In Geopolitics This Week
Nicaragua Flips From Taiwan to China, Armenia’s Relations with Turkey are Thawing, NATO Rebuilds Ukraine’s Navy, and other stories.
I will be taking some time off over the next few weeks so this will be the last publication of the year. Thank you for taking the time to read the newsletter over the last few months, and rest assured that it will return sometime in January. Happy holidays!
Monday, December 13th
Nicaragua Flips From Taiwan to China
Daniel Ortega’s Sandinista government first switched relations from Taiwan to China in December 1985. Then in 1990, the decision was reversed shortly after Violeta Chamorro came to power. In 2007, Ortega returned to power in Nicaragua yet chose to maintain the country’s recognition of Taiwan over China. But Nicaragua has chosen to change its diplomatic stance again, now recognizing the People’s Republic of China in Beijing following a recent announcement on December 9. The move will displease policymakers in Washington to whom it will symbolise an acceleration of China’s increasing influence in the Western Hemisphere.
What follows is unclear, but it is reasonable to expect that Ortega’s government may bolster military cooperation with China in some capacity. Historically, regional governments which oppose US interests have proceeded to purchase arms from China, as has been the case in Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Argentina. Based on more recent cases in the region where countries have chosen to recognise Beijing over Taipei, officials from Ortega’s government are likely to sign a series of Memoranda of Understanding. These will probably cover economic, trade and infrastructure investments, and could potentially include the transfer of weapons. But any such deals would draw the attention of the United States, which could kick Nicaragua out of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement, and employ other harsh sanctions as punishment for deepening military ties with Beijing.
Interests further conflict between Managua and Washington because Nicaragua is also one of Russia’s closest partners in the Western Hemisphere. Closer alignment with Beijing will attract investments, allowing the country to continue to expand defence ties with Moscow. A Nicaragua which is able to resist US attempts at enforced isolation is an unfavourable state of affairs for Washington, and part of this is a fear that it would embolden other anti-US voices in the region. If Honduras also chooses to recognize China over Taiwan, it will mean Guatemala and Belize will be the only governments in Central America that do not recognize Beijing. And the Western Hemisphere could change further still within months, as elections in Costa Rica (February 2022), Colombia (May 2022) and Brazil (October 2022) could further complicate the situation.
Read more about this story here.
South Korea Enters Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Australia
Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison and South Korean President Moon Jae-in have signed a $717m defence deal which forms a part of deepening strategic ties between the two countries. The contract was signed during a four-day visit by Moon to Canberra, and will see South Korean defence company Hanwha provide the Australian army with artillery weapons, supply vehicles and radars. It is the largest defence contract ever signed between Australia and an Asian nation, and comes at a time of heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific between Canberra and Beijing.
This year marks the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries, and in that time South Korea and Australia have become close trade partners, especially since the two signed a free trade agreement that has been in force since 2014. During their discussions, Moon and Morrison agreed to upgrade formal ties between their nations to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” Moon said South Korea shared similar values and geopolitical outlook with Australia, and that his visit to Canberra was important to the “national interest” of Korea. At the same time, Moon also stressed that South Korea’s relationship with China was important, and that he desires a “harmonised relationship” between the United States and China in the region. The leaders also expressed a desire to deepen cooperation on clean energy technologies and critical minerals.
While South Korea has previously maintained a foreign policy based solely on North Korea, in recent years Seoul has been pursuing a more multi-faceted approach to foreign relations. South Korea is one of the ‘big tech’ leaders in both the commercial and defence worlds, and has built up its navy’s surface and sub-surface capabilities to be better able to conduct offensive regional engagements. Australia makes a natural customer for South Korean arms too, as the armed forces of both countries are interoperable with US military units, so the transfer of military technology is likely to be welcomed in Washington. Engaging with regional players while building up force structure for its military, South Korea is showing a more active side to foreign policy in the region as it looks to play a part in the wider region.
Read more about this story here.
Tuesday, December 14th
Armenia’s Relations with Turkey are Thawing
Armenia and Turkey have signalled a mutual willingness to move towards restoring diplomatic relations. After almost four decades have passed since borders between the two countries were closed, Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has expressed his readiness to reconcile ties with Turkey “without preconditions.” Turkey has been receptive to the idea, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating that Ankara would be open to a diplomatic normalisation if Armenia expressed a “readiness to move in this direction.” The long-time foes have much to gain economically and politically if both go through with their pledges on normalisation.
Diplomatic relations between the two countries have long been defined by the mass killing of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire during World War I. Years later, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, ties between Armenia and Turkey were again severed after the first Nagorno-Karabakh war. Since then, ties have remained indifferent at best. Turkey’s military assistance to Azerbaijan in last year’s iteration of the Nagorno-Karabakh war was instrumental in the eventual Azeri victory over Armenia. As a consequence of recent developments, Yerevan is keen to combat its regional economic and trade isolation at a time when Turkey’s strength is waning, and when it might be more open to deal directly with Yerevan without upsetting leadership in Baku.
Nevertheless, both stand to benefit economically from a move towards normalisation. As it stands, Armenia has closed borders with two of the four countries it borders, hindering access to Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union for many in the region. Yet as a landlocked state, Armenia could stand to benefit from an open border and active trade, which could work to facilitate economic development. Improving relations with Ankara may also allow Yerevan to rely less on Russia, thereby changing regional politics to an environment more conductive to Turkish interests going forward. In addition, Turkey may also gain geopolitically by facilitating positive relations between Yerevan and Baku, allowing Ankara to reap the political, economic, and diplomatic value derived from regional trade going forward.
Read more about this story here.
NATO Rebuilds Ukraine’s Navy
When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, it absorbed land, people and roughly 70 percent of Ukraine’s naval fleet. The losses were so great, they included the majority of Ukraine’s helicopters and the bulk of the country’s ship repair capacity. With the naval base at Sevastopol now gone, the Ukrainian Navy essentially set out to create a new naval force. In the time since then, close cooperation with the United States, the United Kingdom and other NATO members has allowed Ukraine to quickly rebuild its fleet in tandem with its ground and special operations forces.
Now Ukraine is eager to invest in naval capabilities as the country joins interoperability operations with NATO forces. In practical terms, Ukraine’s efforts at rebuilding its naval capabilities have so far led to a fleet of small vessels fit for carrying out near-shore operations. Ukraine is deliberately rebuilding its navy with ships obtained from NATO nations in the hopes that implementing NATO-compliant standards aboard NATO-sourced vessels within the Ukrainian Navy will speed up the country’s NATO accession process. In addition, the Ukrainian Navy now regularly participates in regional NATO exercises and operations, such as the Black Sea Maritime Domain Awareness project, which is led by the United States and involves Bulgaria, Georgia and Romania.
Of the vessels Ukraine is seeking for its Navy, the country is rumoured to have already placed a formal request to purchase two Ada-class corvettes. These advanced multipurpose corvettes are able to conduct a wide range of missions, including reconnaissance, surveillance, anti-submarine warfare, surface-to-surface and surface-to-air warfare. In addition, Ukraine has received two of the five expected former US Coastguard ships. Going forward, this trend may continue as Kiev pours more of its resources toward increased naval capabilities in the Black Sea.
Read more about this story here.
Wednesday, December 15th
Qatar Agrees Diamond Trade Deal with Israel
After years of an official boycott and strong opposition to the Abraham Accords, Qatar has reached an agreement with Israel on rules for conducting the trade of diamonds. Official ties between Israel and Qatar were broken off in 2009 when the Israeli Air Force launched Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip. Since then, the two countries have coordinated on very few matters, and have not conducted diplomatic missions in public. But as Israeli ties with other Gulf states have warmed, Qatar is increasingly coming to terms with the reality that Israel is now an important player in the region.
Following the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, Qatar made clear that its participation in the Accords hinged on a solution to the dispute with the Palestinians. But given the unlikelihood of such a solution, Qatar has nonetheless wanted to avoid being left out in the new diplomatic balance in the Middle East. The agreement between Israel and Qatar over the diamond trade could be a sign of a thaw in relations, which could preclude various economic and political agreements, even if not quite full normalization. The reasoning for Doha’s policy change is unclear, but the economic and commercial appeal of the Accords may have attracted Qatari investors, which could open the door for limited cooperation between the two countries.
Qatar was aware that without Israeli agreement, its businesses couldn't operate as legitimate actors within the regional diamond industry. Doha now intends to set up a free trade zone that will specialize in the trade of precious stones and gold. While the move still requires final approval by the members of the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme and approval by the Diamond Exchange Federation, Israeli opposition was a significant barrier to Qatari participation in the diamond trade. For Israel, such a thawing of relations could also prove beneficial as warming ties with Qatar could distance Doha from Israeli adversaries in the region.
Read more about this story here.
Russia Holds Talks with China
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have held a video call in which they are said to have discussed bilateral relations and global affairs. In recent years, China and Russia have chosen to more closely align their foreign policies in an effort to counteract US dominance of the international economic and political order. In doing so, they have raised concerns in Washington, where policymakers are increasingly worried about an enduring Moscow-Beijing alliance. Washington is invested in both Ukraine and Taiwan, and these are the two areas where Russia and China are applying pressure to achieve their respective policy priorities.
During their call, Putin and Xi hailed relations between Russia and China, and both leaders emphasized their shared commitment to the principles of mutual internal non-interference and respect for the other’s interests. Putin is said to have stressed to Xi that the United States and NATO are presenting “mounting threats” to Russia’s national interests by moving military infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders. When Putin raised the set of legally binding security guarantees which he requested of Biden, Xi responded by saying he “understands Russia's concerns” and that he “fully supports” Russia’s efforts to secure these legally binding security guarantees. Beyond their publicly released statements, the two leaders likely held a long conversation with a broad agenda including energy, trade and investment.
Perhaps the most substantial part of the talks were the optics of the talks themselves. While both leaders agreed to deepen ties going forward, the meeting bore no concrete agreements. Instead, the statements allude to a public show of strong bilateral relations which, while not between treaty-bound allies, increasingly show signs of deep cooperation across all economic and some military sectors. Both leaders described relations between the two countries as an example of genuine inter-state cooperation for others to admire. Going forward, leadership in Russia and China will make attempts at further integrating the Eurasian Economic Union with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Read more about this story here.
Thursday, December 16th
NATO Integration Toward a Strategically Responsible Europe
Over the last ten years, the EU has withstood numerous crises while maintaining a steady pace at integration. At the same time, the still ongoing migration crisis in Europe has revealed strong disagreement within the Union on how to best jointly tackle such issues. This has meant that EU member states have had to take border security into their own hands, with some at times taking unilateral action against the wishes of Brussels. Whether the European security landscape will turn toward increased unilateralism or even closer regional coordination within NATO remains to be seen.
While NATO has long served as a parallel security architecture to most EU member states, the organisation has in many ways adapted to the EU by developing political functions that align with the EU’s coordination processes between member states. NATO is now heavily involved with EU institutions and missions in joint military exercises held in the Baltic and the Black Seas. Washington maintains a strategic interest in curbing Russian influence, and has for years developed strong bilateral ties with countries here that even go beyond NATO partnerships. Meanwhile, China’s rapid rise to becoming a regional power has increased US concerns about China’s role in the Pacific, which has led to the numerous US requests for increased military spending from fellow NATO member states throughout the last decade.
Europe is thus under pressure to spend money on defence measures at an economically difficult time. And now, as the crisis in Ukraine flares up again, the EU is looking for an effective response to a potential Russian attack on Ukraine. Yet with few tools available to approach the situation from a position of strength, Brussels must turn to NATO — and by definition the United States — for the best chance of influencing affairs on the ground or at the negotiating table with Russia.
Read more about this story here.
Russia to Deepen Defence Ties with Mongolia
Following the occasion celebrating the centenary since diplomatic relations were established between Mongolia and the Russian Federation, the two countries have agreed to continue their special relationship into the future. In the span of a century, the two countries have shared common historical, political, and social ties due to both geography and politics. This latest round of agreements intend to deepen Russian and Mongolian cooperation in the field of defence and security according to a joint declaration.
A recent visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin saw the two countries sign a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, and this week’s meeting will build on that agreement by boosting bilateral cooperation in a range of spheres. In the discussions, Putin said both countries will continue to maintain very close cooperation in the energy sector, and pointed out that there are opportunities going forward for joint nuclear energy development projects. Both agreed to intensify implementation of the roadmap for the development of the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. The meetings also saw the signing of a document on new border checkpoints and a simplified system for goods transiting the Russian-Mongolian state border.
Recently, Mongolia has accelerated foreign policy activities with its neighbours in an attempt to diversify its mining-dependent economy. At the same time, Russia is increasingly looking toward the Asian markets to boost Russian trade, a process which is promising to Mongolia as it would provide a much-needed economic boost. Before any broad trade agreements can be penned however, Moscow and Ulaanbaatar must first ensure the necessary security environment conductive to trade. To work toward such a future, both sides are now signalling a greater intent to cooperate on defence, with recent discussions dominated by matters such as combating terrorism, extremism, separatism, and transnational organized crime. Nevertheless, while the agreements made between Moscow and Ulaanbaatar may boost security in the region, a 3,452 km border with little infrastructure will be difficult and costly to secure for years to come.
Read more about this story here.
Friday, December 17th
Turkey Hosts 3rd Turkey-Africa Partnership Summit
The 3rd Turkey-Africa Partnership Summit began with a meeting of high-level government officials in Istanbul. The summit is scheduled to launch a new stage in Turkey’s relations with its African partners. The two-day summit agenda includes a review of existing partnerships as well as the drafting of a new framework for the partnership process for the years ahead. The Summit is expected to adopt a plan for concrete actions to be implemented jointly by Turkey, the African Union (AU) and its member States.
The action plan to be adopted will include commitments to strengthening collaboration on health, peace, security, governance and justice, human development and sustainable growth. The summit will see closer cooperation between Turkey and AU member states, and will translate to capacity building trainings, judicial cooperation, support against terrorist offences, as well as security cooperation agreements. The Summit will also see agreements concluded on the side-lines. Nigeria, for example, has already held discussions with Turkish officials before the Summit began. Similarly, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the side-lines of the Summit, though there were few signs that the two agreed on anything concrete.
Turkey's footprint in Africa has grown rapidly with bilateral trade volume between Turkey and ĀU member states rising from $5.4bn in 2003 to $25.3bn in 2020. Over the same period, Turkish foreign direct investment in the African continent grew from $100m to $6.5bn, with Turkish companies becoming an increasingly common sight. Turkish economic activity here largely revolves around trade and investments in construction, steel, textiles, consumer electronics and household goods. Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, has acknowledged that Ankara's approach to its relations with Africa is “strategic” and aimed at the “long term,” and so Ankara is keen to gradually develop deep ties with African countries, with trade and security deals taking up a central role in this approach.
Read more about this story here.
India Bolsters Infrastructure on Strategic Islands
The Indian Ocean is re-emerging as a critical theatre for strategic competition. In particular, the critically-situated Andaman and Nicobar Islands could significantly alter the maritime dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. Their primary benefit today for India lies in furthering maritime awareness and maintaining a naval advantage. But as China expands its presence in the region and becomes a critical partner to other coastal states in South Asia, India must position itself in accordance with this new reality. Officials in New Delhi have therefore begun to formulate a new maritime approach to retain India’s prominence in the region.
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands have long been neglected in Delhi’s list of strategic and political priorities. However, now there appears more enthusiasm in New Delhi for maritime security as China’s growing naval capabilities make officials in India nervous. The islands have seen the installation of advanced sensors and SMS dissemination systems, automated weather states, operation centres, and other military-minded facilities in the last five years. These developments show how New Delhi is fortifying its southern frontier at sea, and such moves are set to continue across the region as increased competition here provides a theatre of opportunity for India.
While India has long neglected its naval priorities, the maritime domain provides an opportunity for the country to establish itself as a leading regional actor. To enhance the connectivity and prominence of the islands, New Delhi has sought to enter into international partnerships with regional players. This has culminated in indications that the Thai government plans to connect its Ranong port with the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Similarly, India has established a special task force jointly with Indonesia which promises to develop connectivity between the port of Sabang and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. These maritime connections will contribute to a broader attempt by India to balance against a rising and assertive China.
Read more about this story here.