict Chinese access to advance electronics represented a new escalation in efforts to contain China's growing semiconductor and compute capabilities. Closer coordination on restricting China’s access to these technologies between the US and its allies is bound to make the export controls more effective. Given Washington’s fixation on limiting China’s economic and military power, a deal that covers chip and chip-making tool restrictions on China could soon be signed between the US and its major allies.
Peace Deal Promises to End the Tigray War
The African Union (AU) has announced a peace deal between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces, paving the way for a formal end to hostilities. While the agreement to cease fighting offers the best chance of peace yet, historical grievances, implementation challenges, mistrust and outside actors may yet stand in the way of a lasting peace.
Communications and transport infrastructure have been damaged or destroyed across much of the Tigray region. Now, with a comprehensive peace deal being negotiated, Ethiopian interests will turn to ensuring disarmament, integrating the region within Ethiopia’s federal institutions, and advancing reconstruction efforts. According to the AU statement, Ethiopia’s government and Tigrayan authorities have agreed on an “orderly, smooth and coordinated” disarmament and a “restoration of law and order”, “restoration of services” and allow for “unhindered access” to humanitarian aid.
The agreement is made largely on the Ethiopian government’s terms. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front is obliged under the peace agreement to disarm within 30 days while federal forces occupy Mekelle and take control of airports and other key facilities throughout the Tigray region. Ethiopian troops are expected to take control of the border between the Tigray region and Eritrea to defend against “provocation or incursion,” though little is specified about the precise delineation of the border in question.