In Geopolitics This Week
Algeria Suspends Trade Ties with Spain, Turkish-Greek Relations Deteriorating Once More, Russia Halts Fisheries Deal with Japan, and other stories.
Algeria Suspends Trade Ties with Spain
Algeria has decided to suspend all trade in products and services with Spain due to its role in legitimizing the status of Western Sahara as Moroccan territory. Algeria's banking association ordered stopping payments to and from Spain, affecting all trade between the two countries except for energy transfers. The move comes soon after Algeria suspended a 20-year-old friendship treaty with Spain that committed the two sides to cooperate in overseeing migration flows.
Algiers was angered when Spain openly supported a Moroccan plan to incorporate Western Sahara as an autonomous region of Morocco earlier this year. The region was annexed by Morocco in 1975, and since then, Algeria and Morocco have disagreed fiercely over the fate of Western Sahara. Algeria backs the separatist Polisario Front movement which is seeking full independence, while Morocco regards the territory as its own. In response to the breakdown of trade ties, the Spanish government vowed to “firmly defend” Spanish national interests in light of Algeria's decision.
The European Union has stepped in and urged Algeria to reverse its decision to halt trade with Spain. However, supporting the Polisario is a cornerstone of Algeria’s foreign policy, and it may prove difficult for the EU to persuade Algeria to change course without concessions from Spain. Deteriorating relations between Spain and Algeria come at a time when the EU is pushing member states to reduce reliance on Russian energy, and Algeria is a viable alternative source of natural gas for the bloc. Algeria could reroute exports to support Italy and other European countries downstream to wean off Russian gas.
Turkish-Greek Relations Deteriorating Once More
When the war in Ukraine began, Greece and Turkey appeared to have put to one side some of their differences as tensions between Ankara and Athens eased. In March, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis travelled to Istanbul for talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a rare high-level political meeting between the two Aegean rivals which both parties suggested was positive and constructive.
Since then, however, relations between the two have deteriorated rapidly. Athens has protested at a number of recent airspace violations by Turkish aircraft over Greece’s Aegean islands. Mitsotakis then raised the issue of Turkey’s behaviour to the US Congress as he sought to convince US lawmakers to oppose the sale of F-16s to Ankara. Erdogan responded to the statements made by Mitsotakis with fury and said he no longer recognizes Greece’s prime minister. Tensions have flared recently over islands in the Aegean, with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu issuing a statement which accused Athens of unlawfully militarizing Turkish territories in the Aegean Sea.
With the signing of Treaty of Lausanne in 1923, the two countries agreed to the establishment of a fixed frontier across the Aegean Sea. As part of the treaty, Athens retained most of the major islands off the Anatolian coast with the commitment to not build any “naval base and no fortification” on these territories. The treaty also restricts military overflights by Greek and Turkish aircraft along the Aegean and limits the positioning of soldiers on the Greek islands. Should Greece refuse to “demilitarize” its Aegean islands, Turkish officials have warned, Greek sovereignty over Aegean islands would be put into question by Ankara.
For policymakers in both Greece and Turkey, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought about new risks and opportunities for pursuing divergent goals in the Aegean. In Athens, the war in Ukraine reinforced fears of Turkish military power, which prompted Greek officials to strengthen ties with Washington. In Ankara, the conflict has altered Turkish security calculations in the Black Sea and reinforced fears of increased military cooperation between the United States and Greece.
While neither side has perceived Russia’s invasion as an opportunity for escalation, rival national narratives and interpretations of international law, coupled with mutual distrust, have increased the risk of conflict in the Aegean considerably. While a war over the Aegean between Greece and Turkey remains unlikely, the increasingly divergent interpretations of history and international law may prove intractable to solve.
Russia Halts Fisheries Deal with Japan
Russia’s foreign ministry has said it is suspending an agreement with Japan that granted fishing rights to Japanese fishermen in the vicinity of the disputed Southern Kuril islands. Moscow has accused the Japanese government of freezing cooperation payments usually made as part of the fishing deal. Russia's decision to suspend the agreement further strains bilateral ties between the two countries. Energy and fishing are central pillars in the two countries' economic relationship, and cooperation across both sectors is falling rapidly.
Relations between Tokyo and Moscow have deteriorated since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Japan has joined its allies in condemning. Following Tokyo’s imposition of sanctions on Russia, Moscow placed Japan on a list of “unfriendly countries,” and relations since then have only worsened. Moscow has withdrawn from economic cooperation projects and halted talks aimed towards a peace treaty resolving the status of the disputed Kuril islands. Russian and Chinese strategic bombers have also conducted a major joint naval patrol around Japan. At the same time, Tokyo has began to use diplomatic language which accuses Russia of illegally occupying four disputed islands in the Kuril island chain.
Japan's Foreign Ministry responded to Russia’s withdrawal from the fishing rights deal by calling the move “unacceptable” and urging Moscow to abide by the agreement. The suspension of a fishing rights agreement is a demonstration of Moscow's ability to selectively counter economic and diplomatic pressure over its invasion of Ukraine. For Tokyo, the loss of access to fisheries around the Northern Territories will impact local livelihoods and Japan’s food security. China-Russia fishing cooperation has grown considerably in the last decade too, with Chinese fishing vessels operating off Russia’s northeast coast. If Moscow sells similar licenses to Chinese fishing vessels instead, Japan could experience considerable difficulties within its fishing industry.