In Geopolitics This Week
China and ASEAN to Renew Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, China Announces Peace Plan at the Munich Security Conference, Russia Suspends Participation in New START Treaty, and other stories.
China and ASEAN to Renew Code of Conduct for the South China Sea
China and Indonesia have pledged to work with Southeast Asian nations to speed up talks on a code of conduct for the South China Sea. The South China Sea is vital for trade and rich in resources, but also a source of tension among several countries that claim parts of it. The foreign ministers of China and Indonesia said they would cooperate with ASEAN members to follow the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC) in the South China Sea and advance consultations on the Code of Conduct. These rules aim to regulate how nations behave in the disputed area.
The DOC was agreed upon by ASEAN and China in 2002 as a non-binding framework for peaceful dispute resolution in the region. However, the agreement was not effectively implemented as regional powers have sought to cement their claims on the resource-rich waters. Indonesia, as the current ASEAN chair, may be able to revive regional talks for the South China Sea code of conduct. However, it may be challenging to reach a quick resolution given the ongoing conflicts between China and other claimants in Southeast Asia.
During his recent visit to Indonesia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed the need for both countries to promote peace and stability in the region. He also agreed with his Indonesian counterpart Retno Marsudi to expedite flagship projects under Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative, such as the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway. This project, which is backed by China, is Indonesia’s first high-speed railway and is expected to start operations in July after facing construction delays.
China Announces Peace Plan at the Munich Security Conference
The 2023 Munich Security Conference was marked by discussions about the ongoing war in Ukraine. NATO leaders pledged to continue supporting Ukraine militarily and discussed ways to bolster its defence capabilities and resources. Meanwhile, other powers called for a peaceful solution to the conflict and urged all parties involved to engage in dialogue.
China made a surprising move by announcing a peace initiative to end the war, while Brazil’s President suggested a “Peace Club” of countries, including India and Turkey, that would help resolve the crisis. However, the US and China remained at odds, as their senior diplomats could not reach a consensus during their meeting at the Conference.
Beijing’s 12-point peace plan proposed a cease-fire, respect for sovereignty, no use or threat of use of weapons of mass destruction, reliable global supply chains for energy and grains, and an end to unilateral sanctions. However, it did not address the issue of territorial integrity, which is crucial for Ukraine. Critics argued that China’s plan overlooked Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory and did not outline a plan for withdrawal. Nevertheless, it marks an initial step by Beijing towards more meaningful diplomacy in the coming months.
The Conference highlighted that the war in Ukraine remains a contentious issue for many global powers. While some states have offered military assistance to Ukraine, others have put forward peace initiatives that may not be feasible or effective. In particular, China’s emerging role as a mediator has come under scrutiny due to Beijing’s continued trade and diplomatic relations with Russia.
Russia Suspends Participation in New START Treaty
The only nuclear arms control agreement between Russia and the United States is at risk. Russia has announced that it is suspending its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which was signed in 2010 and set a limit of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 delivery vehicles, as well as imposed verification and transparency measures, for each party to the agreement.
The suspension of New START does not imply an immediate change in nuclear risks. Last year, Russia already ceased participating in a bilateral consultative panel and permitting inspections of its nuclear facilities, and has accused the United States of doing the same. However, it would carry significant implications if Russia also ceased exchanging information and data on its nuclear activities and movements. This could lead to a new nuclear arms race where both Russia and the United States increase their nuclear arsenals rapidly.
There is still a possibility that New START could be reinstated in the future as the treaty is still valid and Russia has not withdrawn from it fully. However, it is uncertain what conditions Russia would need to re-join the treaty. Putin has stated that the nuclear capabilities of other NATO members, such as the UK and France, should be considered as part of the treaty. Putin has also stated that Russia will not conduct new nuclear tests unless the US does so first.
For over 50 years, the two largest nuclear powers have agreed to limit their nuclear weapons development and deployment. A collapse of New START would mark the termination of an era of bilateral nuclear disarmament agreements. It would also open up a more complex scenario that will require trilateral engagement between China, Russia and the United States in dealing with various technologies and security issues that make it difficult to achieve effective nuclear arms control.