In Geopolitics This Week
Russia Shifts Focus of the War in Ukraine Toward the East, A Two-Month Truce Agreed in the War in Yemen, US Seeks to Limit Russian Energy Exports, and other stories.
Russia Shifts Focus of the War in Ukraine Toward the East
Russia appears to have revised its military campaign plans in Ukraine after failing to swiftly topple the Ukrainian government via the seizure of Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities. Now, Russian officials claim that the focus of the country’s war effort is shifting toward eastern Ukraine, with some military forces withdrawing from the outskirts of Kiev and relocating toward the Donbas. Russia’s war effort now appears to be largely focused on consolidating its gains throughout Ukraine while a concentration of Russian forces seek to capture the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in their entirety.
Russia revised its campaign plan in Ukraine after the apparent failure of its initial thrust to capture Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities. The initial campaign utilizing airborne and mechanized units to seize Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa, and other major Ukrainian cities as a means of accomplishing a change of government in Kiev has stalled. Still, most Russian forces remain in place, and Russia continues to target Kiev with long-range artillery from the ground and missile strikes from the air. But while the Russian military continues to send reinforcements and munitions into areas of control around Kiev, Russian forces appear to have largely halted these efforts as its forces begin a new phase of deployments to eastern Ukraine. This marks a new structure and prioritization of Russian operations, potentially signalling a change in the political and military objectives of Russia more broadly and the posture of Russian forces on the ground in the coming days and weeks more specifically.
Given that the Russian political leadership has publicly announced a shift in the focus of its war effort in Ukraine, and that the movements of Russia’s armed forces appear to echo these statements, Russian military power is expected to be concentrated around the Oblasts of Donetsk and Lugansk in the coming days. As such, Russia’s armed forces can reasonably be expected to attempt to capture and secure the city of Mariupol while simultaneously launching offensives on territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts held by Ukrainian armed forces. To achieve these goals, Russia is increasingly redeploying troops from other axes of advance into eastern Ukraine. As Russian forces move eastward, ground operations conducted on other fronts in the days ahead should be significantly weakened and limited in scope.
By shifting its political and military goals toward the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, Moscow may be seeking to surround Ukrainian forces positioned in the East by conducting spearhead movements from the North and South of Ukraine in an effort to encircle Ukrainian forces positioned at the line of contact in the East while also working to capture territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. In such a scenario, Russia would be able to leverage its gains through some form of negotiated settlement with Ukraine and claim victory in achieving some of its war aims. This would align with one part of the stated goals of the Russian invasion, as Moscow has insisted that its invasion is partly justified by a need to protect Russian citizens in Donetsk and Luhansk. But to do so may come at a great cost to Russia, and it remains unclear whether this new phase of the war is indeed planned or merely a recalibration of Russian objectives following failures to achieve aims elsewhere in Ukraine.
A Two-Month Truce Agreed in the War in Yemen
The warring sides in Yemen’s seven-year conflict have agreed to a two-month truce. The UN-brokered deal between the Saudi-led coalition and the rebel Houthi group is the most significant step towards ending the conflict since war broke out in 2015. Under the terms of the agreed truce, the parties will halt all offensive military air, ground, and maritime operations both inside Yemeni territory and across its borders. In addition, Saudi Arabia will allow fuel shipments to enter into Yemeni ports and commercial flights to begin operating in and out of Sana’a airport.
The latest efforts at establishing a lasting truce appear to have developed unilaterally in the initial stages of negotiation. On the 26th of March, not long after Houthi forces successful attacked Saudi oil facilities near Jeddah, Houthi officials announced a unilateral ceasefire covering all trans-border attacks and ground operations inside Yemen, and stated that the ceasefire would remain in effect if Saudi forces lifted their blockade on Houthi-controlled ports and airports. Saudi Arabia responded with a unilateral ceasefire announcement of their own on the 29th of March, as Saudi officials sought to negotiate a major prisoner swap. This general atmosphere of détente appears to have succeeded in pushing for the establishment of the two-month truce.
But this is not the first time a cessation of hostilities has been announced in the war in Yemen, and the last such coordinated ceasefire broke down because neither side had adequate incentives to refrain from the use of force. The difference this time may stem from the fact that Houthi forces have proven they possess an ability to consistently damage Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure on Saudi territory, a vulnerability that even additional US-made Patriot missile systems have not been able to remedy. Similarly, the UAE — which is another party fighting as part of the Saudi-led coalition — has likely made similar calculations after Houthi drones struck Abu Dhabi earlier in the year. Even though both countries field more advanced weapons systems and have attained numerous guarantees of US defence assistance, neither state has been able to counter the threat that Houthi missiles and drones continue to pose within their borders.
The truce between the Saudi-led coalition and Houthi rebels came into effect at 16:00 GMT on Saturday, and can be extended further if both sides agree. The announcement of the truce followed the second day of intense peace talks held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, after which Hans Grundberg, a UN special envoy, declared that all parties to the conflict accepted to halt “offensive military air, ground and maritime operations” in Yemen and across borders. Outside of a halt in direct military engagements, the truce will allow fuel shipments to reach the rebel-held port of al-Hudaydah on the Red Sea and commercial flights to operate from the airport in the rebel-held capital Sana’a. Moreover, roads which lead into the south-western city of Taiz will also be opened. In effect, the diplomatic breakthrough achieved between all parties to the conflict will work to build trust between the belligerents going forward, all of which are suffering from some level of strategic exhaustion as the war is in its eighth year.
US Seeks to Limit Russian Energy Exports
The United States is employing a combination of harsh sanctions and diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing the ability of Russia to find customers for its vast energy exports. But with wide-ranging sanctions drastically reducing the price of Russian oil and gas, countries which have not joined the US-led sanctions regime are eager to take advantage of cheap Russian energy for their own domestic needs. This has led to Washington applying pressure to those considering buying Russian energy in a bid to cut off sources of revenue for the Russian state.
Indonesia is one such state, with Jakarta reportedly considering whether the country should increase purchases of Russian fuel in an effort to ease rising consumer prices at home. Representatives of Indonesia’s state-owned energy firm PT Pertamina have expressed a desire to purchase Russian crude oil due to the attractiveness of its low price. But Russian energy imports are somewhat poisoned commodities, which means that Jakarta must be careful if it is to avoid backlash from Washington. For now, no deal over increasing energy purchases from Russia has been made, yet Indonesia has sought to maintain a neutral stance on the war in Ukraine, and this neutrality may help to facilitate any energy deal with Russia. Finding a way to buy cheap Russian energy while avoiding punishment from the US would significantly reduce the severity of the energy crisis gripping Indonesia.
Similarly, India is exploring ways of increasing purchases of discounted Russian energy. Yet as discussions between Russia and India took place, the US sought to prevent a significant deal from being signed by issuing a warning to New Delhi. Just like Indonesia, India is looking to take advantage of a considerable discount in the price of Russian energy, yet Washington has sought to make clear to officials in New Delhi that a major energy deal with Moscow may prove costly for India. US officials reportedly issued a warning to Indian officials by stating that buying more oil from Russia could expose India to a “great risk.” The unnamed source is reported as stating that while the US has no “objection” to India buying Russian oil, New Delhi must ensure that any energy deal with Moscow does not cover “significantly increasing” volumes.
Washington’s threat to New Delhi comes as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held meetings with Indian officials, and a day after US and UK officials sought to persuade the Indian government to more closely align its policies with the US-led sanctions regime. US Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics, Daleep Singh, said that the United States did not want to see a “rapid acceleration” in energy purchases between India and Russia. This puts India in a precarious position, as New Delhi can ill-afford to alienate Russia, a long-time ally and major arms supplier. At the same time, cheap Russian energy presents a unique opportunity for India — one of the top energy importers in the world — to source its energy at prices well below the market value for non-Russian sources of energy.