In Geopolitics This Week
India’s Foreign Policy at a Crossroads in Afghanistan, Quantifying Power Between Nations: Gross vs Net, France Recalls Ambassadors to the US & Australia, and other stories.
Monday, September 13th
Zapad 2021 Military Exercise Begins
The 2021 edition of the Zapad military exercise kicked off last weekend as a coalition of countries conducted mock operations at fourteen practice ranges across Russia and Belarus. Armenia, Belarus, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Russia brought together their forces as they begun the main phase of the joint strategic exercise in Nizhny Novgorod. Zapad — Russian for “west”— is part of a rotating cycle of quadrennial drills scheduled to conclude on September 16th.
The drills are said to involve as many as 12,800 Russian and Belarusian military personnel, and will include up to 140 tanks, 110 artillery systems, as well as numerous rocket launchers, aircraft and helicopters. The first phase will see the Belarusian and Russian forces closely coordinate their mobilisation and deployment actions in a scenario simulating the opening days of a NATO invasion. The second phase then involves utilising the full spectrum of Russian countermeasures to degrade and defeat the hypothetical NATO offensive.
These large-scale exercises have seen the deployment of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) such as the Uran-9. The Uran-9 and Nerekhta robots were for the first time being used within regular forces formations at the Zapad-2021 military exercise. These UGVs are said to have been used for clearing minefields in tandem with engineering units, and were supported by a laser tactical system which detects and suppresses reconnaissance and observation equipment in tanks, armoured vehicles and infantry firearms. And though still unconfirmed, the upcoming drills may even include the very capable S-400 missile defence systems.
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India’s Foreign Policy at a Crossroads in Afghanistan
India has for years put its faith and confidence in the now former Ashraf Ghani government in Kabul while rivals China and Pakistan made overtures toward the Taliban. The result today looks to mean that India’s rivals are now certain to advance their interests and influence in the country, while New Delhi will be left out in the cold, forced to make some clear-eyed choices with the Taliban now in power. The choice of whether or not to recognise the Taliban will define the kind of relationship India can enjoy with Afghanistan.
Bluntly put, India’s losses in Afghanistan are huge. New Delhi invested more than $3 billion into development and reconstruction projects in the country since 2001. The development assistance provided by India was one of Afghanistan’s most significant sources of foreign investment over the past twenty years. Throughout this time, New Delhi provided scholarships, food assistance, and sent technicians to help restore Afghanistan’s crippled power grid. But the reality on the ground today means that these investments were lost as the Taliban swept into power.
All this means that in the near-term, India will struggle to protect its assets in Afghanistan. New Delhi could move to improve relations with Iran and Russia, thereby opening channels to the Taliban without dealing with the regime directly, and in that way attempt to secure its fragile investments. Long-term, decisions must be made that will determine India’s strategy toward Afghanistan going forward. Giving the Taliban too much legitimacy could cause problems for India’s long-term struggle to counter terrorist groups operating in Kashmir, but no communication at all will only extend the influence of China and Pakistan.
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Tuesday, September 14th
Turkey Intensifies Attacks on Kurdish Forces in Iraq and Syria
The Turkish army, together with allied militia factions, have recently increased their attacks against Kurdish forces in Iraq and Syria. Turkish airstrikes have targeted prominent field commanders in an effort to disrupt Kurdish command structures, while at the same time, Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) factions have increased their military readiness, mobilising additional forces to the frontlines, and launching artillery and missile attacks at areas held by Kurdish militia.
Amidst those targeted are troops in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which is a militia group backed by the US-led international coalition. The Turkish army has adopted a new approach in dealing with SDF influence in Northern Syria and Northern Iraq, primarily by relying on drone strikes to target prominent SDF commanders. Since mid-August, Turkish conventional and proxy forces have also targeted areas in eastern Aleppo as well as the outskirts of Ain Issa in northern Raqqa.
In Iraq, Turkish forces are reported to have struck Kurdistan Workers Party positions close to the border with Turkey, where Turkish artillery and assault helicopters struck a number of targets in the Heftanin mountain region. The air strikes were said to have focused on disrupting the delivery of supplies to Kurdish militias, but these often end up destroying the agricultural land on which people rely on for food.
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Greek Efforts at Balancing Against a Rising Turkey
Greece has taken several important steps over the last few years to modernise its armed forces. The country faces the most pressing threats in its near-abroad from Turkey, which has drastically boosted its capabilities and now operates in many ways against Greek interests. To counter Turkish naval power, Greece is undergoing a naval modernisation program of its own in order to secure a strategic advantage in the region.
The modernisation program complements diplomatic efforts undertaken by successive Greek governments, working to counter key Turkish naval advancements. Athens has invested considerable time and resources into fostering a regional bloc to contain an aggressive Turkey, and these efforts are bearing fruit with Greece signing defence cooperation agreements with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states. Closer cooperation has already led to significant deals, including a US $1.65 billion defence contract with Israel.
Military deals have also been accompanied by increased diplomatic activity. In February, Greece held the first Philia Forum with Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, France, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, in which the seven countries issued a joint communique about regional peace, stability and prosperity. On top of that, Athens held the annual Iniochos 2021 military exercises together with Cyprus, Israel, the United States, and the UAE. In effect, recent years have seen Greece unite a coalition of states worried about a resurgent Turkey with an expansionist agenda. But Greece’s deepening engagement with and reliance on other players in the Eastern Mediterranean may carry its own risks.
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Wednesday, September 15th
Large NATO Military Exercise to Take Place Around the Scottish Coast
Faslane is a bay near the village of Garelochhead in Scotland which today forms the main part of the UK’s Naval Base Clyde. Over the coming weeks, the base is set to host military units from Canada, Belgium, France, Germany, Latvia, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain and the United States, as they together embark on the largest military exercise in Europe until the end of the month. These ten NATO nations will join the hosts in taking part in Joint Warrior 212, which, together with Exercise Dynamic Mariner 21, seek to provide a serious evaluation of maritime operations in preparation for NATO Response Force 2022.
The exercises are expected to include up to 25 warships, three submarines, over 30 aircraft and about 6,750 personnel. On the agenda for Joint Warrior 212 and Exercise Dynamic Mariner 21 are mine-hunting and amphibious landing operations, with aerial cover provided by roughly 30 aircraft operating from RAF Lossiemouth and Prestwick Airport. A statement released by the UK Ministry of Defence outlined the scenario of the exercise will mirror “a broad range of crisis and conflict situations which could realistically be experienced in real-world operations.”
Faslane was initially chosen as location for a naval base during the Second World War, after which it become an instrumental element of British military strategy during the Cold War because of its geographic position. The naval base is located in a geographic space which forms a bastion on the navigable Gare Loch and Firth of Clyde on the west coast of Scotland. This position allows for fast and undetected access through the North Channel to the North Atlantic via the strategically significant GIUK gap. Today, the naval base at Faslane still houses the nuclear submarines which make up the UK’s entire nuclear deterrent.
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Quantifying Power Between Nations: Gross vs Net
The need to accurately estimate power remains a central element of international politics and statecraft. But as analysts measure and estimate the capabilities of international actors, many tend to evaluate countries’ power using broad indicators of economic and military resources, such as GDP or military spending. New research suggests that this way of tallying wealth and military assets without deducting for the costs of operating them is a flawed way of estimating power.
Closer analysis of historical rivalries reveals that this kind of ‘gross power’ approach is an inaccurate interpretation, and that instead, analysts ought to rely more on a ‘net power resources’ approach for insights into the current geopolitical balance of power. A gross power assessment can lead one to believe that American unipolarity is enduring and that China and other nations would not rival American supremacy in the coming decades. But an analysis of net power resources indicates that China already harnesses significantly greater net power relative to the United States than the Soviet Union did in the 20th Century, and that if left unchecked, could in time come to significantly shorten the power disparity between the two.
Within this context of the US-China rivalry, net power assessments indicate that the United States will remain unsurpassed. A net power resources approach offers additional insight into trends of the global balance of power and in these terms, the US faces a serious geopolitical challenge going forward. While China is unlikely to equal the United States according to net power evaluations, historical case-studies indicate that a nation can represent a threatening challenge to the hegemonic power even if between them there exists a large disparity in net power resources.
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Thursday, September 16th
Australia, the UK & the US Enter Into Indo-Pacific Security Pact
Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States have announced a significant new security pact which will see Canberra on the receiving end of many advanced US technologies, including nuclear-powered submarines. The security arrangement, labelled AUKUS, professes its intention as that of defending the three countries’ “shared interests in the Indo-Pacific” and is one of the most significant security arrangements between the three since World War Two.
The agreement is centred around boosting military capabilities and, without specifying so in detail, is primarily aimed at containing the spread of Chinese influence. The agreement covers security cooperation and technology transfers in key areas such as artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, long range strike capabilities, and the development of underwater systems. It also includes a nuclear component expressed as the development of nuclear defence infrastructure, the most significant of which is the plan to build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia. It will be interesting to note just how Australia, a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, will find a way to field these nuclear-powered submarines without being in contravention to its treaty obligations.
The deal drew the ire of adversaries and allies alike. China's government sources are quoted as saying that this deepened security cooperation focused on the Indo-Pacific between the US, UK, and Australia “gravely undermines regional peace and stability, aggravates the arms race and hurts the international non-proliferation efforts.” Allies too were left bemused as Australia notified France that it would end its contract to build 12 conventional submarines. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian expressed “total incomprehension” at the move from Canberra to purchase US-made nuclear-powered submarines instead. He went on to say that the agreement is a “a stab in the back,” for which France will be “demanding explanations from both sides.”
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Tit-for-Tat Missile Tests on the Korean Peninsula
The Korean Peninsula has seen a large number of missile tests accompany a flurry of diplomatic activity this week. North Korea tested new types of missiles as the US, South Korea and Japan held trilateral talks to discuss nuclear diplomacy with the North and, similarly, as Chinese officials were in Seoul to conduct talks with South Korean officials, South Korea made its first successful launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
North Korea demonstrated the significant strides made under its missile program as Pyongyang tested a new type of cruise missile that is said to have travelled almost 1,000 miles to its target. North Korean media described the new missile as a “strategic weapon of great significance,” and if reports are to be believed, the new cruise missile capability will allow Pyongyang to strike Japan and other distant targets in the region. Cruise missiles that fly at low altitudes are difficult to pick up on radar, and these types of missiles are not covered under the UN sanctions regime on North Korea’s missile program. If indeed Pyongyang has an effective long-range cruise missile at its disposal, the strategic calculations of many regional actors will have to account for this new reality.
Seoul too has taken an active approach to missile development following the lifting of restrictions over South Korea’s missile development agreed with the United States in May. The most notable test conducted by South Korea was unquestionably the successful test-launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile. The achievement means that South Korea is only the eighth naval power in the world capable of launching ballistic missiles from submarines. Seoul says that its new non-nuclear ballistic missiles are intended to target heavily fortified positions deep in North Korean territory. To bolster its missile capabilities, South Korea is now also testing an advanced land-based ballistic missile, a new air-launched missile, and has made significant advances on a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile.
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Friday, September 17th
China Developing a Thorium-fuelled Nuclear Reactor
At the end of August, China announced the completion of its first thorium-fuelled molten-salt nuclear reactor. With the construction efforts for the unusual nuclear reactor in the Gobi Desert now winding down, China plans to begin conducting tests, and is poised to test a nuclear reactor powered by thorium before the end of September.
If the upcoming tests succeed, China will be able to proceed with the construction of a second, far larger reactor capable of generating electricity for over 100,000 homes. Beijing could then position itself as an important exporter of a unique energy resource, leveraging its advantages in energy generation for decades. Moreover, what makes thorium reactors somewhat special compared to uranium reactors is that thorium reactors do not need to be built near significant water storage facilities. Unlike conventional uranium power plants which need a significant water supply in order to cool the reactors, the molten salts serve as a coolant for thorium reactors, which means that these reactors could be installed in isolated and arid regions.
If the Chinese efforts are successful, Beijing will be well positioned to meet its climate-change goals as molten-salt technology promises to be “safer” and “greener” than conventional uranium reactors. On top of that, as Beijing continually strives for energy independence, the early adaptation of a potentially ground-breaking nuclear technology may deliver the energy that China’s development goals require without an overreliance on outside partners.
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France Recalls Ambassadors to the US & Australia
France has reacted with fury to the recent announcement of AUKUS — the Indo-Pacific security pact signed between Australia, the UK & the US this week — and announced that it was recalling French ambassadors to both the United States and Australia. The furore is directed at both allies after Australia scrapped a massive contract for the purchase of conventional French submarines in favour of nuclear-powered submarines built with by the United States.
Earlier in the day, a top French diplomat was quoted as saying that French relations with the United States are now in a state of “crisis.” Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that the French decision to withdraw ambassadors from allied countries for consultations was justified by the “exceptional seriousness of the announcements” made by Canberra and Washington. Le Drian also went on to characterise the announcement to supply US-made nuclear-powered submarines in lieu of French conventional ones to Australia as “unacceptable behaviour between allies and partners.”
For Paris, the abrupt cancellation of its conventional submarine deal with Australia is a betrayal of a contractual obligation agreed upon many years ago, made with little notice and consideration for French interests, and therefore a complete diplomatic humiliation. French officials are also concerned about the fact that the now scrapped deal was build upon joint commitments focused on both nations working together in the Pacific, leaving future cooperation in doubt. French diplomatic sources have said that Australian officials never mentioned to France its intention to abandon its contract in order to shift to nuclear-powered submarines, including as recently as during a June meeting between Macron and Morrison.
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