In Geopolitics This Week
Iran and Israel Conduct Retaliatory Strikes, Armenia Agrees to Return Villages to Azerbaijan, Chad Joins Niger in Demanding US Troop Withdrawal, and other stories.
Iran and Israel Conduct Retaliatory Strikes
On Monday, Iran launched a large-scale, telegraphed attack on Israel, employing around 300 drones and missiles launched from multiple locations, including Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon. The strike targeted several key Israeli military assets, with the Nevatim airbase, which houses advanced F-35 fighter jets, being one of the primary targets. This attack was a direct response to Israel's strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus last week, an action that Iran viewed as a clear violation of international law and the principles of diplomatic immunity.
Iran's meticulous planning and execution of the retaliatory strike involved a significant level of coordination and communication with regional actors. Two days prior to the attack, Iranian officials informed several Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, about the impending operation. This advance warning served multiple purposes, including allowing these nations to prepare their airspace for the drones and missiles, and facilitating the sharing of intelligence with the United States and Israel. The shared information, which included real-time radar tracking data on the incoming threats, enabled a coordinated defence that ultimately resulted in the successful interception of most of the drones and missiles.
Iran's choice to initiate the attack with drones, followed by progressively more advanced weapons such as cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, reflects a calculated approach to escalation management. By deliberately leaking its plans and commencing the strike with the use of drones, Iran sought to signal its capability and intent to retaliate, while also providing a measure of plausible deniability and reducing the risk of immediate escalation. This measured escalation was designed to demonstrate Iran's seriousness in responding to the attack on its embassy, while also leaving room for de-escalation and avoiding an all-out war with Israel and its allies.
Israel chose to respond with limited retaliatory strikes on Friday. These strikes targeted Iranian military assets located in the cities of Isfahan and Tabriz, as well as air defence positions in southern Syria. While the scale of Israel's response was relatively small compared to the Iranian attack, it nonetheless served as a clear signal of Israel's readiness and willingness to respond to Iranian strikes. In the immediate aftermath, Iranian officials adopted a measured and pragmatic approach, downplaying the impact of the attack and the likelihood of further retaliation. The muted reaction from Iranian officials suggests a recognition of the need to manage the risk of escalation and to avoid a spiral of tit-for-tat attacks that could lead to a full-scale war.
Armenia Agrees to Return Villages to Azerbaijan
Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed on the transfer of ownership of four strategically located villages near their shared border. The villages in question — Baghanis Ayrum, Asagi Eskipara, Heyrimli, and Kizilhacili — have been under Armenian control since the early 1990s and are situated close to Armenia's main highway leading to the Georgian border. This highway serves as a vital trade route for Armenia and is also the path for a pipeline that delivers Russian gas to the country, making the transfer a significant concession by the Armenian government.
The agreement has implications beyond the immediate peace process. By gaining control over territory through which natural gas pipelines are built, Azerbaijan is potentially securing a source of future leverage. The strategic location of the villages gives Azerbaijan the ability to exert significant pressure on Armenia's energy security, which could, in turn, impact Yerevan's political and economic stability. This development comes just as Russia's role in the region is already under scrutiny. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh this week has raised questions about Moscow's ability to maintain its traditional sphere of influence. The Russian force was tasked with maintaining security and controlling the Lachin corridor.
Russia's decision to withdraw is not merely a response to the changing situation on the ground but also a calculated political move. By pulling out its troops, Russia is effectively undermining Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has shown an inclination towards closer ties with NATO countries. This stance is perceived by Moscow as a threat to its influence in the region, and the withdrawal of support can be seen as a form of retribution and pressure on the Armenian government. In contrast, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has sought to maintain a more balanced relationship with Russia, aiming to preserve stability and secure beneficial economic and military partnerships.
As Russia pulls back, the United States, the EU, as well as France, Greece, and India, has actively sought to fill the power vacuum in Armenia by providing military assistance and support. While these efforts may temporarily bolster Armenia's position, they are unlikely to prevent a potential military crisis in the long run and may even contribute to postponing an inevitable clash. The US and EU's involvement is driven by a mix of strategic, economic, and geopolitical considerations, with objectives to reduce their energy dependence on Russia, counter Moscow's relationships in the region, and create new opportunities for trade that exclude Russia.
Chad Joins Niger in Demanding US Troop Withdrawal
This week, the Sahel region witnessed developments in security as Chad demanded the withdrawal of United States troops from the strategically important Adji Kossei airbase in N'Djamena. This move follows a similar decision by neighbouring Niger, which recently announced the termination of its military agreement with the US, requiring the pull-out of approximately 1,000 American soldiers. These developments are part of a broader trend among Sahelian nations seeking to assert their sovereignty and diversify their international partnerships, moving away from traditional Western allies and towards powers like Russia.
The loss of access to military bases in Chad and Niger would have tangible impacts on US surveillance and operational capabilities in the Sahel. These bases have played a crucial role in US efforts to monitor and combat armed groups in the region, providing intelligence and serving as staging grounds for operations. The withdrawal of US forces from these facilities could limit the country's ability to gather timely information on the activities of armed groups and respond effectively to perceived threats. This, in turn, could have implications for regional security, particularly if the capacity of local security forces is not sufficiently strengthened to fill the gap.
Despite substantial investments in security assistance and development aid, the US has faced challenges in translating these efforts into lasting influence. The decision by Niger to terminate its military agreement is a clear indication of these limitations. In anticipation of a potential withdrawal, the US had already begun exploring alternative locations in West Africa to station its drones and other assets. This preparation suggests a recognition of the need to adapt to changing circumstances and find new ways to pursue its interests in the region.
The Sahel is becoming an increasingly complex and competitive arena, with a range of state and non-state actors seeking to advance their interests and shape the future of the region. The US and other Western powers are confronting a situation where their traditional sources of influence and leverage may no longer be as effective, requiring a reassessment of their engagement strategies. The region faces a multitude of interconnected challenges, all of which have contributed to a fragile security environment.
Monday, April 15th
Iran Conducts Telegraphed Retaliatory Strike — TWZ
Saudi Arabia Files UN Complaint Against the UAE Over Disputed Islands — Middle East Eye
Belgium Postpones Frigate Deployment to Red Sea — Defense News
Singapore Cracks Down on Weapons Sales to Myanmar — Al Jazeera
Russian Refineries Recovering from Ukrainian Drone Attacks — Reuters
Nuclear Energy Faces Financing Hurdles Despite Global Renaissance — Oil Price
Tuesday, April 16th
China Eases Import Controls on German Agricultural Products — Nikkei
Argentina Finalizes Purchase of 24 F-16 Fighter Jets from Denmark — Defense News
Russia Adapts to Evolving US Commercial Space Strategy — Jamestown
Italy Emerges as Another Power Backing Azerbaijan — Eurasianet
US Navy Unveils Plans to Convert Oil Rigs into Missile Defence Bases — Asia Times
Adapting Tactical Sustainment in an Era of Battlefield Transparency — RUSI
Wednesday, April 17th
Russian Peacekeepers Withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh — Le Monde
Australia Positioned to Lead the Global Critical Minerals Race — ASPI
Poland Changes Stance on European Sky Shield Initiative — Defense News
Europe Moving Forward with Hydrogen Production — Oil Price
Drought Triggers Energy Crisis in Ecuador and Colombia — Al Jazeera
US Inflation Reduction Act Lures European Solar Firms — Reuters
Thursday, April 18th
Jordan Faces Increased Security Risks — Stratfor
Qatar Re-evaluates its Mediation Role with Hamas — Al-Monitor
LME Russian Metal Ban Reshapes Global Trade Dynamics — MetalMiner
Russia-China Relationship: Alignment, Not Alliance — Russia Matters
US Reimposes Oil Sanctions on Venezuela — Al Jazeera
Gulf States Diversify UAV Acquisitions — IISS
Friday, April 19th
Israel Launches Limited Strike on Iran — Financial Times
Chad Demands US Withdrawal from Key Military Base — Bloomberg
Russia's Grain Diplomacy Challenges Western Dominance — Asia Times
China Strengthens Ties with Indonesia During Leadership Transition — Nikkei
US Vetoes UN Resolution Granting Palestine Full Membership — Middle East Eye
Micronesian President's Visit to China Signals Shift in Strategic Balancing — The Diplomat
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