In Geopolitics This Week
China Bans Micron Chips in Critical Infrastructure Projects, Ukrainian Sabotage Groups Conduct Attacks in Belgorod Oblast, Drought Threatens Northwest Africa's Harvest Season, and other stories.
China Bans Micron Chips in Critical Infrastructure Projects
China's Cyberspace Administration has implemented a ban on the use of Micron Technology's memory chips in specific infrastructure projects. The ban is based on national security concerns and is a part of the ongoing trade war between the US and China. The decision could have significant implications for sectors such as telecommunications, transport, and finance, as it restricts the use of Micron's products in China's critical information infrastructure. This move reflects a more assertive approach by China's in the technology sector.
The ban is the result of a cybersecurity review conducted by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC). The review, initiated in late March, found that Micron's products posed severe cybersecurity risks to China's critical information infrastructure supply chain and national security. The ruling effectively prohibits the sale of Micron's products to China's key information infrastructure operators, erasing a market that accounted for about 11% of the company's total revenue in 2022. This could benefit other chip manufacturers, such as South Korea's Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as Chinese companies may seek alternative suppliers to fulfil their needs.
The decision has far-reaching implications across sectors such as finance, telecommunications and transport. Micron's memory chips are also utilized in various other industries, including healthcare, energy, manufacturing, and consumer electronics. Chinese companies may now face difficulties in sourcing alternative suppliers, leading to increased costs and potential disruptions in 5G network expansion. In the transport sector, the ban can hinder the development of smart transportation systems, affecting efficiency and innovation in areas like traffic control and autonomous vehicles. In finance, finding suitable alternatives to Micron's chips may pose challenges as well, potentially impacting system performance, reliability, and security.
The geopolitical implications of this ban are significant as it demonstrates China's willingness to utilize legal tools to counter US-imposed technology restrictions. The United States and its allies have been implementing export controls and scrutinizing China's technology sector, leading to a shift in companies' strategies to reduce their exposure to China. The ban serves as a tit-for-tat response that will make investment decisions more difficult for all chipmakers. US-based firms are now more likely to face investigations and restrictions as China prioritizes data sovereignty.
Ukrainian Sabotage Groups Conduct Attacks in Belgorod Oblast
In recent events, two Ukrainian-backed sabotage groups, the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, have conducted attacks inside Russia's Belgorod Oblast. These operations involved the seizure of Kozinka, a settlement near the border, and an incursion into Grayvoron, a settlement around six miles inside Russian territory. The use of US-made vehicles in the raids has prompted US officials to remind their Ukrainian counterparts that the use of US equipment in attacks inside Russia is not condoned.
Russia swiftly responded to the cross-border incursions, successfully repelling the attackers and eliminating the threat they posed. In a display of military power, Russia deployed helicopters, jets and artillery, resulting in the reported deaths of over 70 militants during what appears to have been an intense 24-hour battle. A video from the operation shows Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers dropping high-explosive bombs at a low altitude on a target near the border with Ukraine. The challenging conditions of delivering unguided weaponry at such a low altitude in the heat of battle highlight the desperate measures taken by the Russian military to counter the armed incursion into its own territory.
Though Ukraine has denied any role in the incursion, the biggest cross-border raid into Russia since the war began was almost certainly coordinated with Ukraine’s armed forces as it prepares to attempt to recapture territory. The incursions likely aimed to tie down Russian forces in the area, demonstrate that the war has reached Russian territory, and embarrass Russian President Vladimir Putin. As Ukraine plans a major counteroffensive to reclaim occupied territory, its forces are likely pursuing a strategy that seeks to divert and stretch Russian forces, forcing them to send reinforcements and expose vulnerable points along the border.
The effectiveness of Ukrainian sabotage and partisan operations conducted behind Russian lines present a significant challenge to Russia's security services. It is evident that Ukraine has achieved increasing success with such operations in Russia's rear, leading to concerns in Russia over the lack of a capability to prevent such incidents. Discussions have reportedly taken place regarding the expansion of powers for existing Russian entities such as the Special Rapid Response Unit (SOBR), the Federal Security Service (FSB), the Ministry of Defense, and the National Guard (Rosgvardiya) to counter these threats. There are even said to be considerations of reviving the old counterintelligence organization known as SMERSH, with the aim of infiltrating occupied territories in Ukraine.
Drought Threatens Northwest Africa's Harvest Season
Severe drought conditions in Northwest Africa's Maghreb region pose a significant threat to the upcoming summer harvest season and exacerbate the already arid environment. The region, encompassing countries such as Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, is highly dependent on agriculture, which accounts for a significant portion of their economies. With limited rainfall and drained groundwater, poor crop yields seem inevitable, which could lead to political instability, social unrest, and economic turbulence.
The Middle East and North Africa region is recognized as the most water-stressed area globally, with agriculture consuming 85% of its freshwater resources. Recent reports from the European Union's Science Hub and the EU Joint Research Center's Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) bulletin emphasize the severe impact of prolonged and intensified drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula and the Maghreb. In March, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia were among the countries that experienced below-average rainfall this year. Although there was some rainfall in Morocco and Algeria in May, it occurred too late in the growing season to significantly alleviate the impact on cereal grain crops. Furthermore, there are large areas of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia that are experiencing vegetation stress due to soil moisture deficits.
The drought in the Maghreb has had a severe impact on wheat and barley crops. Insufficient rainfall during the growing season is anticipated to lead to significantly reduced harvests this summer, increasing the need for grain imports and straining the economies of these countries. The drought coincided with the flowering stage of wheat and barley crops, heightening concerns of extensive crop failure during the upcoming harvest season. Consequently, North African nations will face scarcity of grain for bread production and elevated grain prices due to limited availability. Morocco and Tunisia, experiencing minimal rainfall during winter and spring, will be particularly affected.
The severe drought and its consequences will likely amplify anti-government sentiment and heighten the risk of protests across the region. Governments will have to rely more heavily on external partners to meet their grain needs. Farmers and agricultural workers, who are directly impacted by the diminished crop yields, may bear the brunt of the socio-economic repercussions. The governments of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia are expected to allocate financial resources to mitigate the effects on their citizens. However, as water and food rationing become necessary, public frustration could escalate, especially given pre-existing challenges such as the cost of living and political controversies.