In Geopolitics This Week
Hungary Signs Major Gas Deal with Russia's Gazprom, Greece Secures Mutual Defence Agreement with France, North Korea Joins Hypersonic Missile Race, and other stories.
Monday, September 27th
German Elections Bring the Country to the Centre
Results from the German Federal Election indicate that the Social Democrats (SPD) will narrowly beat the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). With no party securing enough seats for a majority, the weeks ahead will see attempts by both mainstream parties to form a government. While the composition of Germany’s next government is still an unknown, there are already some conclusions that can be drawn from the outcome of the federal election which just took place.
It was not long after polling closed that the leaders of both the SDP and CDU claimed they were ready to take up the chancellorship of Germany. The confidence of both Olaf Scholz and Armin Laschet was justified, as both leaders are well-positioned to take up the role. Because Germany’s two major parties are locked in a close race, support from either the Greens or the Free Democratic Party to either mainstream party would be enough to secure a majority in the Bundestag.
The results indicate that the CDU is on track for its worst result since the party’s founding in 1945. The right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany failed to garner enough votes to be part of any discussions over the formation of a new government. The left-wing party Die Linke may end up below the 5 percent threshold needed to sit in the Bundestag, while the Greens appear to have fallen short of ambitions. The formation of a new government in Europe’s largest economy will be keenly watched internationally, and may present turns in German policy abroad.
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Hungary Signs Major Gas Deal with Russia's Gazprom
As temperatures fall and natural gas prices surge across Europe, Hungary has sought to secure a long-term energy deal with Russia. The deal was penned at the Hungarian Foreign Ministry, and will see Gazprom supply natural gas to Hungary for the next 15 years. Hungary's foreign minister has described the deal as a flexible one, stating that Hungary may after 10 years exercise the option to renegotiate the amount the country purchases.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto insisted that the agreement is vital to Hungary’s national security. At the same time, Szijjarto accused Ukraine of interfering in Hungarian internal affairs after Kyiv called the deal a "purely political, economically unreasonable decision." The agreement which secures the transit of Russian gas via Ukrainian pipelines is coming to an end, and so Ukraine stands to lose millions in transit payments. Russia has been able to achieve this by shifting the transit of its gas away from Ukraine and to the Nord Stream, Nord Stream 2, and TurkStream pipelines.
Hungary has also made investments in diversifying its energy imports and will be happy to secure gas supplies as prices soar and winter approaches. The deal, going into effect October 1, promises deliveries via Serbia and Austria. While the pricing of gas under the agreement has not been made public, Szijjarto described the price as "much more favourable" than the previous 1996 deal. Russia has been a long-time supplier of gas to Hungary, and the new agreement with Gazprom means that the energy relationship is set to continue until at least 2036.
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Tuesday, September 28th
Russia Offers its Central Asian Bases to the United States
In what seems a very strange move, reporting from the Wall Street Journal indicates that Russian president Vladimir Putin raised the possibility of hosting US forces within Russian bases in Central Asia. The idea is said to have been floated when US President Biden met Putin in June earlier this year in Geneva. Whether the offer is serious is unknown, but the fact that US officials are willing to discuss the idea demonstrates the critical role Moscow will play in the region in the years to come.
According to recent reports, there is some substance to the idea. The Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley is said to have discussed the proposal with his Russian counterpart in a meeting in Helsinki last week. The Russian side is said to have been “noncommittal” to the idea so far, and a US readout of the meeting helps little in clarifying whether discussions on such an arrangement had any substance.
Russia has several key military bases in Central Asia. The two most significant Russian military installations in the region are the Kant Air Base east of Bishkek, and several facilities in Tajikistan (based mostly in Dushanbe and Bokhtar). The military facilities in Tajikistan are one of Russia’s largest foreign bases, housing roughly 7,000 active personnel. Russia cannot be dismissed when approaching Central Asia, a reality Washington has admitted as US officials appear ready to engage Russia as an element in a wider approach to the region.
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Tajikistan Anticipating Taliban Infiltration From Afghanistan
Tajikistan shares a very long border with Afghanistan stretching for more than 1,400 kilometres. As the Taliban rapidly retook lands in northern Afghanistan, Tajikistan had been on high alert weeks before Kabul was taken on August 15. Dushanbe has been unique from its regional neighbours in that the country has maintained outspoken criticism of the Taliban, and still maintains a hostile stance toward its southern neighbour.
Now officials in Dushanbe are sounding the alarm about reports of Taliban-aligned Tajik militants making plans to cross the border into Tajikistan. A Tajik official has said that Tajik authorities are reviewing information regarding infiltration prepartions from northern Afghanistan reportedly being undertaken by militant groups just across the border. Among the groups suspected of a role in the plans is Jamaat Ansarullah, a militant group which is banned in Tajikistan and branded as a terrorist organisation. Tajik officials say they are monitoring the border carefully and that their forces are “prepared to deal with them.”
As Taliban forces advanced over recent weeks, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has reacted by deploying an additional 20,000 military personnel to help guard the country’s border with Afghanistan. In addition, Tajikistan has also conducted military drills with Russia and other members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Tajikistan maintains a policy of support for the Tajik minorities living in Afghanistan, and argues that their rights are not being upheld under Taliban rule. Such an approach to Afghanistan is unlikely to sit well with the new leaders in Kabul, and the two are likely to continue to posture their forces along the border in the name of security.
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Wednesday, September 29th
Greece Secures Major Defence Agreement with France
Greece has announced a major defence agreement with France. The deal involves the purchase of six to eight French-built warships by Greece, and is accompanied by a perhaps more significant strategic defence partnership with France. The agreement seals a defence agreement between the two countries, and is the latest step in a military build-up for Greece in balancing agianst Turkey. Both leaders emphasized the value of the partnership in terms of deepened European defence cooperation, and made note of the Sahel, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the Balkans as areas where joint military action could take place.
Included in the agreement is a $5bn arms deal for three Belharra frigates and three Gowind corvettes, with an option for Greece to purchase one more of each. Delivery of the warships is expected by 2026, with the first frigate estimated to arrive as early as 2024. On top of that, Athens is also expected to make a purchase of six Rafale fighter jets in the near future. But what will allay Greek fears more than the military assets purchased as part of the deal is the wording of Article 2 of the agreement, within which is specified a mutual defence assistance clause in the event of attack on one of the two countries.
The deal significantly alters the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean. Now, Greece is better shielded against threats from Turkey, and will therefore be able to more effectively deter Turkey. The vessels Greece is to receive are cutting edge technology weapons as well, able strike targets at distances of roughly 200km. But the agreement is much more than just an arms sale, the language of the agreement stipulated that it is a deal which is strategic in nature. Greece is now backed by major nuclear-capable power which is a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
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North Korea Joins Hypersonic Missile Race
North Korea has announced a successful conclusion to its first public test launch of a hypersonic missile. A test of the Hwasong-8 missile is said to have been conducted by the Academy of Defense Science on Tuesday, and the missile is reported to have been fired from North Korea’s east coast towards the Sea of Japan. Hypersonic missiles are very difficult to track and intercept, so if North Korea succeeds in developing a hypersonic missile, the country could outmatch most regional missile defences.
The Hwasong-8 missile is said to have met the technical targets of its test, which included the guiding manoeuvrability and gliding flight of hypersonic warhead. While hypersonic missile capability would be a massive boost to Pyongyang, the Hwasong-8 is likely at a very early stage of development, and will likely take time to be developed into a deployed and operational weapon. Nevertheless, North Korea is steadily improving its missile capabilities, as well as its ability to fire from mobile launch platforms.
If North Korea is successful in developing a hypersonic missile, Pyongyang would be in possession of a weapon that can change the strategic landscape on the Korean Peninsula because it could outmatch the various missile defence systems currently deployed by South Korea, Japan and the United States. Moreover, hypersonic weapon technologies are at the forefront of military research by major military powers. China, Russia, and the US are all developing their own hypersonic missiles, such a weapon in Pyongyang’s hands could shift strategic calculations across the region for all major and minor players.
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Thursday, September 30th
Serbia and Kosovo Agree to Ease Border Tensions
For the last ten days, Kosovo and Serbia have been embroiled in another diplomatic spat. Kosovo has reportedly begun stopping vehicles with Serbian registration plates from entering the country, while at the same time accusing Serbia of carrying out similar practices. But now tensions appear to have been eased as Serbia and Kosovo, together with representatives from the EU, have reached an agreement to resolve the dispute.
Already poor relations between the two countries took a turn for the worse earlier this month when Kosovo reportedly began requiring Serbian drivers to purchase temporary license plates in order to cross the border. Pristina apparently did this in response to similar actions by Serbia. The move caused anger amongst ethnic Serb communities, some of which are said to have blocked the provisional border in protest. Pristina responded by deploying its special forces at the Jarinje and Brnjak border crossings, which prompted Belgrade to put armoured vehicles at the border area.
The spat comes as relations between the two appeared to be thawing in recent months. While Serbia continues to reject the right to statehood for Kosovo, the two have been involved in EU-mediated talks aimed at normalising relations since March 2020. Both Belgrade and Pristina hope to join the EU in the future and have undertaken concrete steps to resolve some of the differences corroding relations. The two have already reached agreement on deals relating to trade, freedom of movement, and the mutual recognition of academic institutions.
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India Building Strategic Tunnel Between Kashmir and Ladakh
India is undertaking a grand construction project in the Himalayas. In an effort to create a land bridge between Ladakh and Kashmir Valley, New Delhi hopes to alleviate logistical difficulties in supplying a remote region with increasing geopolitical significance. Hundreds of people are now drilling tunnels and building bridges to connect the Kashmir Valley with Ladakh, a strategically significant region which borders Pakistan and China which currently depends on air supplies.
Officials say that a tunnel 6.5 kilometres in length has already been completed, with three more expected to be constructed under the project. The longest tunnel will be roughly 14 kilometres long, and will bypass the Zojila pass in connecting Sonamarg with Ladakh. Indian military planners stress that the project is extremely important for Ladakh, and once completed will afford New Delhi logistics flexibility on top of operational and strategic mobility.
India has prioritised building infrastructure in border states and union territories in the wake of the ongoing standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh. New Delhi is determined to transform its armed forces in remote regions into self-sufficient units. To accomplish this, the country is looking to build tunnels and bridges in these remote parts of the country. Once completed, the tunnel network will allow India to more effectively transfer troops and arms to remote parts of the country throughout the year.
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Friday, October 1st
Turkey Keen to Deepen Ties with Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi this week. The entirety of the meeting was held behind closed doors, but both sides have made statements alluding to a broad range of issues being under discussion. The meeting comes as Ankara and Washington continue to bicker and disagree on a range of issues. Turkey suspects US involvement in a 2016 coup attempt, as well as holds resentment for Washington’s overt support for Kurdish armed militia groups.
Erdogan said after the meeting with his Russian counterpart that they both discussed cooperation on military and civilian projects. Among the areas of mutual interest recognised by both leaders were the construction of new nuclear plants, submarines, and space innovation. On top of that, Turkey expressed its intention to go ahead with the purchase of another S-400 missile defence system from Russia, much to the chagrin of the United States. When asked about the purchase of the Russian-made missile system, Erdogan said there will be "no step back" from the purchase of the Russian-made S-400 missiles.
Erdogan has had his dissatisfaction with the new American presidency be heard, with the issue of support for Kurdish forces a considerable sticking point between NATO allies. At the same time, Turkey’s armed forces are also involved in fighting in northern Syria, where the rebel-held province of Idlib — propped up by Turkish regular and mercenary forces — is under assault from Syrian government forces supported by Russia.
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Iran Holds Military Exercise near Border with Azerbaijan
Iranian ground forces have launched a military exercise in the north-west of the country near its border with Azerbaijan. Tehran will be putting on a display of military capabilities as the country grows increasingly sceptical of Baku for its ties to Turkey and Israel. Azerbaijan has been armed in recent years by Israel and Turkey and this has caused unease in Tehran, which has demanded the withdrawal of “Sunni jihadists” from the region.
Artillery, drones and helicopters will all be called upon to participate in the drills which Iran says are intended for assessing combat readiness. Iran and Azerbaijan share a border roughly 700 kilometres long and have typically maintained good relations. Explaining the prompt exercises near the border, Iranian General Kiyumar Heydari has said that while Iran respects positive “neighbourly relations” with Azerbaijan, the country will not tolerate “Zionist regime elements and Islamic State terrorists in the region.” Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev expressed surprise at the military exercise, questioning why the drills are being conducted so close to the border.
Azerbaijan has strengthened their military ties with Israel in recent years, and this has changed calculations in Tehran. Israeli-built high-tech drones are dramatically boosting Azerbaijan’s military capabilities, even helping Azerbaijan to swiftly overcome Armenian forces in the recent conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. But tensions between Baku and Tehran are also complicated by the operation of a vital border passage running from Iran to Armenia. Azerbaijan has angered Iran by detaining Iranian truck drivers as they deliver goods to Armenia.
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